Stage 7 – Matera > Brindisi (143km)

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Preview

Yesterday must have been a little dispiriting for sprinters that aren’t Arnaud Démare. The profile was by no means flat, yet they still couldn’t turn over the fastest man on the startlist. So, when it comes to a much flatter stage and finish like today, you would assume that it’ll be an open goal for the French champion. 

However, being the overall favourite brings a target on your back. FDJ didn’t do a scrap of work yesterday, but they won’t get that luxury today. We also haven’t actually seen how the other fast men – Gaviria, Viviani and Hodeg – are going as all of the finals so far have been too tough for the pure sprinters. On top of that, there could well be crosswinds at play which will cause nervousness amongst the GC and sprinter teams alike. 

So, all that doesn’t necessarily make it as easy as I’m sure the price will suggest. Démare is the likeliest winner, but there are perhaps too many variables to back him.

Contenders

As expected, Arnaud Démare has opened up a strong favourite at around 11/10. The final doesn’t appear too technical with long, straight, flat roads, and assuming the crosswinds don’t cause havoc then Démare has the best leadout and is likely to complete a hattrick of stage wins within the first seven stages. 

Fernando Gaviria is next in the betting – 9/4 is available on him which seems skinny considering we’ve seen nothing from him so far. That’s partly because he’s been working for others and despite being a class act, I’m not sure how confident I am that he can turn over Démare. If bigger odds become available – something closer to 3s – then he might be a bet.

Next in the betting are Peter Sagan, Elia Viviani and Álvaro Hodeg at around 7-8/1. Sagan was the big favourite for yesterday’s stage which suited him perfectly, and he didn’t even make a place. That was hugely disappointing considering he’s actually looked pretty good up to now in this Giro and came within millimetres of beating Démare in a straight up sprint a few days ago. Bora will be smarting after yesterday – they did a lot right but messed up the final and even the intermediate sprint when Sagan missed the jump onto Bodnar’s wheel, so we might see a reaction today and there’s none better than Sagan if it does blow hard. Viviani was up there in 5th on stage 4 and not that far behind the leading players – with a better leadout he has a chance on this stage that suits him better but I’d want odds in double figures really. 

Hodeg has pretty much finished last on every stage so far – if he isn’t in contention for a stage like this then I’m not sure why he’s here. It’s a leap of faith to think he’s been saving himself and is suddenly going to produce stellar form from nowhere. 

Hodeg hasn’t won a race this year with both Rudy Barbier and Juan Molano having his number. Barbier is twice the price of Hodeg and probably makes more appeal, but it’s still a stretch to see him winning. 

Michael Matthews is around 16s but hasn’t demonstrated the speed to win a pure sprint finish. That said, he’s been placed twice and “won” the sprint on Ulissi’s stage. Those odds are attractive, perhaps worth a small interest on a classy rider. 

There’s Davide Ballerini and Davide Cimolai at around 20s but logic would suggest they won’t be the chosen sprinters in their teams for this stage, and Ballerini might be put to work to protect Almeida. 

For me, this is almost a no bet stage. I’m not sure how much value there is on going big on a Démare win – sprints can be chaotic and tricky to execute well. I’m going to give Sagan another go. Bora won’t have to use up their men to bring back the breakaway today which should help them in the final, and if we see echelons could shed some of the fast men in weaker teams – unfortunately, that’s unlikely to include Démare.

Peter Sagan 1pt ew (1/4 1 2 3) @7/1

Michael Matthews 0.5pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @16/1

Stage 7 Result

1st Arnaud Démare; 2nd Peter Sagan; 3rd Michael Matthews; 4th Ben Swift

Recommended:

Peter Sagan 1pt ew (1/4 1 2 3) @7/1 – placed (+0.75pts)

Michael Matthews 0.5pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @16/1 – placed (+1.1pts)

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

Chapeau! That’s as good a result as I could’ve got I think. It wasn’t worth going huge on Démare even though he did end up winning – there were too many variables to justify backing at such short odds. For the first half of the stage it was panic stations as many of the GC guys got caught out in crosswinds that split the peloton into pieces. In the end everyone got back on, but the likes of Yates, Pozzovivo, and especially Vanhoucke were very lucky. The last km was pretty technical and even the FDJ train was a bit disjointed. But when Démare hit the front, the result didn’t look in doubt, though there was a question about whether he cut across Sagan a bit. A relegation would’ve been harsh, and in the end the fastest guy won. Viviani and Gaviria never got involved, Ballerini finished 7th despite being put to work all day – think he deserves to be protected for a couple of these stages going forward, but whilst Almeida is in pink it’s unlikely.

Total Stakes: 40.5pts; Profit/Loss: -22.4pts (-55.2%)