Stage 11 – Porto Sant’Elpidio > Rimini (182km)

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Preview

After yesterday’s frantic stage that was pretty much full gas from the gun, today should be a more straightforward affair. It’s pretty much flat all along the route with just a fourth-category climb in the middle and a few small rises later, but the last of them peaks out with more than 20km from the end so there should be no danger of a late attack stealing a stage win from the sprint teams. 

The route hugs the coastline for almost the entire route, so we’ll have to check that strong winds are not forecast. Possibly one of the biggest dangers is that a strong breakaway is formed, FDJ are left to do all of the work themselves and fail to do bring it back. They should be wise to this by making sure only a small group goes clear and peg it early. We’ve seen how the sprint teams have not worked in harmony as some stages have favoured either Démare or Sagan, and each team has left the other to do all the work themselves.

Everyone also knows that Démare is the fastest on the startline which doesn’t incentivise help. FDJ were put to some serious work yesterday to try to bring back Sagan before the first intermediate sprint – they failed, as did everyone else, and Sagan, incredibly, won the day. So there are a few complications, but I expect FDJ along with UAE for Gaviria (who had a spill yesterday), Cofidis for Viviani and even maybe DCQS for Hodeg and Ballerini to set up the sprint. 

There are a few twists and turns in the final 5km as well as two 90 degree left-handers after the flamme rouge which will favour an organized leadout. Any sprinter who has saved some men will be at an advantage here. That might not necessarily be Démare – he’ll likely have to use his men all day, plus they lost Sinkledom for the leadout who abandoned yesterday.

Contenders

Arnaud Démare is the obvious favourite at around even money which is almost backable – I expected him to be odds on. The variables as noted above are a lack of sprint teams to work together, a potentially tired and depleted FDJ, and the tricky, technical final. 

Fernando Gaviria is probably the next fastest guy on paper but hasn’t shown much so far this Giro. He’s worked for Ulissi on some stages and in fact came down yesterday not helping his chances. He looked ok afterwards but had some road rash on his hip and went back to the medical car for painkillers – he might win but he’s unbackable. 

Peter Sagan is next in the betting at around 11/2. He’s clearly in stellar form now but surely yesterday’s stage will have taken a huge amount out of him. He is though now very much in contention for the maglia ciclamino, so he’ll need to compete at the finish. 

Álvaro Hodeg is there at around 7s. It’s arguable whether he or Davide Ballerini is fastest at the moment. Ballerini is in good form, but he’s doing a lot of work to protect the maglia rosa on Almeida’s shoulders. 

You can have Elia Viviani at 11s – I can’t as he’s shown nothing near his top level. After that you have the likes of Davide Cimolai, Juan Molano, Ben Swift and Andrea Vendrama – all of whom need a much tougher profile than today’s to compete in a pure speed finish. 

It’s almost another no bet day – Démare will most likely win, but there are maybe a few too many variables to go big on him at even money. Hodeg finished 5th on stage 7 with a slightly mixed up leadout; if Ballerini can position him well for the final two turns, then Hodeg could have the speed to finish it off. 

Álvaro Hodeg 0.5pts ew (1/4 1 2 3) @15/2

Stage 11 Result

1st Arnaud Démare; 2nd Peter Sagan; 3rd Álvaro Hodeg

Recommended:

Álvaro Hodeg 0.5pts ew (1/4 1 2 3) @15/2 – placed (+0.4pts)

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

Half-chapeau. It played out pretty much as expected. There was a moment with about 15km to go where it looked like FDJ – with only UAE’s Conti to help – might not bring back Lotto Soudal’s Sander Armée, who had attacked from the breakaway. The technical nature of the final actually helped FDJ as all of the GC teams were nervous enough to make sure they hit the town circuit at the front. This meant Armee’s lead tumbled and he was caught 6km out. UAE took over a couple of kilometres out with Mikkel Bjerg leading the way, but they were swamped by a perfectly timed run from Démare’s leadout of Scotson and Guarnieri to put the ciclamino wearer in prime position for the final two left-handers inside the final kilometre. Sagan carried good speed but had to weave a lot to find a gap – a straight run and he may have bettered his second place. Gaviria faded disappointingly, and Consonni was left to sprint for Cofidis as Viviani struggled – probably not helped by being hit from behind by a moto earlier in the day. Hodeg was put in good position by Ballerini and also carried good speed, but nobody it seems can match Démare at the moment.

Total Stakes: 59.0pts; Profit/Loss: +2.8pts (+4.7%)