Tour de France 2022

Stage 10 – Morzine Les Portes du Soleil > Megève (148.1km)

Profile

Stage 9 Result

1st Bob Jungels (33/1)

2nd Jonathan Castroviejo (150/1)

3rd Carlos Verona (40/1)

4th Thibaut Pinot (16/1)

Stage 9 Bets

3pts win Lennard Kämna @9/1

1pt win Michael Storer @20/1

1pt each way (4 places) Patrick Konrad @25/1

1pt each way (4 places) Bob Jungels @33/1 – 1st

0.5pts each way (4 places) Stefan Küng @150/1

0.5pts each way (4 places) Romain Bardet @150/1

For a long way it looked like heartbreak but what a ride from Jungels. A big, strong group eventually got clear but it included EF’s Rigoberto Urán who, at only 3mins 24secs from GC, was too big a threat for UAE to let go and almost doomed the break. Luckily, and perhaps diplomatically, they left four guys out front to battle it out.

Stage 10 Preview

We’re back after the rest day and a relentless first full week of racing with a short medium mountain stage through the Alps. There are four categorised hills to get over ending with the hardest – a 19.2km second-category at 4.1% with some tougher 7% sections nearer the top.

Those ramps aren’t steep enough for GC favourites to make a difference, and with two difficult mountain stages to follow, we’re likely to see a breakaway group fighting it out for the win. It’ll be difficult for it to form on the downhill start so many will fire their bullets on the first climb of the day after 16km and test their luck.

Stage 10 Contenders

A couple of stages (6 & 8) have looked set up for breakaway wins but that hasn’t been the case. We got one on stage 9 but only just and certainly not in the traditional way of a group being allowed a large gap to contest the win unopposed.

So it’s been an unpredictable Tour de France in that sense and who knows what will happen here. But all logic suggests that this one will be taken by the break. Who gets up the road? There’s often a large dose of luck involved, but here are some candidates – we’ll pick a few and try to get a run for our money.

Wout van Aert is an obvious starter. However, with such a big lead in the green jersey competition and two stage victories already to his name, he may sit this one out. He’s also sure to be on full domestique duty come the mountains on Wednesday and Thursday so it makes sense for him to conserve some energy here.

Surely Bora-hansgrohe’s Lennard Kämna will win a stage at some point. He’s looking too good not to. A tougher stage is perhaps better for him and it’s possible he saves his legs for later, but I think he’ll give the break a go. Unsurprisingly, Kämna is favourite with most bookmakers at a best price of 7/1.

Bora have another excellent option in Max Schachmann at 33/1 – who seems to take a tumble every day – and current and former Austrian champions Felix Großschartner and Patrick Konrad. Konrad was a pick on stage 9 and made the break but ultimately found four or five riders stronger than him, and that puts me off having him again.

I’ve put him up a couple of times and things haven’t quite worked out but EF Education-Easypost’s Alberto Bettiol also looks like a stage winner in waiting. Is the final climb too tough for him? Possibly – it depends on who’s left in the front group. The 25/1 about him isn’t super generous but I think he has to be in the pot.

This is also a good stage for his teammate Magnus Cort. He had a tiring first week defending the mountains jersey but is more than capable of coming out fresh from the rest day and taking this. He’s available at a tempting 33/1.

A similar rider to Bettiol is Lotto Soudal’s Andreas Kron. An uphill finish after a hilly day is perfect for the young Dane as he showed on stage 8 finishing fourth (and squeezing Bettiol out of the place money!) He’s also priced at around the 25/1 mark.

After winning stage 9, I wonder if Bob Jungels will switch his focus to the polka dot jersey. He’s sitting only one point behind Cofidis’ Simon Geschke. If so, he’ll be up the road here. It’s another good stage for both of them though I’m always reluctant to put up riders chasing the jersey due to the energy they expend sprinting for points.

Alongside Geschke, and now that their leader Guillaume Martin has gone home with Covid, Cofidis have a couple of other excellent stage hunting cards to play. Victor Lafay is either saving himself or struggling as his highest finish so far in the Tour has been 137th. Still, he did pick up a Grand Tour stage win at last year’s Giro d’Italia – so far his only pro win. But I prefer Benjamin Thomas who was in great nick at the Critérium de Dauphiné last month and had a good finish on the hilly stage 8. There’s 40/1 about the former French time trial champion.  

Again, Trek-Segafredo will be throwing men forward. Bauke Mollema has the class to clean this one up but complained of sickness after stage 8 so a watching brief is probably wise.  

It’s not original, but Quinn Simmons keeps being priced up at tempting odds. He’s stated that the higher mountains are perhaps a little too tough for him, so expect him to be active here. A small interest at 80/1 can’t be missed.

Don’t be surprised to also see Jasper Stuyven up there too and is available at 250/1. Though he’s likely to find better climbers with him in the final and may even be put to work for a teammate – hopefully Simmons!

Finally, Groupama-FDJ went close with Thibaut Pinot on stage 9. It would be great to see him win (not that I was cheering for him to beat Jungels!) and he described that as his first day with good feelings. He’ll be out hunting again soon but will probably wait for the higher stuff.

I fear missing the day that Michael Storer is allowed to go for a stage. At the moment he’s on a tight leash guarding David Gaudu who will need him later this week. So too Valentin Madouas who goes under the radar but is having an excellent Tour, currently up in 18th on GC. The lower gradients are more to the liking of the powerful Swiss Stefan Küng who could diesel himself clear on the final climb.

No GC saver for this one – all in for the breakaway … which is risky given what we saw last week. Plenty others are in with chances but hopefully a couple can make the break and play for the win.

Stage 10 Bets

3pts win Lennard Kämna @7/1

1pt each way (4 places) Alberto Bettiol @22/1

1pt each way (4 places) Benjamin Thomas @40/1

0.5pts each way (4 places) Quinn Simmons @80/1

0.5pts each way (4 places) Stefan Küng @50/1

Posted 1950 BST Mon 11th July 2022

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Tour de France at Oddschecker