Stage 15 – Base Aerea Rivolto > Piancavallo (185km)

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Preview

A big day in the mountains that should answer some questions about who is likely to win this Giro. In fact, with a new round of Covid testing on the second rest day tomorrow, it’s not impossible that this is the final day of the race. 

There are three second-category climbs to negotiate before the final first-category summit finish at Piancavallo. Ordinarily with a summit finish the stage win would be contested by the GC guys, but that’s not as certain here; it will depend if a team really wants to push the pace and put DCQS and Almeida under pressure early. And that will depend on how confident the leader is that he can deliver. 

NTT have twice taken responsibility at the front to drive the pace – Pozzovivo is clearly in the form of his life and they may well take it up again. Nibali’s Trek have been keeping their powder dry and we would have expected them to push the pace today, however they’ve lost Ciccone to bronchitis which might alter their plans. It will happen at some point but how early will determine the fate of the breakaway for stage glory. 

The final climb is long at 14.5km at an average of 7.8%. The first half is the toughest with a section around 14% about 5km in, which is where we can expect attacks, but it eases off significantly for the last 4km so any time gaps will have to be secured before then. 

We have the classic problem of a mountain stage with a flat start making it difficult for the lighter climbers to make it into the breakaway – it’s 40km before any sort of rise in terrain and it may well go this far till a selection is made. The breakaway has a chance so it should be a dogfight to get into it, but they’ll need several minutes going into the last climb to stay away. 

Unusually, four of the GC contenders have teammates very high in the classification - Almeida (1st), Masnada (8th), Knox (14th); Kelderman (2nd), Hindley (10th); Bilbao (3rd), Pernsteiner (15th); Majka (6th), Konrad (9th). This offers the chance for teams to attack with one member on the final climb and force others to chase them down. Teams may also want to fire a rider up the road in the breakaway in order to bridge later. There is less than four minutes covering the top 10 so there’s room for a big shake up – today will make or break some rider’s Giro prospects.

Contenders

Firstly, the breakaway candidates – essentially you need to be an excellent climber, have time on the GC, licence to go up the road, and the strength to get clear on the flat start. One guy that immediately jumps out is Movistar’s Sergio Samitier. He was only 8 minutes behind on GC until yesterday’s TT where he lost the same amount again, clearly taking it easy and buying a bit of time to get into a breakaway. 

It’s also a big day for the maglia azzurra, so we can expect Ruben Guerreiro to get up the road. Whether he can win the stage will depend on the makeup of the group and how early the attacks start flying behind. He may well have EF company too – Tanel Kangert looks to be getting better and better and the final climb suits his characteristics. 

One man who was up there in the front group two days ago and likes a big mountain is Cofidis’ Nicolas Edet – at a big price he might be worth a pop. Rohan Dennis and Thomas De Gendt are possibles but had hard TTs yesterday so might be looking towards the rest day and then an assault in the final week.  

Two riders who will have leader duties but might want to get in the break and form a bridge for attacks are Valerio Conti and the improving Ben O’Connor. That tactic might accidentally produce a stage win. Lotto Soudal’s Harm Vanhoucke has lost enough time on GC now to be given licence but the team seem to be in a bit of a mess. Finally, Ilnur Zakarin would have a big chance if in the break mainly because the decisive part of the race will not be downhill. 

If it comes down to a GC fight then it gets complicated. It’s unclear who the best climbers are. Jakob Fuglsang and Vincenzo Nibali looked the strongest on Etna but since then Fuglsang has struggled and lost time, though partly due to bad luck. Was his poor TT a sign of waning form? He’s over 4 minutes down on Almeida so has to try something today. Nibali similarly hasn’t shown much since and he lost a key domestique in Ciccone before yesterday’s TT. As suggested earlier, teams with more than one rider within 5 minutes or so can attack with one rider and force DCQS to chase them down. 

This is a big test for Masnada and Knox – so far they’ve met the challenge but this will be something different. Domenico Pozzovivo has looked strong with a team willing to work for him at the front. Both Wilco Kelderman and Pello Bilbao have attacked the leaders at different times and got gaps. João Almeida can ride somewhat defensively today as if he lost 30 seconds or so to rivals it wouldn’t be the end of the world, especially with another TT on the last day in Milan where he can probably take back the same amount to everyone except Kelderman. 

Rafał Majka put in a surprisingly good TT and this is a huge chance for him to win a Grand Tour – this finish suits him. With Ciccone out I think NTT will be the only team willing to peg and chase the break but it could be strong enough to stay away – we won’t know till they hit the road!

Sergio Samitier 1.5pts ew (1/4 1 2 3) @25/1

Ruben Guerreiro 1.5pts ew (1/4  1 2 3) @16/1

Tanel Kangert 1.5pts ew (1/4 1 2 3) @33/1

Nicolas Edet 1.5pts ew (1/4 1 2 3)  @33/1

Rafał Majka 1pt ew (1/4 1 2 3) @14/1

Stage 15 Result

1st Tao Geoghegan Hart; 2nd Wilco Kelderman; 3rd Jai Hindley

Recommended:

Sergio Samitier 1.5pts ew (1/4 1 2 3) @25/1 – lost (-3pts)

Ruben Guerreiro 1.5pts ew (1/4  1 2 3) @16/1 – lost (-3pts)

Tanel Kangert 1.5pts ew (1/4 1 2 3) @33/1 – lost (-3pts)

Nicolas Edet 1.5pts ew (1/4 1 2 3)  @33/1 – lost (-3pts)

Rafał Majka 1pt ew (1/4 1 2 3) @14/1 – lost (-2pts)

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

No chapeau. Samitier made the break in the end after bridging over on the first second-category. Guerreiro also tried but gave up – which in the end was justified but at the time looked like a terrible decision. Kangert stayed with the GC group and finished well in the top 20 – he surely will be in contention on one of the remaining mountain stages. But it was Sunweb who pushed the pace and did for the break, and their confidence was repaid when Hindley and Kelderman, along with Ineos’ Geoghegan Hart were the three strongest riders, gapping the rest including Almeida. Kelderman looks the strong favourite for the overall win now, but Geoghegan Hart is now a big danger after his stellar showing today.

Total Stakes: 93.5pts; Profit/Loss: -23.7pts (-25.3%)