Vuelta a España 2024
Stage 10 – Ponteareas > Baiona (160km)
Tue 27th Aug | KM0: 13:42 CET
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Where: Just south of Vigo in the northwestern province of Galicia.
Stage Type: Mountain, though probably medium mountain would be more accurate as it’s not the stiffest climbing test at this Vuelta.
Weather: After the oppressive heat of the south, the riders will be thankful for much cooler temperatures up in Galicia, still in the low 20˚Cs though.
Climbs: Starts with a second-category climb (15.4km at 4.2%) and ends with three more classified back-to-back ascents. The final one – the first-category Alto de Mougás (9.9km at 6%) – is toughest in the first half (6km at 8%) before flattening off to the line (4km at 4%).
Start: Up that second-category climb after 12km helping climbers make the day’s breakaway.
Finish: The Alto de Mougás peaks 20km from home and the fast descent ends with a little hillock which may even be decisive if a small group hits it together.
Stage suits: Climbers not in GC contention and riders looking to leapfrog back into it.
Breakaway chances: Very good. The final climbs don’t look difficult enough to cause GC riders any problems, so it’s unlikely a team will chase the day’s break for little or no reward time-wise.
What will happen?: A group including some strong climbers should get clear on the opening second-category climb. Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale will ride but in a controlled way and if no other team takes it up early, the day should end in a breakaway win.
Stage 10 Contenders
Primož Roglič (8/1) had a mini wobble on stage 9 and Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe may want to put on a show of strength after the rest day. But given the terrain it seems unlikely until we hit the last three back-to-back climbs by which point the break should be safe for the win.
Wout van Aert (9/1) will most likely go on the attack because that’s what he does. May need to anticipate the race to get ahead of the purer climbers in order to win though.
Marc Soler (18/1), Brandon McNulty (22/1), Jay Vine (22/1) and Isaac del Toro (25/1) are all good cards for UAE Team Emirates. Vine and especially Soler put in mighty rides to set up Adam Yates for his stage win with Soler especially looking lively this Vuelta – he should be rewarded with licence to go for the win here.
Del Toro, who prior to stage 9 was the highest ranked UAE man on GC, had an off-day and lost over 30mins. Whether that was the heat, an accumulation of a brutal week’s racing or some kind of sickness we don’t know, but if back on form, the Mexican has a great chance in this one.
Lennert Van Eetvelt (18/1) lost almost 4mins to O’Connor and co on stage 9 and may try to leapfrog his way back up the standings by getting in the break from where he’d be a favourite for the stage win.
Jhonatan Narváez (18/1) isn’t quite back to the form he showed at the Giro d’Italia but of course has had a fall. Ineos Grenadiers have not had a great Vuelta so far which puts you off somewhat.
Pelayo Sanchez (28/1) and Oier Lazkano (33/1) have both shown well in breakaways in recent stages and, at their best, the Movistar pair have the attributes to win.
Michael Woods (25/1) has had some bad luck this Vuelta and it was a surprise not to see him in the break on stage 9. He managed to stay with the group of favourites for a fair way before apparently crashing out of it off camera. George Bennett (150/1) suffered an untimely chain drop on stage 9 but battled back to finish only a few minutes behind the GC group. At almost 10mins down now, he may roll the dice and go for the break at an attractive price.
Matthew Riccitello (80/1) may have drifted out of the GC picture but is an excellent climber and yet another option for Israel Premier Tech is Marco Frigo (80/1) who’s excellent at anticipating a race and already has a second place to his name.
Patrick Konrad (40/1), Mathias Vacek (66/1) and Giulio Ciccone (33/1) are all great cards for Lidl-Trek. All three can climb and have a sprint, though Ciccone was taken out by a deer on stage 8 and so probably left alone.
Pablo Castrillo (100/1) has been very impressive from breaks and no doubt will be moving to a World Tour team next year. A big result at this Vuelta can’t be ruled out at triple-figure odds.
Torstein Træn (150/1) stayed with the Yates group for a long way into stage 9 showing his climbing legs are very good. Won earlier in the year from a break in the Tour de Suisse.
Darren Rafferty (200/1) put in a great shift for Richard Carapaz on stage 9. The young Irish champion is climbing very well and could get his own chance here.
Stage 10 Bets
Although they struggled on Sunday, Lennert Van Eetvelt and Isaac del Toro are excellent cover for both scenarios – break or GC win – as they should be able to stay with the best on these moderate climbs and have good sprints, so it makes sense to include them in the pot.
However, it looks like a day for the break, so let’s have a few others going for us at decent prices.
Lennert Van Eetvelt 2pts each way (5 places) @18/1
Isaac del Toro 1pt each way (5 places) @25/1
Patrick Konrad 1pt each way (5 places) @40/1
Pablo Castrillo 0.5pts each way (5 places) @100/1
George Bennett 0.5pts each way (5 places) @150/1
Torstein Træn 0.5pts each way (5 places) @150/1
Posted 20:54 BST Mon 26th Aug 2024
Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
Stage 10 Result
1st Wout van Aert (9/1)
2nd Quentin Pacher (100/1)
3rd Marc Soler (18/1)
4th William Lecerf (150/1)
5th Juri Hollmann (250/1)
[Vuelta a España stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
