Stage 17 – Canazei > Sega di Ala (193km)

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Stage 16 Result

1st Egan BERNAL (5/1); 2nd Romain BARDET (50/1); 3rd Damiano CARUSO (66/1); 4th Giulio CICCONE (33/1)

Recommended:

Antonio Pedrero 2pts each way (4 places) @18/1

Alex Cepeda 0.5pts each way (4 places) @66/1

Jan Hirt 2pts each way (4 places) @16/1

João Almeida 1pt each way (4 places) @25/1

Koen Bouwman 2pts each way (4 places) @16/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

Terrible weather conditions on the morning of the race resulted in a shortened stage of 155km and, significantly, the removal of the first-category Passo Fedaia and the Cima Coppi Passo Pordoi. A pack of 21 riders got clear on the first climb, however, a strong group of six (Almeida, Formolo, Nibali, Pedrero, Izagirre and Ghebreigzabhier) forged a gap on the descent and pushed on.

Surprisingly, EF took it up on the front – showing confidence in Carthy – and reduced the gap to 2mins by the foot of the Passo Giao. Formolo attacked from the break but was caught and passed by Pedrero who showed to be the strongest in the group.

A very select group of GC contenders got to within 30secs of Pedrero when Bernal attacked decisively and took firm control of the Giro, now 2mins 24secs ahead of Caruso in second. Yates was a big GC loser – 2mins 37secs behind on the day – and is probably fighting for the podium now rather than the win. Evenepoel lost over 24mins and, assuming he continues in the race at all, will now be focused on stage wins.

(NB In my view, the amended parcours significantly tilted the stage in favour of the GC contenders and away from a breakaway win, on which the preview and recommended bets were based. It is worth pursuing this with your bookmaker – something that I am currently doing – as in my opinion there is a good case for losing bets to be voided.)

Preview

After a much-needed rest day, the riders go straight into another tough mountain stage which ends with two first-category climbs – the Passo di San Valentino (14.8km at 7.8%) and up to Sega di Ala (11.2km at 9.8%) – where we should see another shake-up amongst GC contenders, but probably not for the lead itself.   

That final ascent to the summit finish is irregular and goes up in steps, with some high double-digit gradient ramps followed by shallower sections. The decisive final attacks are likely to be launched 3km from the line.

The start complicates the formation of a break as it’s downhill for quite a way, and it may not form until they hit a third-category climb 54km into the stage. Moreover, any break will need several minutes head start before the final climb to have a chance of taking the win.

Contenders

The profile for this stage – a 40km valley floor for some big engines to drive the front followed by two serious climbs and a summit finish – suggests a GC battle to play out and take the stage. However, it’s a bit more complicated than that. After attacking rides on stages 9,11 and 14, Egan Bernal is safely ensconced in the pink jersey, a comfortable 2mins 24secs ahead of his nearest challenger, Damiano Caruso. There is therefore no onus on Bernal’s team Ineos to pull hard on the front. Having built this advantage, they can ride defensively all the way to Milan and protect Bernal’s lead, should they choose. 

What’s more, when other teams have taken to the front to assert some pressure, it hasn’t necessarily worked out that well. Astana–Premier Tech drove very hard in the valley and lower slopes of the Zoncolan, only for Aleksandr Vlasov to lose over a minute to Bernal. And on the shortened stage 16, EF Education–Nippo took to the front with some great rides from Tejay Van Garderen, Alberto Bettiol and Simon Carr, but then Hugh Carthy couldn’t attack off the pace and lost time to Bernal, Caruso and Romain Bardet (though did move up on GC after Vlasov and Simon Yates went backwards). 

So I’m not sure how much motivation there will be from other teams to take it on and risk blowing themselves up. And as Ineos don’t need to ride hard, we may see quite a defensive stage with the break allowed a big lead (which they’ll need going up the final climb) and taking the stage win before a few GC fireworks on the upper slopes of the final climb. 

It is also the day after a rest day and riders are never quite sure how their legs are going to react – this is another factor that might deter an overly-aggressive strategy. Bernal admitted on the rest day that he’s still feeling pain in his back and that it requires daily physio, so having gained enough time to win this race, it would seem unwise to risk aggravating that with a full gas day. 

I think Ineos will control what they have, cover attacks, and if Bernal feels good on the last climb, then he can do his thing. The gradients are such that he could still put up to a minute into his rivals even in that last few kilometres. If it does all come back together, then Bernal is clearly the favourite – he simply looks unbeatable, and it’s difficult to see anyone being able to live with him. Bernal is around 10/3 for the stage, but for the reasons above I think the break has a better than 50% chance of winning the day, so it’s best if we look elsewhere.

As with stage 16, we’re looking for top class climbers who have proven their form and have a big chunk of time on GC to be allowed up the road. Movistar’s Antonio Pedrero can count himself very unlucky – had EF not pulled early on that stage (or indeed if the stage had been in its original form) then he more than likely would have cleared the Passo Giau with a lead and claimed his first pro win. He was very impressive and didn’t panic when Davide Formolo came past him on the lower slopes of that mountain. Pedrero has to be a pick again, though at the slightly shorter price of 16/1. 

At a similar price, Formolo himself was looking the strongest in the six-man break on the Giau, but faded as he got near the top after a super hard day. He’s also now banging on the door of a GC top 10 (11th at 12mins 45secs) which may complicate his moves to get in a break. He’s now one place behind Deceuninck–Quick-Step’s João Almeida who also managed to leapfrog up a few places on stage 16. He may also have trouble from other teams protecting riders in the top 10, and would perhaps not be the pick of the climbers in a break that got away. 

There was initially a group of 21 riders that broke clear on stage 16, only for 15 of them to lose contact on the descent and fail to get back to the front of the race. So we can look to the composition of that group for clues as to who might try again here. 

Bora–Hansgrohe had two men present in that break which was not surprising as they’d lost their team leader, Emanuel Buchman, the day before. Matteo Fabbro and Felix Großschartner have both been loyal domestiques – for Buchmann and for Peter Sagan – in this Giro so far, but they should have an option to stage hunt here. Of the two, Großschartner is probably the better climber, and in fact Fabbro rode for the German on a recent stage in the Tour of the Alps. Großschartner is my second pick at 50/1.

One man disappointingly out of the GC picture is Dan Martin. The Strade stage did for him – emotionally admitting afterwards that he thought the dangerous gravel road stage “wasn’t worth the risk” – but he’s still a formidable climber who came into the Giro in decent form. If Martin makes the break as he did on stage 16, he’s got to be one of the favourites to take the stage. 

Jumbo–Visma have options with George Bennett and Koen Bouwman. Both have been in breakaways and both have had chances to win (Bouwman being the unluckiest with a super-charged peloton chasing him down in the final 500m of dirt road to Campo Felice). I think it’s a toss-up which of them gets up the road, and then which of them would have the best chance of taking a victory. They’re both around 22/1.

What are Team BikeExchange’s goals for the rest of the Giro? Yates was joint favourite with Bernal coming into the race but now looks a podium hopeful at best. Mikel Nieve is a past master at sweeping up a stage victory in the final week of Grand Tours (three times at the Giro, once at the Vuelta) and the Australian team might want to hedge their bets and try for a stage win. Nieve is a best-priced 25/1, but I prefer his teammate Nick Schultz at bigger odds; he’s posted some good top 20 results on the summit finishes so far. 

Antonio Pedrero 2pts each way (4 places) @16/1

Felix Großschartner 1pt each way (4 places) @50/1

Dan Martin 2pts each way (4 places) @16/1 

Koen Bouwman 1pt each way (4 places) @20/1

Nick Schultz 0.5pts each way (4 places) @66/1

Posted 20.17 BST Tue 25th May 2021