Stage 17 – Bassano del Grappa > Madonna di Campiglio (203km)

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Preview

A lot of climbing metres but it’s unclear how decisive this stage will be for the GC. The final climb is long at 12.5km, but averages just 5.7% with just one small section that max’s out at 9% before it flattens out for the final few kilometres. Unless that’s ridden very hard then it’s unlikely to cause any splits. 

There are of course two first-category climbs earlier in the day, and some teams may want to put the heat on early in the stage. Those two teams would be Sunweb and Ineos. The noises coming out of Ineos yesterday were that they were not going to ride like a GC team and remain opportunistic stage hunters. That might become more difficult if Geoghegan Hart is a genuine pink jersey challenger; they might sit back and be less aggressive today. 

Sunweb on the other hand will be looking to put as much pressure on DCQS as possible and that will mean trying to reduce their numbers, perhaps on the second first-category. All in all, it’s probably wise to play the GC and breakaway for the stage win.

Contenders

Prices are out and Tao Geoghegan Hart has been installed as favourite at around 5/1. He looked super strong on Sunday and if he can reproduce that form is sure to go close should the breakaway be chased down. 

As suggested above, the book is split between breakaway and GC. At around 10/1 is Ilnur Zakarin and I’m sorry but I can’t be having the Russian at that price. He loses time on every descent and hasn’t really looked that impressive going uphill either this Giro. 

João Almeida and Wilco Kelderman are available at around 12/1 and of those I’d be more inclined to go for Almeida due to his faster finish as he may not get distanced on the climb. Take your pick of GC contenders after that but none have shown the form of the three above so they’d be a shot in the dark.  

I’ve mentioned him a couple of times but surely Tanel Kangert will go up the road today and go for the stage win – he has to be in the selections. Other breakaway candidates are Thomas De Gendt, Ruben Guerreiro and Aurélien Paret-Peintre. 

Sergio Semitier did his chances no good yesterday by moving closer to the GC which may restrict his chances of getting in the break. I’ll go with the super strong Ben O’Connor – let’s hope he’s not on duty to look after Domenico Pozzovivo and can be given his head to go for the stage win. I’m wondering also if Ineos will try to play both hands and send Rohan Dennis up the road again – he’s definitely capable of a stage win somewhere.

Tanel Kangert 1pt ew (1/4 1 2 3) @16/1

João Almeida 1pt ew (1/4 1 2 3) @14/1

Ben O’Connor 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @28/1

Rohan Dennis 0.25pts ew (1/4 1 2 3) @100/1

Stage 17 Result

1st Ben O’Connor; 2nd Hermann Pernsteiner; 3rd Thomas De Gendt; 4th Ilnur Zakarin

Recommended:

Tanel Kangert 1pt ew (1/4 1 2 3) @16/1 – lost (-2pts)

João Almeida 1pt ew (1/4 1 2 3) @14/1 – lost (-2pts)

Ben O’Connor 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @28/1 – won (+33.6pts)

Rohan Dennis 0.25pts ew (1/4 1 2 3) @100/1 – lost (-0.5pts)

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

Chapeau! As thought, the final climb was not tough enough to make big differences between GC guys and no team was willing to take it up from a long way out with a big day ahead tomorrow. So the breakaway had its day – De Gendt seemed to ruin his own chances again by doing too much work then failing to latch on to O’Connor’s attack. Dennis was looking good but didn’t quite have it in the end.

Total Stakes: 105.5pts; Profit/Loss: -0.1pts (-0.1%)