Stage 12 – Cesenatico > Cesenatico (204km)

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Preview

The riders head inland from Cesenatico, go on a big loop taking on five categorized climbs – and plenty others uncategorized – then end up back on the coast where they started. This looks like a breakaway day, but it’s up and down all day with plenty of tough climbs so a winner will have to be accomplished on the steep stuff. 

In fact the categorizations seem to be particularly stingy. The first fourth-category is 6km at 6.4% with ramps of 12%, followed by a third-category of 4.5km at 8.4%, max 17% and so on all day long. Every climb has maximum gradients in the double digits. 

The first 26km are flat which will favour stronger riders for the breakaway, but this one might take a while to form. There’s an uncategorized climb that peaks out 36km into the stage – it’s on this that a selection will be made I think. It’s not impossible that the race blows apart if a GC contender happens to get into trouble and other teams decide to push the pace, or indeed someone decides to attack. 

Who knows if this Giro will make it to Milan? There is only one mountain stage before the next rest day, so it may be in the minds of some GC men to grab every opportunity to make up time in case of a premature end to the race. There are plenty of high-gradient launchpads where a gap could be made, but the most likely is a strong breakaway goes clear and does not come back.

Contenders

First, the breakaway favourites – Ruben Guerreiro has stated that his main goal for the remainder of this Giro is to defend the maglia azzurra currently on his shoulders. There are plenty of mountain points up for grabs today so it would be strange not to see him in the break, and if he’s in the break then he can win the stage. Guerreiro has to be a pick and at around 20s is decent value. 

EF may well look at getting more than one rider in the break, and veteran Estonian Tanel Kangert looks to be hitting top form at just the right time. He managed to stay with the front GC group on the brutal stage into Tortoreto and at around 40/1 is another of my picks. 

On that same stage where attacks were coming left, right and centre to try to make the break, it was interesting to see Bora’s Matteo Fabbro given licence to go up the road as he was in Tirreno-Adriatico. He looks to be the pick of non-GC climbers and hopefully he’ll be given his chance today. 

Another rider who looks like a stage winner waiting to happen is UAE’s Mikkel Bjerg. There’s a possibility he’s saving himself for Saturday’s TT and perhaps there are a few too many climbs for his liking, but he looks so strong at the moment it might not matter – at 33/1 he’s in. 

Thomas De Gendt is 11/1 and of course could well win, but I’ve lost enough backing De Gendt recently to keep going back to the well. Lotto Soudal seem to be a bit of a mess at this Giro. Vanhoucke appears to have very little team support and always seems to be on his own when he needs his team most – notably the crosswinds on stage 7 when he could have lost minutes and de Gendt was up the road in a pointless break. 

There ought to be some attacks behind from GC contenders and if they happen early could blow the race apart and ruin the day for the breakaway. An obvious candidate for an attack on the higher gradients is Jakob Fuglsang who now finds himself 2min20sec behind João Almeida after his puncture, despite potentially looking like the strongest climber in the race.

Another rider who looks in the form of his life is Domenico Pozzovivo – he also suffered an untimely puncture two days ago but was able to fight back on and then even go on the attack. He’s flying and NTT might back him again today and put the heat on the rest. 

Pello Bilbao is also looking very lively but like Pozzovivo might be very closely marked. 

A young DCQS have done a very good job so far protecting Almeida, but I feel he’s still a little vulnerable. If he’s dropped and a reduced GC group goes to the line then Jai Hindley will have a great chance of the stage win.

Ruben Guerreiro 2pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4 5) @22/1 

Tanel Kangert 1pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4 5) @40/1 

Matteo Fabbro 2pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4 5) @25/1 

Mikkel Bjerg 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4 5) @33/1 

Jakob Fuglsang 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4 5) @25/1 

Jai Hindley 0.5pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4 5) @66/1

Stage 12 Result

1st Jhonatan Narváez; 2nd Mark Padun; 3rd Simon Clarke; 4th Joey Rosskoff; 5th Simon Pellaud

Recommended:

Ruben Guerreiro 2pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4 5) @22/1 – lost (-4pts)

Tanel Kangert 1pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4 5) @40/1 – lost (-2pts)

Matteo Fabbro 2pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4 5) @25/1 – lost (-4pts)

Mikkel Bjerg 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4 5) @33/1  – lost (-2pts)

Jakob Fuglsang 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4 5) @25/1 – lost (-2pts)

Jai Hindley 0.5pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4 5) @66/1 – lost (-1pt)

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

No chapeau. That was frustrating on many levels. The break that got clear was strong in numbers but not really on quality and any of my guys would have had a big chance of the win. The standout in the break was Narváez who was eminently backable. But it looked for all the world that the stage would be won by the GC group after NTT brought the gap down from 13 minutes down to four with 50km to go. They seemed to mistime using Campenaerts, who’d been in the break. He should have been used on the flat but was used on the penultimate climb and suddenly the gap went up by a minute, and the equation was back in the breakaway’s favour. Still, having worked all day, Pozzovivo didn’t attack until the final km of the last climb – what a waste. It looked like he was going to go for a long one and isolate all the GC men in which case my GC stage picks would’ve had a big chance. Even more frustratingly, Guerreiro looked very strong, staying with the GC group and even sprinting for the line – he should’ve been in the break for the KOM points, disappointing.

Total Stakes: 74.0pts; Profit/Loss: -12.2pts (-16.5%)