Stage 14 – Conegliano > Valdobbiadene ITT (34.1km)
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Preview
A 34km individual time trial over rolling terrain which includes a short fourth-category climb near the start of just over a kilometre averaging 12.3%. That’s a tough gradient, but it’s a relatively short effort and doesn’t push the stage into the favour of climbers and away from TT specialists. Especially as the most in form TT specialist, Fillipo Ganna, has already demonstrated that he’s not too shabby on the climbs either.
Contenders
Fillipo Ganna really does look head and shoulders above the rest, and assuming he isn’t too fatigued or picked up an illness in the cold, wet conditions two days ago will be difficult to beat.
Another man targeting this stage will be the impressive young Danish rider Mikkel Bjerg. He came 3rd on the opening day TT and dealt well with those windy conditions and strange downhill parcours. He’s sure to go well again today and is worth a small stakes each way pop at around 12s.
Second that day of course was pink jersey wearer João Almeida, and he’ll be motivated to put some time into his rivals before the big mountain stages to come. DCQS have done really well protecting Almeida so far, but I fear he’s going to need a buffer once we get into the high stuff.
Somewhat disappointing on stage 1 was Ganna’s teammate Rohan Dennis, but he seems to be riding into a bit of form and this longer TT should suit him – we should see him challenging near the top of the times.
Israel Start-Up pair, Alex Dowsett and Matthias Brandle, delivered a stage win of course with their 1-2 attack on stage 8. Buoyed by that they could challenge for the places.
A faller on stage 1 was TT specialist Victor Campenaerts – he’s been a willing domestique for NTT and has been seen on the front a number of times for Pozzovivo. We’ll see how well he’s going today in his speciality.
Who else could make the frame? Jonathan Castroviejo, Thomas de Gendt, Josef Cerny? For many it will be a case of saving as much energy as possible for the week to come. That’s not true of course of the GC contenders – so who from those could surprise? Wilco Kelderman, Jakob Fuglsang and Pello Bilbao are no slouches on a TT bike – top 10s for those are very possible and some time gained on others. So too Brandon McNulty who has impressed so far this Giro and at around 20/1 offers a little bit of value. I’m also adding EF’s Tanel Kangert who is capable of a good TT on his day and looks to be riding into form, but there’s really no looking past Ganna for the win.
Mikkel Bjerg 0.5pts ew (1/5 1 2 3) @12/1
Brandon McNulty 0.5pts ew (1/5 1 2 3) @20/1
Tanel Kangert 0.25pts ew (1/5 1 2 3) @200/1
Stage 14 Result
1st Filippo Ganna; 2nd Rohan Dennis; 3rd Brandon McNulty
Recommended:
Mikkel Bjerg 0.5pts ew (1/5 1 2 3) @12/1 – lost (-1pt)
Brandon McNulty 0.5pts ew (1/5 1 2 3) @20/1 – placed (+1.5pts)
Tanel Kangert 0.25pts ew (1/5 1 2 3) @200/1 – lost (-0.5pts)
Chapeau or no (chapeau)?
Half-chapeau. Ganna imperious, Dennis impressive too – he might want to get up the road in the last week to challenge for stage wins. It was tight for 3rd with McNulty grabbing it ahead of De Gendt, Cerny, Almeida and the 200/1 Kangert, who’ll also be eyeing a stage win in the mountains. GC winners on the day were Almeida, McNulty and Kelderman; the rest all lost around 1:30 to Almeida – time they’ll have to make up in the mountains, starting tomorrow.
Total Stakes: 79.5pts; Profit/Loss: -9.7pts (-12.2%)