Stage 8 – Giovinazzo > Vieste (200km)

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Preview

The first half of this stage is completely flat along the coast – we’ll have to see the forecast to see if the wind will be a factor. From there they go inland to tackle a difficult second-category climb where some sprinters may get dropped if the pace is up. 

They have 80km or so to get back on but the final third of the stage is also spikey, so pure sprinters may prefer to fight another day. The final Vieste circuit is tackled twice and includes a sharp climb of 1km peaking up to 17% where attacks will be launched and sprint teams will have difficulty controlling the front. 

A breakaway win isn’t out of the question, but the flat start should mean that its constituents and numbers can be easily managed by teams that have an eye on a stage win. The win will likely come from either an explosive attack on the final rise 10km from the line, or a classics sprinter whose team is strong enough to keep it together.

Contenders

I have to say I am surprised to see Arnaud Démare installed as favourite for this one. But chapeau if FDJ can control the attacks and deliver their man again for the win – that would be really impressive. Surely one the classics sprinters or puncheurs can turn him over this time. 

Peter Sagan is around 9/2 and this is another great opportunity for him to get his first win in over a year. Again, it depends on how Bora can control and bring back any attacks over that rise 10km from the line. It’s a spike rather than a drag though, and it’s a full kilometre so anyone with explosive climbing legs will distance the peloton whether other teams like it or not. The problem is that they have to stay out front for a long time and it will probably take a small group to get clear then work together to take it to the line. 

Michael Matthews is in a similar position to Sagan, he won’t be able to follow any attacks and will have to rely on his team to bring him back to the front by the flamme rouge and if they do he’ll have a great chance. It will be a great shame if we end this Giro and Bling doesn’t have a stage win to his name – another place yesterday but he was flying at the line, saw off plenty of so-called pure sprinters and with better positioning could easily have challenged. He’s not getting a full leadout from Sunweb with Kelderman being the protected rider which is hurting his chances.

Diego Ulissi is capable of gapping the group but can he take it to the line? 7/1 seems short with so many variables. Davide Ballerini showed his class yesterday – made to work all day to protect Almeida and still managed to sprint for 7th. DCQS might think of protecting him a bit more for a final, but I’m not sure he’s backable at around 10s when you’re not sure if he’s going to be given licence. 

Perennial breakaway specialist Thomas De Gendt is next in the betting and I think we’ll have to get used to him being short for every stage. He’s clearly got great legs but I didn’t like what I saw yesterday – there was no need for him to be in the initial breakaway which had a very small chance of seeing it home. And when Vanhoucke was distanced in the crosswinds Lotto surely could’ve done with him protecting his GC leader from the start. De Gendt did go back and start pulling in the end, but Vanhoucke was very lucky not to lose a huge chunk of time and his GC challenge would’ve been over. 

Fabio Felline is available at around 20s – it was a surprise that Astana backed him a couple of days ago, one of the few teams to pull at the front and Felline didn’t disappoint with a great 3rd. 

Ineos pair Ben Swift and Jhonatan Narváez are available at around 25s. In a way it’s a shame Swift finished so high up yesterday as this stage is more up his street and he might’ve been available at a bigger price. On the stage into Matera it was Narváez who was protected but he could only finish 10th. Narváez comes in with great form from Coppi e Bartali, but this is still a debut Grand Tour and it might take time for him to come good. Swift has the experience to position himself better and may be a better bet. 

This is a tricky stage to predict with plenty of potential escapees – Simon Clarke, Ruben Guerreiro and Enrico Battaglin spring to mind. I think on balance that the 10km distance from the final climb should be enough for it to come back together which makes it a Sagan/Matthews day. I’m also going to have a small interest on Lucas Hamilton who is excellent on these short climbs, is on good form, has a good sprint and might see this as an opportunity to steal a few seconds on the GC.

Peter Sagan 1pt win @9/2

Michael Matthews 1pt ew (1/4 1 2 3) @13/2

Lucas Hamilton 0.25pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @200/1

Stage 8 Result

1st Alex Dowsett; 2nd Salvatore Puccio; 3rd Matthew Holmes; 4th Joey Rosskoff

Recommended:

Peter Sagan 1pt win @9/2 – lost (-2pts)

Michael Matthews 1pt ew (1/4 1 2 3) @13/2 – lost (-2pts)

Lucas Hamilton 0.25pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @200/1 – lost (-0.5pts)

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

No chapeau. Two days ago Bora were given no help by other sprint teams to bring back a breakaway of nearly 10 minutes, only to be left short of manpower in the final and Démare to sweep to victory. Today, they refused to be pushed into doing the same thing again and no other team was willing to put their team to work in what was a tricky final which may not have ended in a sprint anyway. That, combined with a tired peloton after the crosswinds of yesterday, and GC teams looking to a big climbing day ahead of them tomorrow, meant the breakaway was allowed to contest for the win. Israel looked like they’d messed up big time when both their riders were dropped on the first of two ascents in Vieste, but they clawed their way back and perfectly executed the 1-2 attack to seal the win.

Total Stakes: 44.0pts; Profit/Loss: -26.9pts (-61.1%)