Stage 18 – Pinzolo > Laghi di Cancano (207km)

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Preview

With Saturday’s route likely to be amended due to Covid restrictions, today could be the final day when meaningful time gaps can be achieved. Luckily, we have the terrain to do that which includes the Cima Coppi over the Stelvio pass. 

I think we can expect Sunweb to drive the pace into that climb which tops out around 40km from the line. But it’s not the last of the climbing as they still have to tackle a tough first-category of 8.7km at an average of 6.8% where differences, given there’ll be plenty of weary legs, can also be made. 

It’s difficult to see how a breakaway can stay away as they’d probably need upwards of 10 minutes going into the almost 25km Stelvio climb in order to stay away. 

The road heads up from the gun so a group of strong climbers will be able to get clear. Some teams will be looking to fire men up the road to support their leaders later – O’Connor, Dennis and Fabbro spring to mind. This is clearly going to be a huge test for Almeida and there’s likely to be a very select group left by the time they summit the Cima Coppi.

Contenders

On balance, I think João Almeida will be exposed today and lose his GC lead. Sunweb, after keeping a surprisingly low profile yesterday, will surely put some serious heat on DCQS. 

Though not known for his dynamic attacks, Wilco Kelderman has to go all in today to try to wrest the jersey from Almeida’s shoulders. He looks to have the form, he just needs the belief to do it. Jai Hindley will be riding in support and so it’s tricky to judge his chances for the stage. 

Tao Geoghegan Hart will also be looking to attack to lift himself into a podium position or challenge for the win – he’s favourite at a very short 9/4. 

All of the other GC contenders - Rafał Majka, Pello Bilbao, Patrick Konrad, Vincenzo Nibali, Jakob Fuglsang and Domenico Pozzovivo have looked a level below the front four so their only chance of victory would appear to be a long range attack that is not followed, but with each defending their GC position the dominoes should fall to prevent that. 

Just in case, I’m adding Tanel Kangert again as these long climbs really suit him and he might finally make the break.

Wilco Kelderman 2pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @9/1 

Tanel Kangert 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @16/1

Stage 18 Result

1st Jai Hindley; 2nd Tao Geoghegan Hart; 3rd Pello Bilbao; 4th Jakob Fuglsang

Recommended:

Wilco Kelderman 2pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @9/1 – lost (-4pts)

Tanel Kangert 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @16/1 – lost (-2pts)

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

No chapeau. Sunweb worked well to put the hammer down on the Stelvio, quickly decimating the GC group, including pink jersey wearer Almeida. But they found themselves in a tricky position when Kelderman got dropped. Ineos then took it up; Hindley stayed with Geoghegan Hart and Dennis – who was man of the match with a monster ride. In the end, Kelderman survived to take the pink jersey, just. Hindley, who couldn’t attack as it would’ve jeopardized his teammates GC position, sprinted to victory.

Total Stakes: 111.5pts; Profit/Loss: -6.1pts (-5.5%)