Tour de France 2022

Stage 11 – Albertville > Col du Granon Serre Chevalier (151.7km)

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Stage 10 Result

1st Magnus Cort (33/1)

2nd Nick Schultz (40/1)

3rd Luis León Sánchez (150/1)

4th Matteo Jorgenson (80/1)

Stage 10 Bets

3pts win Lennard Kämna @7/1 – 10th

1pt each way (4 places) Alberto Bettiol @22/1

1pt each way (4 places) Benjamin Thomas @40/1 – 7th

0.5pts each way (4 places) Quinn Simmons @80/1 – 11th

0.5pts each way (4 places) Stefan Küng @50/1

Looked very promising with four of the five picks in the break, but it got very tactical with gradients not stiff enough to make a gap. Bettiol attacked in the valley but was caught on the climb, Kämna as the big favourite was lent on and couldn’t get away, Simmons tended to do too much work and was dropped a few km from home, and Thomas, who hit the front inside the last 300m, ran out of gas in the sprint.

Stage 11 Preview

The first of two huge days in the Alps which will go a long way to determining the winner of this year’s Tour de France. The stage ends with two hors categorie climbs – the Col du Galibier (17.7km at 6.9%) and the summit finish up the Col du Granon (11.3km at 9.2%). Two mighty mountains that peak at over 8,000ft above sea level.  

The heatwave engulfing many parts of Europe could also influence the race with temperatures expected to be in the mid-30s, though obviously it’ll get cooler as they go up. This is also an opportunity for a breakaway rider to take a significant lead in the mountains competition. But given the brutal final, the stage is likely to be won by a GC man.

Stage 11 Contenders

Any breakaway riders still out front at the foot of the Col du Granon will lose minutes given the gradients involved over such a long distance and the guaranteed attacks from behind. So the stage is very much tilted towards a GC win. But you never know, so a couple of breakaway savers is wise.

The favourite to win stage 11 of the Tour de France is of course UAE Team Emirates’ Tadej Pogačar at around 9/4. But there are factors that give hope to riders and teams looking to put Pogačar under pressure. He’s lost a strong mountain domestique in George Bennett to Covid, and his wingman, Rafał Majka, is being allowed to race only because his positive result indicated a low and therefore non-contagious viral load.

Also, by his own admission, Pogačar is not a fan of either extreme heat or high altitude. So despite his dominant displays up to now, could we see a chink in his armour?

In Wout van Aert, Steven Kruijswijk, and Sepp Kuss, Jumbo-Visma have a strong mountain train to set up Primož Roglič and Jonas Vingegaard deep into the final climb. After his fall on stage 5, Roglič sits almost 3mins down on GC. This could give him some leeway to attack without being followed though he’s a dangerous man to allow back in the GC picture.

Vingegaard has looked strong and is the clear second favourite at a best price of 7/2 (cut from 4s). On Mont Ventoux, he was the only rider to gap Pogačar in the Tour last year. He’s a much improved rider now and these longer climbs suit him better than the punchy stuff we’ve had so far – he could push the favourite very close.

The Ineos pair of Geraint Thomas and Adam Yates have ridden an excellent Tour so far and both are well placed to challenge for the podium. Can we see them beating Pogačar and Vingegaard? It’s unlikely but not impossible. They’re both priced around the 40/1 mark.

Who else of the GC contenders might be in the mix? Team DSM’s Romain Bardet is going well but is suffering some discomfort following his crash on stage 8. There’s 50/1 about the Frenchman.

Movistar’s Enric Mas has again ridden a stealthy race that could see him near a podium spot. He looks short at 22/1 given he’s almost certainly playing for a place. Perhaps Nairo Quintana could roll back the years – he’s been cut since the markets opened to around 33/1. He may be less affected by the altitude, but a win looks a stretch.

As for the breakaway we need to look for pure climbers and one rider stands out. Groupama-FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot is sure to try for the break. So close on stage 9, he may also have one eye on the mountains jersey and there are plenty of points to mop up here.

His teammates Michael Storer and Valentin Madouas are also potential stage winners but so far have stayed by the side of David Gaudu. Should Gaudu fall out of GC contention, those two will be picks for mountain breakaways going forward.

Movistar’s Carlos Verona looked strong on stage 9 and a better-timed attack could’ve seen him win the stage. He picked up his first career win last month at the Critérium du Dauphiné on a stage that included the Col du Galibier. He’ll be one of the strongest should he make the break and at 33/1 is a decent each-way bet.

Israel-Premier Tech have leading fancies in Jakob Fuglsang and Michael Woods. Fuglsang has tried and failed to get into a number of breaks and Woods suffered a heavy crash on stage 9 so I’m not tempted on either of them.

We can expect polka dot jersey hopefuls Simon Geschke, Bob Jungels, and Pierre Latour to all try and get up the road. Of the three, Jungels probably has the best chance of taking the stage and is quite big at 80/1.

So more than likely a GC shootout between Pogačar and Vingegaard which should be a great watch, but a couple of breakaway options just in case.

Stage 11 Bets

2pts win Jonas Vingegaard @7/2

1pt win Thiabut Pinot @8/1

0.5pts each way (4 places) Carlos Verona @28/1

Posted 21.01 BST Tue 12th July 2022

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