Stage 19 – Abbiategrasso > Alpe di Mera (166km)

Profile

Stage 18 Result

1st Alberto BETTIOL (12/1); 2nd Simone CONSONNI (66/1); 3rd Nicolas ROCHE (150/1); Nikias ARNDT (40/1)

Recommended:

Fernando Gaviria 1pt each way (4 places) @14/1

Diego Ulissi 1pt each way (4 places) @14/1 – 5th

Nikias Arndt 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1 – 4th

Rémi Cavagna 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1

Edoardo Affini 0.5pts each way (4 places) @50/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

Half-chapeau. A very strong group of 23 finally got clear after 50km. There were a few attacks on the first of the four climbs, but when Cavagna attacked on the second he quickly took an advantage of almost 30secs and the race looked over. But the final was a lot tougher than the road book suggested, and Bettiol attacked from the chasers and caught Cavagna about 100m from the peak of the last climb. Roche chased but couldn’t catch the Italian who was on a special day. The peloton essentially had a day off, rolling in over 23mins after the winner. There were no incidents though sadly both Evenepoel and Ciccone were non-starters after their spills on stage 17.

Preview

Out of respect after the tragic cable car accident at Mottarone last weekend, stage 19 is rerouted around the mountain which would have been traversed halfway into the stage. Instead, the riders will take on a much less demanding fourth-category climb to Gignese.

The first-category summit finish to Alpe di Mera is tough at 9.7km averaging 9.0%, however the final 5km of the climb averages over 10%, and this is where we should see a GC dust-up.

Contenders

The penultimate climbing day of this year’s Giro, so time is running out for any riders that want to make strides up the general classification or hunt down a stage win before we reach Milan. So this stage is unlikely to be defensive, and with an ugly looking climb at the end is tilted towards the GC contenders for the win. The breakaway is not without a chance, however, and it’ll be worth having a saver in case the expected aggressive tactics from behind don’t materialize. 

So who might instigate those aggressive tactics? Egan Bernal finally showed some weakness when he was gapped by Simon Yates on stage 17. Yates trails Bernal by 3mins 23secs, which is a lot, so one would assume Team BikeExchange will want to put maximum pressure on the pink jersey wearer as soon as possible. A podium finish was not Yates’ target before the race, so I imagine he’s willing to risk losing that in order to challenge Bernal for pink.

The Australian team were unlucky to lose Nick Schultz with a broken finger in the same crash that took out Remco Evenepoel and Giulio Ciccone which is a big loss, but they still have good engines for the flat and lower slopes as well as Mikel Nieve and Tanel Kangert once it reaches the higher stuff. Yates has been literally hot and cold in this Giro – good on the warm days, less good on the wet and miserable ones. The forecast for this is decent which is in the Brit’s favour. If he arrives with the kind of legs he showed up to Sega di Ala, then he’ll be difficult to beat. Yates is the stage favourite at around 7/2.

What do we make of Bernal’s stumble? Bad legs after the rest day? Bad back playing up again? Form on the downturn? Paying for not reconnoitering the climb? Well, we don’t know, and perhaps he doesn’t either. But he was seriously struggling at times and if it hadn’t been for Dani Martínez, could’ve lost twice as much time. There’ll be no place to hide here, so we’ll find out if it was just a blip or a sign of things to come. If Bernal is at the front with good legs into those last few kilometres, then he can put this Giro to bed. Which Bernal will we see?

Deceuninck–Quick-Step have been criticized for pulling João Almeida back to help Remco Evenepoel on the Strade stage and up Monte Zoncolan. Theoretically, Almeida could be 3mins better off than his current position and pushing for a podium spot or even the win had he not been brought back. But it was unavoidable – Evenepoel was high on GC and looked stronger than Almeida in the first week, who suffered like Yates in the cold conditions. And imagine if he hadn’t gone back – it wouldn’t have been ideal for “Wolf Pack” morale, even if the Portuguese is leaving at the end of the season.

But Almeida is now flying – in fact, he’s possibly flying better than anybody. As we’ve seen many times, whoever hits top form in the final week of a Grand Tour has a massive advantage, especially if the rest are on the downturn. Who’d have thought Tao Geoghegan Hart, Jai Hindley, and Rohan Dennis would’ve been the three strongest climbers at the end of last year’s Giro? Almeida has a big chance here to take the stage win but is also a short price at around 4/1.

How Dan Martin managed to hold off the GC men on stage 17 I’ll never know – a quite incredible ride. Assuming the team celebrations didn’t go on too long that night, and he puts those same legs on in the morning, he has every chance of doubling up. Though his best chance this time I think is to stay with the top men rather than go in the break, and then attack early on the final climb. 

Quite a few riders have been inconsistent in this Giro. Hugh Carthy, Aleksandr Vlasov, and Romain Bardet have all had really good days and others that were disappointing. It feels as though all three are on the downturn, but it wouldn’t be a massive surprise to see them challenging for the win as they’re all top class riders. Bardet – who suffered from stomach issues on stage 17 – was a very impressive runner-up the day before, and is probably the most likely to surprise. At 70/1 he’s worth an each way pop. 

If a breakaway is to win the day, who might challenge? We have a good handle now on those riders that are going well and could finish something like this off. Davide Formolo and Antonio Pedrero look the most likely, and certainly the Movistar man has had no luck so far – it would be great to finally see him land his first pro win. 

Many had to double-take when seeing Diego Ulissi had somehow finished fourth on stage 17. The irregular gradients on that climb – with high ramps followed by flat sections – probably benefited his punchy style, but it’s fair to say he’s got good legs at the moment. This final climb is much more consistently tough, but Ulissi would still have a serious chance if the break was given a head start.

Finally, Harm Vanhoucke may well have won the Strade stage but for a crash about 10km out. Since then we haven’t really seen how he would fare in a breakaway in the high mountains. If Vanhoucke does win, celebrations on the Lotto–Soudal team bus might be a bit muted as he and Stefano Oldani are their only riders left in the race. 

Simon Yates 3pts win @7/2

Romain Bardet 1pt each way (3 places) @70/1

Antonio Pedrero 1pt each way (3 places) @22/1

Diego Ulissi 1pt each way (3 places) @22/1

Harm Vanhoucke 0.5pts each way (3 places) @80/1

Posted 21.19 BST Thu 27th May 2021