Tour de France 2023

Stage 2 – Vitoria-Gasteiz > Saint-Sébastien (208.7km)

Profile

Stage 1 Result

1st Adam Yates (80/1)

2nd Simon Yates (80/1)

3rd Tadej Pogačar (11/4F)

4th Thibaut Pinot (500/1)

Stage 1 Bets

Mathieu van der Poel 1pt win @11/2

No caps awarded on the chapeau-meter with some big prices filling the places. Van der Poel was never well positioned, lacking teammates but also the legs in what turned into a very tough day for many. Podium hopefuls Enric Mas and Richard Carapaz are already out and a handful of other top 10 contenders will have to redraw their ambitions.

Stage 2 Preview

The second stage in the Basque Country is being billed as a mini-Donastia San Sebastian Klasikoa – the one-day race ordinarily held just after the Tour de France. Though at 208km – the longest stage in this year’s Tour – and over 3000m of altitude gain, there’s not much mini about it and the riders can expect another very tough day in the saddle after an energy-sapping opening stage.

The decisive climb will be the second-category Jaizibel at 8.1km averaging 5.3%, but over 7% for the final 3km. This peaks with just 16km to go and will trim down the field. There’s another little bump about 3km out which could be a launchpad for late attacks but we should see some sort of reduced bunch sprint on the seafront in San Sebastian.

Stage 2 Contenders

So we’re looking for riders that can survive a long, solid day out with some challenging climbs but can then produce a fast finish on the line. Teams with riders of this profile will look to go hard on the Jaizabel to make sure as many sprinters are shelled out the back as possible – ideally, all of them.

Prime suspects for this will be Jumbo-Visma for stage favourite Wout van Aert. They showed good commitment on the front during Saturday’s stage but were unable to deliver Van Aert for the win – that should make them extra-motivated to get it right on stage 2. Will there be anyone left who is faster than the Belgian? He’s short though at just 3/1.

Alpecin-Deceuninck should also ride for Mathieu van der Poel who disappointed on stage 1. He was never in contention and probably pulled the pin to save his legs when he knew the win had gone. That energy saved could benefit him here. His team may also fancy their chances with Jasper Philpsen – he’s probably the fastest sprinter in the world right now but isn’t too shabby uphill either. Other teams must get rid of Philipsen to increase their chances if winning the sprint.

To the list of sprinters that could also get over the climbs, we must also add Israel Premier Tech’s Corbin Strong. What a performance from the young Kiwi on stage 1 – winning the sprint from the second group to finish 15th. Both Strong and Philipsen are around the 20/1 mark.

Also looking to survive the climb will be Lidl-Trek’s Mads Pedersen who is targeting the green jersey as well as stage wins. At his best, this is a good stage for the former world champion but, apart from a run-out at the Danish nationals last week, has been off the bike since abandoning the Giro d’Italia with a throat infection in May. He was dropped pretty quickly on stage 1, though that could’ve been to save his legs. Still, it’s a leap of faith to back him for this given the fierce competition.

Making more appeal is Intermarché-Circus-Wanty’s Biniam Girmay who finished halfway up the field after battling back to the front group. Girmay comes off the back of a win at the Tour de Suisse, beating Van Aert and Arnaud Démare with a well-timed sprint. There should be plenty of chances for the Eritrean superstar during this Tour and this is the first – a nation, maybe even a continent will be watching.

Bahrain-Victorious’ Fred Wright appeared to take it a little easy on stage 1, finishing 11mins down, so he may be planning something here, perhaps getting in the day’s break or just making sure he’s fresh enough to contest the final. He should be active and there or thereabouts but may find one or two faster.

Movistar’s hopes of a Tour podium are already over following Enric Mas’ abandonment. They can look to stage hunt and maybe an outside chance of a GC top 10 with Mateo Jorgensen but should be all-in for Alex Aranburu for this. A Basque winner would be a nice way to end the Grand Départ weekend and he’s in decent form after a third in the Spanish nationals, but he rarely gets his nose in front and the 20/1 doesn’t appeal.

At a much bigger price, Lotto Dstny’s Maxim Van Gils followed Strong and Aranburu home in 17th on stage 1. The young Belgian impressed at the Volta Ciclista a Catalunya and more recently at the Critérium du Dauphiné with some high-placed finishes on classics-style parcours. He withdrew from the Dauphiné with a cold but his solid start to the race suggests he’s recovered well. The tougher the better for Van Gils and although the win seems a stretch, 70/1 is attractive enough to be added to the pot.

Stage 2 Bets

Biniam Girmay 1pt each way (3 places) @16/1

Maxim Van Gils 0.5pts each way (3 places) @70/1

Posted 21.23 BST Sat 1st July 2023

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Tour de France at Oddschecker

[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

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