Stage 11 – Santarcangelo di Romagna > Reggio Emilia (203km)

Profile

Stage 10 Result

1st Biniam GIRMAY (5/1)

2nd Mathieu VAN DER POEL (10/3F)

3rd Vincenzo ALBANESE (28/1)

4th Wilco KELDERMAN (200/1)

Stage 10 Bets

Mathieu van der Poel 2pts win @10/3 – 2nd

Mauri Vansevenant 1pt each way (4 places) @28/1

Ben Swift 0.5pts each way (4 places) @200/1

Chapeau-meter

Second again, but can’t begrudge Girmay a deserved, historic win – the first black African to win a Grand Tour stage and one that should do a great deal to increase diversity within the sport. Van der Poel was friendless in the front group, paid for a number of failed attacks as well as an untimely mechanical, and came up just short. Vansevenant hovered near the front, as did Ballerini, but it was Schmid again who was the strongest of the Quick-Step boys. There were no licences handed out by Ineos, probably wisely as Carapaz had a tumble in the grass and then contested the final which got very selective.

Stage 11 Preview

It’s fair to say this one’s flat. There’s barely a bump in the road over the 203km route as the riders head inland from the Adriatic coast. The only way this doesn’t end in a bunch sprint is if the wind blows in the valley and creates echelons. 

All teams with sprinters or GC contenders will be wary of this, and of course some will actively gun for it if the conditions are right to potentially drop some rivals. The run-in is wide and flat but there are a couple of left-handers past the kilometre-to-go mark as well as plenty of road furniture to avoid which may complicate things a bit.

Contenders

We saw some strange tactics from Lotto Soudal on stage 10. They policed the break to ensure the numbers were kept low and helped peg it with Alpecin-Fenix and Intermarché-Wanty. This indicated that they were backing Caleb Ewan to overcome the climbs and finish off the sprint. That always looked a tough task on paper and sure enough Ewan was dropped pretty much as soon as the road went uphill.

But did Ewan cut the engines early to save himself for this stage or have his legs gone? I suspect a bit of both. He hasn’t had the best of luck this Giro and it hasn’t been improved by losing his leadout man Rüdiger Selig, who abandoned on the road to Blockhaus on stage 9. That said, they didn’t deploy a full train for the last sprint anyway and just dropped Ewan off on the wheel of Mark Cavendish a couple of kilometres out – a tactic that almost paid off. 

Cavendish himself has also lost his poisson pilote Michael Mørkøv to illness which is a big blow. There’s still plenty of power there with Mauro Schmid, Bert Van Lerberghe and Davide Ballerini but it’s not ideal to have to shuffle the pack and there’s no guarantee it’ll go smoothly. Both Ewan and Cavendish are around 3/1 for this but it’s difficult to back either with any confidence.  

So for the first sprint this Giro we have a favourite other than those two. Arnaud Démare is on a roll after his two wins and has the most well-drilled, confident leadout. He actually didn’t open favourite when the prices came out, but has since halved in price to around 2/1. He’d have been value at 4s, but 2s is skinny enough.

Already with a second and third place, Fernando Gaviria has clearly got the speed to challenge but things haven’t quite worked out for the Colombian. He ended up with a relegation on stage 6 for a dangerous move that could’ve ended very badly. It wouldn’t be the biggest shock in the world but there’s no way the 5/1 available is value.

Biniam Girmay will be chipper after his win and carries a heck of a lot of speed even on the flat finishes. But I’m not sure how he goes with one eye closed. Podium celebrations didn’t exactly go to plan and he got whacked in the eye with a Prosecco cork. Pictures of him leaving hospital with a big white patch over his eye put his participation in this stage in serious doubt. 

It’s difficult to see who else will get involved – Giacomo Nizzolo has been his consistent self without looking like a winner, the DSM pair of Ceel Bol and Alberto Dainese have done no better than 7th and Bahrain-Victorious’ Phil Bauhaus hasn’t broken the top five. If things get seriously selective due to crosswinds then Mathieu van der Poel may end up being the fastest one left, but at this stage that’s speculative. 

Démare is the most likely, but purely on price, let's give Ewan one last go. He’ll be desperate to get a win before leaving the race and starting his preparation for the Tour de France.

Stage 11 Bets

Caleb Ewan 1pt win @7/2

Posted 21.34 BST Tue 17th May 2022

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available at Oddschecker