Stage 10 – Lanciano > Tortoreto (177km)

Profile

Preview

A very tricky profile with some serious spikes in the final 50km. The final four short climbs touch 18%, 24%, 20% and 18% again as the first one is repeated. They are short at around 2km, but that’s long enough for some explosive riders to do some big damage. 

It’s difficult to see how sprinters teams or ‘classics sprinters’ like Sagan will be able to hold this together. The final sharp rise comes with less than 10km from the end, so if someone managed to get 30s there it would be difficult to bring it back, especially as many riders who may otherwise be put to work to bring it back will have been dropped. 

As we’ve seen, Bora have refused to be forced into doing all the work themselves – with FDJ and Sunweb ceding responsibility at times. I doubt FDJ will have any interest in controlling this for Démare as even he will struggle to pull this one off – plus, there’s a flat stage on Wednesday which they'll be saving themselves for. For this reason, if there is indecision behind then the breakaway will have a chance.

Contenders

If we’re looking for explosive riders then there are few better than Diego Ulissi, who has already proved that he has the powers to distance the group. He’s the 10/1 favourite and assuming the breakaway has been brought back he’s sure to try something in the final.

Michael Matthews and Peter Sagan are next in the betting, but I think this’ll be too tough for them – someone will get a gap that they won’t be able to bring back. 

Ineos pair of Jhonathan Narváez and Ben Swift are available to around 20s. So far, it’s Swift who has shown a bit more form and experience to position himself well and give himself a chance of the win. Similar to Matthews in that he’s a good climber but will he be able to stick to all of the attacks? You could easily see Swift or Matthews competing from a reduced group but will it be for the win? 

Two others that fit the profile for this stage are Fabio Felline and Enrico Battaglin; it wouldn’t be a surprise to see either of them challenging – both appear in good form and are available at around 40s. 

Potential breakaway winners could be Jack Haig, Thomas De Gendt, Ruben Guerreiro, Giovanni Visconti and Valerio Conti. Of these I prefer Guerreiro again with a profile that probably suits his explosive skills better than stage 9 which he won. He may also want to get up the road to consolidate his lead in the maglia azzurra. 

I also think it’s worth keeping on the right side of Mikkel Bjerg who looks like another superstar youngster, though he might keep his powder dry for more mountainous stages and his speciality, the ITTs. 

It’s also not impossible that the GC men have a bit of a dig at the end. An explosive rider could possibly steal 30s on the final climb. Jakob Fuglsang and Wilco Kelderman have so far looked the best, especially on these sharp rises. 

Also, look out for Lucas Hamilton who may want to use the opportunity to rise another few places up the standings as he did yesterday. One rider who’s going very well and even though he’s here to protect Kelderman may also fancy stealing some time on the GC is Jai Hindley. Both Australians also have a decent sprint on them - handy if they come to the line in a reduced group. All in all a very tricky affair – time for small stakes and a play in the breakaway, an explosive attack or GC steal.

Diego Ulissi 1pt ew (1/4 1 2 3) @12/1

Ruben Guerreiro 0.5pt ew (1/4 1 2 3) @28/1

Lucas Hamilton 0.5pts ew (1/4 1 2 3) @40/1

Jai Hindley 0.5pts ew (1/4 1 2 3) @80/1

(Lucas Hamiton and the whole of the Mitchelton-Scott team have withdrawn from the Giro this evening after four positive Covid-19 tests among their staff. Steven Kruijswijk also tested positive and has withdrawn.)

I’m going to add a couple of Jumbo-Visma riders to the selections as they may now want to get up the road. 

Tobias Foss 0.25pts ew (1/4 1 2 3) @200/1

Chris Harper 0.25pts ew (1/4 1 2 3) @300/1

Stage 10 Result

1st Peter Sagan; 2nd Brandon McNulty; 3rd João Almeida

Recommended:

Diego Ulissi 1pt ew (1/4 1 2 3) @12/1 – lost (-2pts)

Ruben Guerreiro 0.5pt ew (1/4 1 2 3) @28/1 – lost (-1pt)

Lucas Hamilton 0.5pts ew (1/4 1 2 3) @40/1 – void

Jai Hindley 0.5pts ew (1/4 1 2 3) @80/1 – lost (-1pt)

Tobias Foss 0.25pts ew (1/4 1 2 3) @200/1 – void

Chris Harper 0.25pts ew (1/4 1 2 3) @300/1 – void

(Jumbo-Visma withdrew prior to the stage)

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

No chapeau. But chapeau to Peter Sagan – what a ride! Absolutely brutal full gas day where the break looked in peril all day long. In the end, they couldn’t catch the final man left – Sagan. Bilbao looked good with an attack from behind, Almeida defended pink pretty well and Pozzovivo was punchy, recovering well from a broken spoke. Not so for Fuglsang who lost over a minute after an ill-timed puncture. Hindley finished 5th and is now a top 5 contender. Bjerg, Fabbro and Kangert look the pick of non-GC contenders for future breakaways.

Total Stakes: 58.0pts; Profit/Loss: +2.4pts (+4.1%)