Vuelta a España 2024
Stage 1 – Lisboa > Oeiras (12.0km) ITT
Sat 17th Aug | First Start: 16:23 CET
Profile
Stage 1 Preview
Where: From the capital of Portugal, Lisbon, travelling west along the coast towards the mouth of the Tagus River.
Stage Type: Individual Time Trial.
Weather: Hot – over 30˚ with a northerly breeze that’s forecast to strengthen in the late afternoon/evening. No chance of rain.
Climbs: None. The profile above exaggerates the small rise in the middle due to the scale on the y-axis.
Stage suits: Time trial specialists.
Stage 1 Contenders
Josh Tarling (4/9; 1.44) was desperately unlucky in the Paris Olympics time trial suffering a front tyre puncture which cost him a medal, maybe even a gold one. Assuming he’s held his form and recovered mentally from that huge disappointment, the Welshman is in a great position to give Ineos Grenadiers a much-needed boost and take the first leader’s jersey. The flat course and lack of corners will allow him to use his immense power even though, as a specialist, he’d no doubt prefer a longer route.
Wout van Aert (7/2; 4.5) denied Tarling a bronze medal by less than 2secs and then followed up with a good showing in the road race, tagging Mathieu van der Poel’s attacks as Remco Evenepoel flew away. With so few fast men on the start sheet, Van Aert could hoover up a number of stages at this year’s Vuelta and isn’t without a chance in the opener.
Jay Vine (16/1) suffered spinal injuries in the awful Basque Country crash in April that took out, among others, Jonas Vingegaard, and only returned to racing a couple of weeks ago in the Vuelta a Burgos. Incredibly, he went and won the time trial and although his other performances were more subdued cannot be ruled out in his favoured discipline. Became a dad for the first time on Wednesday so should be happy whatever the result.
Brandon McNulty (18/1) finished fifth in Paris, 30secs behind Tarling and Van Aert, so tricky to see him turning the tables here though a top 5 is not out of the question for the US time trial champion. Both Vine and McNulty will be important mountain domestiques for UAE Team Emirates over the next three weeks so avoiding a massive prang against a railing should be the priority.
Stefan Küng (22/1) seemed in decent form at the Olympics and the uncomplicated route favours him – top 3 potential.
Primož Roglič (33/1) comes in with somewhat unknown form having not raced since crashing out of the Tour de France in July. Says he’s still in pain which can’t be ideal, but on the upside, he’s used to it having followed similar paths to victory at three previous Vueltas. Roglič is favourite again to bag an historic fourth win though is probably best left out as a player for this stage.
João Almeida (80/1) finished fourth in the Tour having looked in great form since the start of the summer and, with the principle three-week racers absent and Roglič fresh off another fall, has a great chance to win his first Grand Tour. The flat route for this opening stage isn’t to his benefit but he’s still very decent against the clock and a strong showing is likely given the race starts in his home country.
Mathias Vacek (150/1) was pipped into second by Søren Wærenskjold in the Belgium Tour and has improved his time trialling ability a huge amount over the last year. A few more hills would’ve helped but the young Czech champion appears to be very much on an upward trajectory and a top 5 showing can’t be ruled out at a big price.
Antonio Tiberi (250/1) had an excellent Giro d’Italia winning the young riders jersey and finishing fifth overall. Was understandably not at his best at the Vuelta a Burgos a couple of weeks ago after an extended break and so is best left for this but has a big shot of standing on the podium in three-weeks’ time.
Stage 1 Bets
Home crowds could inspire João Almeida to sneak into the top 3 at a decent 7/1, but let’s keep it simple – assuming his tyres stay pumped, Josh Tarling can banish the disappointment of Paris and take the first maillot rojo on a course that suits.
Josh Tarling 2pts win @4/9
Posted 20:07 BST Fri 16th Aug 2024
Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
Stage 1 Result
1st Brandon McNulty (18/1)
2nd Mathias Vacek (150/1)
3rd Wout van Aert (7/2)
[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
