Stage 19 – Morbegno > Asti (258km)

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Preview

After the drama of yesterday, we have a potential bore-fest with a ridiculously long, flat stage that, assuming there are some sprint teams that still have some legs, will be settled by the fast men. 

The final is quite technical with numerous roundabouts and turns which will suit a leadout that stays on the front.

With so many miles in the legs it’s not impossible that sprinters don’t have their day. We’re assuming that FDJ will be left to do all the work with Démare four for four in sprints so far, and they may be vulnerable either to a strong break staying away or a late attacker that snatches 10 seconds and doesn’t come back.

That said, sprint teams have spent days in the mountains just for this last chance and are unlikely to squander it.

Contenders

Arnaud Démare is around even money for the stage. I’ve balked at backing him at such a short price given how chaotic sprints can sometimes be, but he really does look unbeatable at the moment. That said, all the riders have a huge number of kilometres on the clock now and you never know how riders are going to come out of it, especially the stage after the Stelvio. For this reason I’ll be staying away from Démare again on value grounds. 

To show just how disappointing speed merchants have been this Giro, Démare aside, second favourite is Peter Sagan at around 4s which you could argue is a bet to nothing if you assume he’ll make the frame. DCQS pair Álvaro Hodeg and Davide Ballerini come next at around 7/1 and 10/1 respectively. Hodeg got up for third in the last sprint, and we assume he’ll be backed again today for this flat, speed finish. Ballerini has impressed a lot doing a huge amount of work on the front for Almeida, he’ll probably lead Hodeg out unless the Colombian is on his knees after the mountains. 

Elia Viviani is also at 10s but has shown nothing to suggest he can come out on top here. After that, you’re probably hoping for a crash in the final straight for Rick Zabel, Ben Swift, Andrea Vendrame or Davide Cimolai to be raising their arms on the line, and I’m not going to be rooting for that.

Peter Sagan 1pt ew @4/1

Stage 19 Result

1st Josef Černý; 2nd Victor Campanaerts; 3rd Jacopo Mosca

Recommended:

Peter Sagan 1pt ew @4/1 – lost (-2pts)

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

No chapeau. Chaos of a day with some (though not all) riders unhappy with the length of the course in cold, wet conditions after such a tough Giro, leading to a protest and subsequent shortening of the stage. Only Bora were interested in trying to bring back a big, strong breakaway with FDJ refusing to lend a hand in the final installment of their bickering about responsibilities. With about 60km to go it was clear that they couldn’t do it single handedly and called it off. Černý broke clear of the break inside the last 20km and despite some very strong engines behind in the shape of Campanaerts and Keisse wasn’t brought back – a deserved winner to end a bizarre day.

Total Stakes: 113.5pts; Profit/Loss: -8.1pts (-7.1%)