Stage 10 – Pescara > Jesi (196km)

Profile

Stage 9 Result

1st Jai HINDLEY (33/1)

2nd Romain BARDET (16/1)

3rd Richard CARAPAZ (7/2F)

4th Mikel LANDA (7/1)

Stage 9 Bets

Romain Bardet 1pt each way (4 places) @16/1 – 2nd

Davide Formolo 1pt each way (4 places) @33/1

David de la Cruz 0.5pts each way (3 places) @70/1

Mattias Skjelmose Jensen 0.5pts each way (4 places) @250/1

Chapeau-meter

Another second place and that one hurt. However hard they tried, Bardet, Carapaz and Landa – the three strongest on the stage – couldn’t shake the group behind led by the dogged Almeida, perhaps not helped by a slight headwind. It was the fast-finishing Hindley who smartly took the final turn in the lead and got enough of a jump to deny Bardet by half a wheel. Of the other picks, Formolo did a great job helping Almeida when the Portuguese looked cooked a long way from home, De la Cruz’s teammate, Joe Dombrowski, was the one to get up the road and ultimately proved the strongest from the break – he might be one to keep onside later in the race, and Skjelmose Jensen was on duty for the impressive Juanpe López who held on to pink.

Stage 10 Preview

We’re over on the east coast of Italy as the riders go north from Pescara for a completely flat 100km before cutting inland where the terrain gets distinctly bumpier. As can be seen in the profile, it really is a stage of two halves and one that looks difficult to control with three fourth-category climbs and plenty of other unclassified ones offering up launchpads for attacks.

Some of these are real sharp double-digit rises too so you’ll need to be a punchy type to make the difference. The last attack point peaks with 9.5km to go and then it’s downhill before a final 1.5km uphill drag to the line.

Contenders

The parcours for this stage makes it tricky to predict how it will play out. The entirely flat start helps those teams that want to police the front and control the race. But that won’t be for the pure sprinters as the second half doesn’t favour them, and with a pan-flat stage awaiting on stage 11, they’re likely to conserve their energy.

Similar to the stage around Napoli, we’re looking at classics types for this one. But can enough of them make the break to ensure they don’t chase behind, or will they marshal a small break and catch them before the lumpy stuff later? That will depend on team strategy and how things play out on the road. 

We’re looking specifically at two teams to determine that – Alpecin-Fenix and Intermarché Wanty as this stage offers up a huge chance for Mathieu van der Poel and Biniam Girmay. They’ll be marking each other – either both go up the road or neither. Van der Poel is the more explosive and can make a difference on the climbs but, similar to Peter Sagan back in the day, suffers from being so good that nobody wants to work with him. This makes him vulnerable to counter attacks and riders slipping up the road as they did on stage 8. Girmay is marginally the faster sprinter, though the low-gradient drag to the line helps Van der Poel should they arrive together. Despite not finishing off the stage around Napoli on Saturday, he looked on decent form and it’s very easy to imagine him attacking far out, leaving everyone for dead and coming home solo. The prices available reflect that with Van der Poel the favourite at a best priced 10/3. If he’s in position at the halfway stage, he’ll be a lot shorter than that.

Another team in the same boat are EF Education for Magnus Cort Nielsen. He didn’t make the front group on stage 8 and his depleted team spent a good few kilometres trying to pull it back which was always going to be an impossible job given its strength. No doubt they’ll be more vigilant this time. If he’s in the right move, then this stage is good for the Dane and is around 14/1 to take the win. 

Quick-Step have a few options – Mauro Schmid looked a million dollars on stage 8 and was the one willing to work with Van der Poel. He also packs a useful sprint which could be handy come the finish. Unfortunately, the secret is out and all of the juicy prices are gone on the young Swiss who is now single-figure odds generally. It’s a stage that also suits Davide Ballerini, especially if a reduced group arrives together, but does he have the zip to stay ahead when the attacks start flying? I’m not so sure. Better suited to the higher gradients is Mauri Vansevenant. His unconventional but effective style certainly makes him easy to spot and is a decent price at 28/1. I fear Schmid, but Vansevenant is the value pick.

There are a couple of lively players for UAE Team Emirates in Alessandro Covi and Diego Ulissi. Both have threatened in this Giro and been active without quite coming through with a result. On that basis, we’ll give them the dodge. Similarly, AG2R’s Andrea Vendrame couldn’t live with the best when it kicked off on stage 8 and he could suffer a similar fate here.

With a few days before we tackle the high stuff again, will Ineos give anyone a day pass to go up the road? Two candidates stand out – Jhonatan Narváez and Ben Swift – and as they were for the Napoli stage are available at decent prices. As the faster sprinter, we’ll go in again with a small interest on Swift at 200/1.

Stage 10 Bets

Mathieu van der Poel 2pts win @10/3

Mauri Vansevenant 1pt each way (4 places) @28/1

Ben Swift 0.5pts each way (4 places) @200/1

Posted 21.06 BST Mon 16th May 2022

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available at Oddschecker