Stage 13 – Cervia > Monselice (192km)

Profile

Preview

An interesting profile – completely flat for 150km then two very sharp spikes, the last of which peaks out with 16km to go. To say these are prime attack points is an understatement. 

The first climb is actually three climbs in one totalling 4.1km at an average of 8.3% but with sections above 20%. They will be hitting the narrow slopes at a furious pace and a selection will be made. This, combined with the pan flat start and the forecasted headwind suggest that any breakaway is done for, but you never know. 

How big will the group be after this first assault? That’s the big question. They then descend and go straight up another brute of 2.1km at an average of 9.8%. Anyone with legs will attack again in the hope of gapping the group and taking it to the line. Teams like Bora and FDJ might try to control the front but it’s going to be tricky at such gradients.

Contenders

Bookies prices suggest they think it’s one for the classics sprinter types – Peter Sagan is the strong favourite at around 11/4 with Ben Swift and Davide Ballerini at between 10/1 and 14/1. The profile for me looks more difficult than that but of course it all depends on riders’ motivations. 

If the GC teams want to blow this apart then they could do - you could easily see someone like Domenico Pozzovivo or Pello Bilbao attacking early to put everyone under pressure. Short, sharp explosivity is the key – someone who can put in a high-wattage effort that nobody can live with. This looks too hard for Sagan but who can right him off? 

Diego Ulissi is in at around 10s but he too seems to have been off colour since his stage win – unable to make any of the crucial breaks. Swift has been good but might not be able to match the explosiveness of some and Ballerini is always put to work to protect João Almeida. If it does turn very selective and only the best climbers are left near the end then Almeida will be a decent bet to win the sprint. It’s in the balance so small stakes tomorrow but I think the profile leans towards the puncheurs and GC men than your Sagans and Swifts. 

One man who was able to match Ulissi on stage 2 was Mikkel Honoré. He’s been riding well in support of Almeida this Giro and he may be charged with chasing down attacks today. That might work in his favour for a stage win should a small group get away. Jai Hindley again is fast on the line and I’m also going to stick with Matteo Fabbro in the hope of an attack on one of the climbs.

João Almeida 0.5pts ew (1/4 1 2 3) @40/1

Mikkel Honoré 0.5pts ew (1/4 1 2 3) @33/1

Jai Hindley 0.25pts ew (1/4 1 2 3) @80/1

Matteo Fabbro 0.25pts (1/4 1 2 3) @80/1

Stage 13 Result

1st Diego Ulissi; 2nd João Almeida; 3rd Patrick Konrad

Recommended:

João Almeida 0.5pts ew (1/4 1 2 3) @40/1 – placed (+4.5pts)

Mikkel Honoré 0.5pts ew (1/4 1 2 3) @33/1 – lost (-1pt)

Jai Hindley 0.25pts ew (1/4 1 2 3) @80/1 – lost (-0.5pts)

Matteo Fabbro 0.25pts (1/4 1 2 3) @80/1 – lost (-0.5pts)

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

Half-chapeau. That played out pretty much as called with a group of around 20 riders including GC men getting a gap on the field over the final climb. Once dropped, Sagan got within 20 seconds of getting back on, but Masnada and Knox worked well together for DCQS to set up Almeida for the sprint and bonus seconds. Unfortunately for me, he couldn’t finish it off with a win. Honoré led him out and finished 5th, Hindley didn’t sprint and came home 10th. For a second I thought Fabbro had sprinted home for 3rd; he didn’t, it was his teammate Konrad. Could’ve been better but could’ve been worse.

Total Stakes: 77.0pts; Profit/Loss: -9.7pts (-12.6%)