Tour de France 2022

Stage 9 – Aigle > Châtel Les Portes du Soleil (192.9km)

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Stage 8 Result

1st Wout van Aert (3/1F)

2nd Michael Matthews (14/1)

3rd Tadej Pogačar (11/1)

4th Andreas Kron (40/1)

Stage 8 Bets

1pt each way (4 places) Christophe Laporte @25/1

1pt each way (4 places) Alberto Bettiol @20/1 – 5th

1pt each way (4 places) Quinn Simmons @66/1

1pt each way (4 places) Jasper Stuyven @40/1

A crash after 10km put lots of GC men out the back, ruined the chance of a big break going clear and in turn did for the day’s picks. So we’ll never know what would’ve happened. Trek’s Stuyven and Simmons were involved in early moves. Laporte was full time domestique. Bettiol sprinted well to finish 5th, just outside the places. And of course, Van Aert won.

Watch the final kilometre

Stage 9 Preview

We stay in Switzerland for the majority of the day before a finish back over the French border which brings to an end the first full week of racing in this year’s Tour de France. There are four categorised climbs including two first-category so this will be a pivotal day in the mountains competition.

The Col de la Croix (8.1km at 7.6%) is crested with 60km to go before the riders head over the Pas de Morgins (15.4km at 6.1%). Any differences will need to be made in the first 10km of that last climb as it levels off near the top. There’s then a descent followed by a further 4km rise to the line.  

Stage 9 Contenders

GC or breakaway? We’ve had only one breakaway win from the seven road stages so far which is counter to the current trend in Grand Tours. Neither Tadej Pogačar or Wout van Aert have been in the mood to share the spoils. If UAE Team Emirates chase down the break to set up Pogačar for a third win here, there might be some disgruntlement amongst the peloton. Just because you can win every stage doesn’t mean you should.

UAE lost Vegard Stake Laengen to a Covid positive on Friday evening and late replacement Marc Hirschi is way below his top level so they might be wise not to burn up their remaining troops with more than two weeks to go.

Of course other teams may want to put pressure on that weakened line-up which could also do for the break. Jumbo-Visma with Jonas Vingegaard and a recovering Primož Roglič may turn the screw and try to shake out some rivals, and Ineos Grenadiers with four riders in the top 10 can use those numbers to launch attacks.

The final categorised climb is not super steep so it would have to be ridden hard to put the leading players in trouble and we may not see the GC dust-up we’d like.

On balance, this one is tipped towards the breakaway but the normal rules haven’t applied in this Tour so far. If it comes back together, then Pogačar is the obvious favourite and has been installed as such at 11/2. It’s quite a shallow uphill run to the line so a rider with a kick would be a good GC saver.

Aleksandr Vlasov at 66/1 put in a good showing on stage 8 after his fall two days previously, David Gaudu looks in the form of his life and sprints well – there’s 80/1 about him. Romain Bardet at even bigger odds is also one to consider should a group arrive together. But it would be difficult to see any of them beating Pogačar.

For the breakaway, one rider stands out. Lennard Kämna was sensational up La Planche des Belles Filles. He has a bit more time now on GC which should give him some leeway for the break. The price isn’t super generous, but Kämna has to be part of any staking plan – on the nose at 9/1.

If Kämna fails to make the break – and an element of luck will be involved due to the flat start – then Bora-hansgrohe have other great options in Patrick Konrad, Max Schachmann and Felix Großschartner who are all in the top 25 or so in the betting market.

Groupama-FDJ are interesting. Thibaut Pinot was sick a week before the Tour and managed to both fall and get whacked in the face by a Trek soigneur within the space of a few kilometres on stage 8. For a moment it looked like another tearful abandonment. But no, and if he’s got the legs, then this is the day to get up the road.

It's not just Pinot for FDJ – Valentin Madouas, Stefan Küng and Michael Storer are all capable of winning from the break. Despite Gaudu sitting in fifth place on GC, Pinot will be allowed up the road, but what about the others? Küng finished fifth in his home Tour de Suisse recently and his climbing has improved immeasurable. Storer impressed when guiding Gaudu a long way up La Planche des Belles Filles on Friday – he’s a super talent that we need to keep on side.

Trek-Segafredo will want representation. Bauke Mollema complained of sickness after stage 8 so it’s best to leave him alone for now. Quinn Simmons is full of beans and Toms Skujiņš is looking good but probably a little close on GC at just 4mins 32secs.

Jakob Fuglsang was targeting GC but is now over 10mins down. He will need to shift his focus to stage wins and this is his first big chance. His Israel-Premier Tech teammate Michael Woods is likely to also try for the break.

A whole host of others could be in the mix. EF Education-Easypost’s Ruben Guerreiro is short at just 14/1 considering he’s been mainly hanging around the back of the peloton recovering from his falls, though clearly has the talent to win a stage like this. Pierre Latour for TotalEnergies rode with the favourites up to the climb in Longwy to show he’s clearly going well.

And even a resurgent Bob Jungels is not without a chance – the flat start is good for him, so too the long diesel climb and he can sprint if it came to it. An impressive ninth on stage 8, the Luxembourg champion has almost 7mins on GC which is probably acceptable to be given a pass.

Without an uphill start, some luck will be needed to make the break, so the net is thrown wide with the stage picks and includes a speculative GC saver … just in case!

Stage 9 Bets

3pts win Lennard Kämna @9/1

1pt win Michael Storer @20/1

1pt each way (4 places) Patrick Konrad @25/1

1pt each way (4 places) Bob Jungels @33/1

0.5pts each way (4 places) Stefan Küng @150/1

0.5pts each way (4 places) Romain Bardet @150/1

Posted 2139 BST Sat 9th July 2022

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