Stage 8 – Foggia > Guardia Sanframondi (170km)

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Stage 7 Result

1st Caleb EWAN (5/2); 2nd Davide CIMOLAI (28/1); 3rd Tim MERLIER (7/2); 4th Matteo MOSCHETTI (50/1)

Recommended:

Davide Cimolai 1pt each way @28/1 (4 places) – Placed

Andrea Vendrame 0.5pts each way @80/1 (4 places)

Mikkel Honoré 0.25pts each way @200/1 (4 places)

Rémi Cavagna 0.25pts each way @200/1 (4 places)

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

Chapeau! Ewan was very impressive again on a super tough uphill drag and now goes into the ciclamino jersey – will that change his plans to go home early? I think it’s unlikely, but we’ll have to see. Gaviria started his sprint a good 300m out which forced Ewan’s hand; there was no hiding in the slipstream here – it was pure power that got him up and then around the Colombian. Sagan appeared to brush a road barrier and then pull up with a mechanical. Hugh Carthy also suffered a mechanical in the final – a broken saddle which forced him to stop and lose over 2mins, however the commissaires wiped that deficit as it was inside the last 3km. Cimolai positioned himself really well, skipping between Viviani, Sagan and finally, Ewan’s wheel, but couldn’t quite get round the “Pocket Rocket”. 

Profit (+2.6pts)

Preview

The riders transfer a little further south where Foggia is the host city, then go west across the Apennines towards Naples, and finish up a sharp fourth-category climb. There’s a long second-category ascent with steady gradients (18.9km, 4.6%) in the middle of the stage, and then an even longer descent, before hitting that decisive finish.

If the breakaway is made up of the right ingredients, then it should be allowed to contest the final – the long downhill is not ideal terrain to chase one down – but you’ll need to be a punchy, explosive type to take away the win. However, there will still be a battle up the last 4km, which touches 11%, between GC men, though time gaps should be relatively small – another point in the favour of the break.

Contenders

We’ve already had three breakaway wins in this Giro – though two of those only barely with a combined winning time of just 16secs – and stage 8 offers another opportunity for those with aspirations to get up the road and fight for the win. 

Of course, the make-up and size of the break is crucial in determining whether they are allowed to stay away. Taco van der Hoorn – as well as having the coolest name in the peloton – took advantage of an error in judgement by the chase on stage 3. On stage 6, Gino Mäder got into the break despite being only 4mins off GC. After chasing down a strong 25-man breakaway, Israel Start-Up Nation lacked the numbers to continue marshalling the front and, with a lot of help from his teammate Mohorič, Mäder got away. 

I think stage 8 has the look of a much more traditional “breakaway stage” – a group of riders that are no threat on GC will get in the break, the peloton will relax, they’ll give them 8mins plus, and allow them to contest the win.

FDJ now hold the pink jersey with the impressive young Hungarian Attila Valter – they’ll need to do a better job than De Marchi’s team in making sure a threat doesn’t go up the road. That’ll be tricky as the first 30km are pretty much all uphill, but it’s doable. 

Looking at the stage profile, we need to look at puncheur/climbers rather than mountain goats. The big second-category climb in particular only briefly goes over 6% which isn’t going to tax many in this peloton, so it’ll all be settled on the final punch to the line.  

I initially suspected EF Education–Nippo were holding back their troops to support Carthy in the final week, but both Ruben Guerreiro and Alberto Bettiol went on the attack on stage 6. These two are made for this stage and can take it in turns to try to make the break. I can’t imagine one of them not making it in, and once in will be one of the favourites. Guerreiro won a stage in last year’s Giro and finished wearing the maglia azzurra. If he doesn’t get in on Saturday, then I’m sure he’ll try again on the more mountainous parcours on Sunday. I’ve been reluctant to get on board with Bettiol after news of his serious illness throughout the winter, but he’s looking better than ever. He had eyes on getting into pink and attacked on stage 6 to capture it, but when that was thwarted he cut the engines and lost almost 20mins. That gives him licence to stage hunt and here’s his first chance – Bettiol is my nap on the day, but his teammate Guerreiro is also included in the bet selections. Around 14/1 about both is not generous, perhaps not even value given the random nature of bike racing, but I’m super sweet on the pair of them.

There’s always one rider that I appear to back off a cliff thinking that today will finally be the day. This year it seems to be AG2R’s Andrea Vendrame. He’s so versatile; he’s a threat on all types of stages, though the plain fact is he doesn’t win much. I’m going to be brave and leave him out.

Ineos’ Gianni Moscon has the attributes to win this type of stage and is one of the leading fancies in the market. But he’s an important gregario for Bernal and will be needed on the tougher stage 9 on Sunday. I much prefer his teammate Jhonatan Narváez. The Ecuadorian was a Giro stage winner in 2020, though his form this term is a little unknown (largely due to Covid-19 restrictions limiting his time in Europe). Crucially, he did make that initial 25-man break on stage 6 which indicates that he does have a pass to go forward. He’s not as important a domestique as Moscon, and at twice the price, is a bet.

Diego Ulissi will always be one of the favourites for a sharp, punchy finish. He’s short enough at around 14s, and though he may well win, I’m not convinced he’s in the form of years past. That said, it’s great to see he’s recovered from a recent heart scare, and it would be amazing to see the Italian add to his eight Giro stage wins almost exactly 10 years since his first.

Bora have seemed very reluctant to allow anyone off the leash, mainly I think because they all have jobs babysitting Buchmann or delivering Sagan for the sprints. That’s a shame as both Felix Großschartner and Matteo Fabbro are both potential winners of this stage. I remember Fabbro coming into last year’s Giro in tremendous form from Tirreno-Adriatico, but never being allowed to go for a stage win (despite my money being on him). And for what? Patrick Konrad and Rafał Majka ended up finishing eighth and twelfth overall respectively. Also, Großschartner appeared to take a nasty fall coming into the final on stage 6. So I’ll dodge these two for now, hopefully I won’t regret it. In fact the most likely Bora breakaway candidate is Sagan himself so he can mop up the intermediate sprint points and probably collect some on the line too, but he won’t win.

Thomas De Gendt, Harm Vanhoucke, and Kobe Goossens have all mucked in to add horsepower to Caleb Ewan’s sprint train, or at least to take turns on the nose of the peloton and peg the break. They’re all better climbers than puncheurs and may be held back until the Aussie has gone home – they’ll be needed again on Monday for the sprint. But you can’t rule out that they’ll have a pop here. Maybe their work has “earned” them a place in the break – it’s all a question of probabilities and judgement, and for this stage I’m giving them the swerve.

There’s a huge 40km descent before the final climb, which of course screams one name – Matej Mohorič. The Slovenian could put a minute into his rivals on a downhill like that, even without the banned “supertuck”. He put in a “Man of the Match” performance on stage 6, first to stop Bauke Mollema joining the break (much to my annoyance as he was the tip of the day), and then to give Mäder the 2mins he needed at the bottom of the climb to take home the win. Mohorič would probably need to arrive solo on the final climb, but that’s very possible if he makes the break. 

Mohorič’s countryman and teammate Jan Tratnik may also be given the option to go ahead, so too stage 6 winner Gino Mäder, though I’m always reluctant to back a rider coming off a career high win – the emotions involved in that are so understandably draining that they rarely follow up.

Trek have been eager to send guys up the road and in Gianluca Brambilla they have a rider with the perfect attributes for this stage. But it’s been four or five years since Brambilla showed his best form in Deceuninck blue, taking a stage win and holding the overall lead in the Giro, so I’m staying away.

If you replayed stage 6 a number of times, then Brambilla’s teammate Bauke Mollema would’ve won it more times than not. The first break being brought back, missing the second one by about 50m, Mohorič driving the front group and keeping him in no-man’s land and being forced to waste energy chasing for 40km, Mäder being so close on GC etc. and he still almost made a place. How much did that effort take out of him? Who knows? And he may need another day to recover. Sunday looks better for Mollema, but I’m reluctant to leave out the classy Dutchman desperate for a stage win.

Astana are interesting. On stage 6, it was unclear whether they were marshalling the break or trying to get into it. Both Luis León Sánchez and Fabio Felline could compete in a stage like this. Felline was briefly in the break on stage 6, and Sánchez has bigger domestique duties for Vlasov, but of the two, only the Spanish champion Sánchez is likely to win the stage. If he’s got a pass to go forward, then he’s a massive threat.

Nothing is guaranteed, and if it does all come back together then Dan Martin at 50/1 is a good cover for a GC bet. But I think it’s one of those days to go all in, play a little breakaway bingo, and hope the cards (or bingo balls) fall right.

Alberto Bettiol 2pts each way @ 11/1 (4 places)

Ruben Guerreiro 1pt each way @16/1 (4 places)

Luis León Sánchez 1pt each way @25/1 (4 places)

Bauke Mollema 1pt each way @25/1 (4 places)

Jhonatan Narváez 0.5pts each way @50/1 (4 places)

Posted 21.51 Fri 14th May 2021