Stage 9 – San Salvo > Roccaraso (207km)

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Preview

A big climbing day which will shake up the GC race for sure. After some tough days, the peloton took a bit of a break yesterday, but with the rest day on Monday should leave it all out on the field today. 

Which teams will take responsibility and drive the pace? It’s a tricky one. Unlike the Tour when Jumbo Visma’s climbing talent could always be relied upon to keep a high pace, the strongest teams here – Ineos and Mitchelton-Scott – no longer have GC interest. 

How much trust do DCQS have in Almeida to be able to stay with the best when the going gets tough? He showed on Etna that he’s possibly a little vulnerable, and other teams will be looking to shake him out. The best climbers there appeared to be Nibali and Fuglsang, but Astana have lost their two big climbing domestiques, so they don’t have the firepower to drive it. 

So, I think it’ll be Trek who will take responsibility and put pressure on the others in the second half of the stage. Due to the uncertainty, it’s also possible that the breakaway stays away. The start is relatively flat for the first 60km which will make it difficult for pure climbers to make it in.

Contenders

Prices are out and the consensus appears to be that the breakaway will have their fun. I’m reluctant to go all in on a breakaway win the day before a rest day as GC teams tend to go a little harder, and it’s also a summit finish which tends to push the balance closer towards the overall contenders. 

Thomas De Gendt has shown to have good legs and should be strong enough to make the break on the flattish start. He’s short at 8/1 and frequently lets you down but the start suits him and if he makes the break that 8s will look big. 

Now that Simon Yates is no longer in the race, Mitchelton-Scott will be going all in for a stage victory; Jack Haig is available at around 9s. He failed to make the break the other day and that’s going to be his biggest problem – but if he makes it will surely be the best climber in it. Australian champion Cameron Meyer will also probably be looking to get up the road and he may offer more value. So too Damien Howson though he did injure his hand badly two days ago. 

Similarly, Ineos will definitely want someone in the break – Filipp Ganna will probably want to protect his maglia azzurra but surely a stage win would be too hard for the big man. Jonathan Castroviejo is also a possibility, but again I think the value is with Rohan Dennis at around 125s. 

EF will also want to be in the break - they’ve got Jonathan Caicedo, Ruben Guerreiro and Tanel Kangert who are all potential stage winners. If it comes down to a GC fight then I think Jakob Fuglsang is the man to beat.

Thomas De Gendt 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @8/1

Jack Haig 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @9/1

Damien Howson 0.5pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @100/1

Rohan Dennis 0.5pts ew (1/4 1 2 3) @100/1

Ruben Guerreiro 1pt ew (1/4 1 2 3) @33/1

Jakob Fuglsang 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @22/1

Stage 9 Result

1st Ruben Guerreiro; 2nd Jonathan Castroviejo; 3rd Mikkel Bjerg; 4th Kilian Frankiny

Recommended:

Thomas De Gendt 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @8/1 – lost (-2pts)

Jack Haig 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @9/1 – lost (-2pt)

Damien Howson 0.5pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @100/1 – lost (-1pt)

Rohan Dennis 0.5pts ew (1/4 1 2 3) @100/1 – lost (-1pt)

Ruben Guerreiro 1pt ew (1/4 1 2 3) @33/1 – won (+41.25)

Jakob Fuglsang 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @22/1 – lost (-2pts)

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

Chapeau! EF loyalty paid off and Guerreiro pulled off a great win. There’s always luck involved in getting in the break, and this one took over an hour to form. Similar to Caicedo on stage 3, Guerreiro looked the most tired of the group for most of the stage, until he attacked Castroviejo in the final 500m. Chapeau also to young Danish rider Bjerg who looks a future stage winner in waiting. The GC battle didn’t really kick off with the climbs not quite tough enough or ridden hard enough to whittle the front group down. The stinking weather and strong wind also contributed to the lack of attacks. When they did come in the final kilometre, it was Fuglsang and Kelderman that were the strongest.

Total Stakes: 54.0pts; Profit/Loss: +6.4pts (+11.8%)