Stage 16 – Udine > San Daniele del Friuli (229km)

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Preview

The peloton tackle numerous short, sharp rises over nearly 230km giving this stage more of a classics look than a final week stage race. The final climb over the third-category Monte de Ragogna (which they hit three times) tops out with only 13km to go, but we could see the win decided within the last kilometre where there are gradients of over 20%. 

They start climbing after just 15km with the longest climb of the day – a 10.8km second-category averaging 7.1km – on which we should see a breakaway of strong climbers get clear. It’s such a complicated final that I’m not sure how many teams will be keen to chase down the breakaway – as ever it’ll depend on who’s in it, and we might see riders like Ulissi and Sagan trying to make the break rather than put the responsibility on to their teams. 

Sagan will definitely be interested in mopping up the intermediate sprint points 87km into the race as this is a great opportunity for him to claw back some points on Démare. This doesn’t on paper look like a GC day, but we may see some explosive late attacks to try to steal some time.

Contenders

Diego Ulissi has been installed as favourite at around 13/2. It’s short enough considering this stage might be in the balance between break and peloton. 

Peter Sagan will surely be looking to get into the break for the sprint points so that might force Ulissi’s hand to do the same. The final looks a bit tough for Sagan but after his exploits the other day who knows. 

Ruben Guerreiro messed up on Sunday by not tracking Giovanni Visconti and as a consequence has lost his mountains jersey. This profile suits his characteristics but he may want to save his legs for the rest of the week where more KOM points are up for grabs – it depends on his motivations. For me, he should get into this break and go for the stage as the higher ground might be too tough for him. 

Matteo Fabbro has very much been kept on a leash by Bora, he’ll be racing on his home roads today so might be given licence to go for the stage win. He can be a foil for Sagan whilst Rafał Majka and Patrick Konrad can look after themselves in the group. Should the break be chased down, then Konrad has shown to be one of the fastest in the sprint alongside João Almeida and Jai HIndley. 

Tao Geoghegan Hart looks on fire and may try a late attack, but it might not be for the stage win. Ineos may try to get Ben Swift up the road and he’d have a big chance to add to their tally of wins. 

Other names at the top of the betting list include Tanel Kangert, Ben O’Connor and Ilnur Zakarin, but I think all of those should wait for the mountains and certainly the first two look like potential stage winners. Mikkel Bjerg seemed to struggle a little on the TT and may be feeling the pace a bit on his first Grand Tour after being so lively in the first week, but is also worth an interest at a big price.

Ruben Guerreiro 1pt ew (1/4 1 2 3) @12/1

Matteo Fabbro 1pt ew (1/4 1 2 3) @16/1

Ben Swift 0.5pts ew (1/4 1 2 3) @25/1

Mikkel Bjerg 0.25pts ew (1/4 1 2 3) @100/1

Stage 16 Result

1st Tao Geoghegan Hart; 2nd Wilco Kelderman; 3rd Jai Hindley

Recommended:

Ruben Guerreiro 1pt ew (1/4 1 2 3) @12/1 – lost (-2pts)

Matteo Fabbro 1pt ew (1/4 1 2 3) @16/1 – lost (-2pts)

Ben Swift 0.5pts ew (1/4 1 2 3) @25/1 – lost (-1pt)

Mikkel Bjerg 0.25pts ew (1/4 1 2 3) @100/1 – (-0.5pts)

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

No chapeau. A big, strong group went clear and the peloton left them to it. Tratnik and Boaro made a decisive move about 40km out, and only O’Connor managed to bridge in the end. Guerreiro used up his matches getting KOM points. Fabbro looked to still have legs at the end, flying up the climb to the finish – had he gone with O’Connor could’ve easily won the stage. Swift did a lot of work to try to bridge and lost the sprint for 3rd, obviously. Bjerg finished last and it wasn’t deliberate, he was struggling, possibly sick so can be ruled out for the last week I think.

Total Stakes: 99.0pts; Profit/Loss: -29.2pts (-29.5%)