Stage 9 – Isernia > Blockhaus (191km)

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Stage 8 Result

1st Thomas DE GENDT (80/1)

2nd Davide GABBURO (300/1)

3rd Jorge ARCAS (300/1)

4th Harm VANHOUCKE (200/1)

Stage 8 Bets

Magnus Cort Nielsen 1pt win @14/1 

Davide Ballerini 1pt each way (3 places) @18/1 

Andrea Vendrame 1pt each way (4 places) @33/1

Natnael Tesfatsion 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1

Ben Swift 0.5pts each way (4 places) @200/1

Chapeau-meter

Another cracker as this Giro really hots up. Timing was everything as De Gendt and co counter-attacked a Van der Poel-led group, got 30secs and stayed away (just).Vendrame made the break but couldn’t hang on to the main players and finished 11th. EF failed to get Cort in the break, Ballerini and Tesfatsion had mates up the road and Swift, predictably following the news of Castroviejo’s injury, was on duty for Carapaz. Dodged a bullet with Schmid finishing 6th and looking a million dollars – a stage winner waiting to happen surely.

Stage 9 Preview

The phoney war we’ve had between general classification favourites for the first week of racing ends here with a stage that culminates on the feared Blockhaus climb – 13.6km at an average of 8.4% with a section touching 14% 5km from home. There’s no hiding place on a climb like that so we’re guaranteed time gaps and a shakedown in the GC standings before the second rest day.

Given the number of climbs before we get to Blockhaus, a strong breakaway is not without a chance but they’ll need a hefty amount of time at its foot to take the day. It’ll be an unpleasant start for many with three categorised climbs in the first 40km and we’re likely to see a sizeable group of talented climbers going clear.

Contenders

A stage with such a big climb at the end definitely tilts it towards a GC winner, but we’ll have a couple of breakaway savers just in case. We haven’t yet seen a dust-up between the favourites so there’s clearly an element of guessing – how are their legs? have teams underplayed the severity of injuries? is anyone sick? how strong is their mountain support?

The injury to Jonathan Castroviejo, who spent most of stage 8 recovering in the rear, is a blow to Ineos and their GC leader Richard Carapaz, but in no way a fatal one. He still has Richie Porte, Pavel Sivakov, Ben Tulett and Jhonatan Narváez as a very solid group of climbing domestiques. Carapaz is a short favourite for the whole race (around 11/10) and understandably has opened favourite for this too at a best price of 7/2. If he’s got the legs, Carapaz will want to put a marker down here and take control of the Giro. 

Simon Yates was on top form coming into the Giro, winning two stages of the Vuelta Asturias (a warm-up race that Carapaz himself won before his Giro triumph in 2019), but suffered that knock to his knee on stage 4. We don’t know how badly he’ll be affected by that but my hunch is not much. BikeExchange have played things well so far – keeping a relatively low profile and saving energy in contrast to the Giro Yates came so close to winning in 2018. 

Riding as well as ever and very ably supported by Thymen Arensman, DSM’s Romain Bardet must be considered a potential winner of this stage. His win in the Tour of the Alps last month was impressive but didn’t contain any stages quite as brutal as this one. Not that he hasn’t experienced something similar before – it would be no surprise to see the two-time podium finisher in the Tour de France with his arms in the air at the end. Purely on price, Bardet is the pick.

Bora-hansgrohe have cards to play with four riders within 3mins of Juan Pedro López’s lead – Lennard Kämna (38secs), Wilco Kelderman (1min 55secs), Jai Hindley (2mins 16secs) and Emanuel Buchmann (2mins 39secs). Most of Buchmann’s time loss is due to a crash on a technical corner in the stage 2 time trial so it doesn’t yet indicate how their team’s overall hierarchy will develop later in the race. It’ll be interesting to see how they decide to play this one. They’re all around the 33s-50s range. 

It’s assumed that Bahrain-Victorious’ Pello Bilbao will be working in the service of team leader Mikel Landa. Certainly the prices suggest that with Bilbao five times the price of his fellow Basque man. They also have the impressive young Colombian Santiago Buitrago sitting at 2mins 18secs which gives them options. 

If he isn’t kept back to help UAE Team Emirates leader João Almeida, then Davide Formolo is a great pick for the break. He sits just 7mins 25secs from López which is on the bubble of what would be allowed up the road. But on a start like this, control may be impossible.

David de la Cruz showed good form in the Tour of the Alps and was denied a stage win only by an inspired Thibaut Pinot. With Miguel Ángel López out of the race and Vincenzo Nibali a little behind on GC, Astana-Qazaqstan may decide to throw men up the road. Harold Tejada, who was in the break on stage 8, is also an option.

Of course, some teams may want to send riders up the road in order to help their leaders deeper into the race rather than with any hope or aspiration of winning the stage. Though probably in vain, Trek-Segafredo will do their utmost to hold on to pink and this tactic may be in their minds. If so, then Mattias Skjelmose Jensen is a good candidate. He looked strong in the break in stage 8 before being pulled back to help peg Guillaume Martin’s advantage. He’s better suited to a stage like this than the street circuit around Napoli, and though clearly a long shot to be playing for the win, at 250/1, it’s worth a nibble.

Stage 9 Bets

Romain Bardet 1pt each way (4 places) @16/1

Davide Formolo 1pt each way (4 places) @33/1

David de la Cruz 0.5pts each way (3 places) @70/1

Mattias Skjelmose Jensen 0.5pts each way (4 places) @250/1

Posted 20.50 BST Sat 14th May 2022

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available at Oddschecker