Vuelta a España 2024
Stage 9 – Motril > Granada (178km)
Sun 25th Aug | KM0: 12:49 CET
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Stage 9 Preview
Where: Starting on the Mediterranean coast east of Málaga, they go up into the Sierra Nevada mountains and end in Granada.
Stage Type: Mountain.
Weather: Still in the 30˚Cs but for the first time a chance of rain in the afternoon potentially making the descents tricky.
Climbs: The first-category Puerto de El Purche (8.9km at 7.6%) is tackled first which, but for a downhill section near the top, would be 7km at 9.5%, before a double ascent of the first-category Alto de Hazallanas (7.1km at 9.5%) whose first 5km average over 10% and where we should see plenty of action.
Start: A number of unclassified rises which should allow climbers to get into the break, however, Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale may have their hands full stopping rival teams putting riders up there too. Shame we won’t see live TV coverage of it.
Finish: The second ascent of Alto de Hazallanas peaks with 23km to go before a relatively untechnical, fast descent.
Stage suits: GC favourites and GC-level climbers out of contention.
Breakaway chances: 50/50. We’re expecting a hard pace behind to put pressure on Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale which could doom the break. However, there are so many quality climbers now out of GC contention it could be a stacked group ahead and unless it kicks off amongst the GC men on the penultimate climb, they may have enough time to take the day.
What will happen?: In the balance this one. A decent-sized group including some excellent climbers outside of GC contention should make up the breakaway. Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe will drive hard on the climbs to try to isolate Ben O’Connor though unless they have riders up the road risk running out of men themselves. An early attack would be good for the viewer, but they may wait till later by which time the break could have an unassailable lead. A win for the GC favourites is the most likely outcome, but only just.
Stage 9 Contenders
Primož Roglič (6/4; 2.50) added to his ridiculous tally of Vuelta stage wins in Cazorla (14 and counting) without needing to ask his team to do a bit of work all day – blessed. They’ll work hard here though to put the hurt on Ben O’Connor again and narrow his lead in the standings. The final descent could get complicated with some late attacks, otherwise win number 15 looks likely.
Enric Mas (13/2; 7.5) looked comfortable on Roglič’s wheel up the final climb and appears to be back to his best level. It would be great to see him go on the offensive for once up the final climb – unlikely, but we’ll see.
Sepp Kuss (10/1) went down behind Aleksandr Vlasov at the bottom of the final climb and lost another minute on Roglič. Is still a potential podium finisher though and is suited by these longer climbs.
Mikel Landa (12/1) has held his Tour de France form very well but so far has struggled to hang on to Roglič.
Adam Yates (25/1) and João Almeida (66/1) both now sit over 9mins down on GC which is a bit of a disaster for the co-leaders of UAE Team Emirates, by most recognised as the strongest team in the race. Like many, Yates has apparently suffered in the extreme heat and also crashed on stage 6 but no doubt will get into top form at some point and then will be a breakaway stage winner in waiting.
Almeida was struggling from a fair way out on stage 8 and it was reported he had Covid, which is hugely disappointing. Are they far enough behind on GC to start stage hunting? Or maybe they’ll support the highest UAE man on GC now, down in 17th, the 20-year-old Mexican Isaac del Toro (33/1).
Antonio Tiberi (33/1) is back in the white jersey and looking in excellent form. Can sprint a bit so should he hang on to the front has a chance of the win.
Lennart Van Eetvelt (33/1) was also caught behind the late crash but lost only 29secs to Roglič. Is impressing hugely – how far can the young Belgian go in this Vuelta? His biggest test yet awaits.
Mattias Skjelmose (50/1) didn’t get too disheartened by his time loss on the tricky stage 4 finish and was much closer to the action on stage 8. Should be right in the mix again and has a fast finish if it comes to that.
Michael Woods (40/1) apparently fancied his chances ahead of stage 8 (inspired by being the main bet selection on these pages no doubt) but dear oh dear! Israel Premier Tech rode all day only for Woods to get caught up in the crash on the final climb – the second time misfortune has struck at the crucial moment meaning we still don’t really have a measure of his form. He’ll surely go for the break here, perhaps with teammate Matthew Riccitello (40/1). Kudos to IPT for giving it a crack though.
Carlos Rodríguez (50/1) is much better suited to these longer climbers rather than the short, punchy ones we’ve had so far. An excellent descender, he could be in the mix at a big price at the end.
Max Poole (66/1) is another GC-level rider who finds himself well down on GC which should give him freedom to get up the road. Came in on great form so would be good to see if he can fully recover from his crash and show us what he can do.
Stage 9 Bets
This could go either way.
We’ve got to go in again with Michael Woods – he should be in the break which may stay away and then we’ll see if he has the legs.
With their GC hopes in tatters, UAE Team Emirates are sure to have at least one man up the road. Let’s hope Adam Yates isn’t marked out of the early moves and he can find his true level.
In the GC group, both Antonio Tiberi and Lennert Van Eetvelt could stay close to the front and contest the sprint. Both are decently priced.
A very big day this with no hiding place – one not to miss.
Michael Woods 1pt each way (4 places) @40/1
Adam Yates 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1 - 1st
Lennert Van Eetvelt 1pt each way (4 places) @25/1
Antonio Tiberi 1pt each way (4 places) @33/1
Posted 22:36 BST Sat 24th Aug 2024
Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
Stage 9 Result
1st Adam Yates (22/1)
2nd Richard Carapaz (22/1)
3rd Ben O’Connor (80/1)
4th Mikel Landa (14/1)
[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
