Stage 18 – Rovereto > Stradella (231km)

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Stage 17 Result

1st Dan MARTIN (16/1); 2nd João ALMEIDA (25/1); 3rd Simon YATES (25/1); 4th Diego ULISSI (300/1)

Recommended:

Antonio Pedrero 2pts each way (4 places) @16/1

Felix Großschartner 1pt each way (4 places) @50/1

Dan Martin 2pts each way (4 places) @16/1 – 1st

Koen Bouwman 1pt each way (4 places) @20/1

Nick Schultz 0.5pts each way (4 places) @66/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

Chapeau! An incredible ride from Dan Martin. From the time Team BikeExchange took up the chase about 60km from the first climb, the day’s breakaway looked doomed. But the strongest from the original group of 19 – Martin, Moscon, Pedrero (again), and Bouchard – pushed on and kept themselves a couple of minutes clear by the foot of the final climb. Soon after it was just Martin and Pedrero, and then the Irishman alone, to complete career stage wins in each Grand Tour, ultimately winning by just 13secs. 

But there was big drama behind –  first a big pile-up took out Ciccone who had to work super hard to make it back to the group and then was dropped on the climb, losing almost 8mins. Yates attacked around 3km out, Bernal and Martínez followed, but then the pink jersey himself was gapped and lost over a minute. This Giro is very definitely back on.

Profit (+31pts)

Preview

A long day in the saddle across the Po Valley and one that looks pretty flat in the road book. However, there are four small ramps in the last 30km that are perfect launchpads for attacks. After over two weeks of racing, GC teams will be looking for a stress-free day before the final two mountain stages and the time trial in Milan. But plenty of others will see this as their last chance to take something from this Giro.

There are only a few sprint teams left in the field and it would be a big ask for those to police a break, bring it back and set up their sprinter – especially with such a potentially explosive final. Their best option may be to get their chosen man into the break and take their chances.

Contenders

I don’t see this being a straightforward flat stage where a small breakaway group is formed, sprint teams commit men to chasing it down, and the sprinters battle it out up the home straight. The peloton’s ability to control a break and bring it back is a numbers game as much as anything else, and we only have four sprint teams left the race – Bora–Hansgrohe for Peter Sagan, UAE Team Emirates for Fernando Gaviria, Israel Start-Up Nation for Davide Cimolai, and Cofidis Solutions Crèdits for Elia Viviani, and this is definitely not an ideal final for Viviani.

Which means a strong break of anything more than about eight riders would be very difficult, if not impossible to bring back. Moreover, teams could work all day – for well over 200km on this, the longest stage of the Giro – and the race still might not end in a sprint due to the spiky final. And also, it’s last chance saloon for many teams and riders so a small breakaway is unlikely –  dozens of opportunists will want to get up the road to fight for a stage win.

So if they want to win the stage, sprinters will have to make the break, ideally with at least one teammate to help keep the race together when the attacks start flying. 

There are a number of different types of riders who can win this stage – the sprinters that can get over lumps (Sagan, Gaviria, and Cimolai), puncheurs who can attack on the short climbs and get a gap but also pack a punch in a sprint, and strong rouleurs or time trial specialists who can use their power to ride away from a small group. We need to cover all bases in the staking plan. 

The three sprinters are evenly matched but the sprint itself will be slightly downhill, which doesn’t favour Sagan or Cimolai who are much stronger on uphill drags. So we’ll go for Gaviria who’s been unlucky in the Giro despite being very active and deserves to go home with a win. He’s also twice the price of Sagan at around 14/1. 

Looking at the puncheurs, Diego Ulissi clearly had a good rest day – he finished a very impressive fourth on the stage 17 summit finish – and has no team responsibilities now that Davide Formolo’s GC threat is over. He has to be included in what would be his ninth Giro stage win, almost exactly 10 years after his first. Ulissi’s teammate Alessandro Covi has been very active and very present in a number of breakaways. He too has a big chance if he makes the break, but he did have quite a big day out on stage 17.  Gaviria’s leadout man Juan Sebastián Molano is also not without a chance – if UAE manage to get three or four of these up the road then they’ll have serious options.

Alberto Bettiol is high in the market and has had an incredibly impressive Giro – he’s climbing better than ever. In fact, he was Hugh Carthy’s last man on stage 17 – both Tejay Van Garderen and Simon Carr were dropped early – so surely he’s going to be key going into the final mountain stages. He’s best left alone here.

Team DSM’s Nikias Arndt already has two third places to his name and will be looking to better those here. He’s strong, can punch his way up short hills, and has a finish to win from a select group. Arndt is also in.

What about the strong time trial rouleurs? Deceuninck–Quick-Step are still without a win – though they came very close with Almeida on stage 17 – and are sure to be targeting this stage. Mikkel Honoré was involved in the awful crash at the start of stage 15 so could still be suffering. Rémi Cavagna has been relatively quiet since his disappointing fifth on the opening day time trial. He has another chance against the clock on Sunday, but I think he’ll also be looking at this as a big opportunity. Surely the Belgian team won’t go home empty handed? 

Another danger man with a similar profile is Slovenia’s Jan Tratnik who’s impressed on and off the bike with his pleasingly affable interviews. But with Damiano Caruso second on GC and Bahrain–Victorious low on numbers, maybe he’ll be held back to work on the weekend.

Jumbo–Visma’s Edoardo Affini will also be looking forward to Sunday’s time trial, but he’s been one of the standout performers at this year’s Giro. The young Italian almost stole a sprint win on stage 13 and has been a very powerful domestique for his climbers. At a decent 50/1, Affini is our final pick. 

Fernando Gaviria 1pt each way (4 places) @14/1

Diego Ulissi 1pt each way (4 places) @14/1

Nikias Arndt 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1

Rémi Cavagna 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1

Edoardo Affini 0.5pts each way (4 places) @50/1

Posted 20.14 BST Wed 26th May 2021