Vuelta a España 2024
Stage 11 – Campus Tecnológico Cortizo. Padrón > Campus Tecnológico Cortizo. Padrón (166km)
Wed 28th Aug | KM0: 13:44 CET
Profile
Stage 11 Preview
Where: A looping circuit just outside Santiago de Compostela in Galicia.
Stage Type: Medium mountain.
Weather: Mid 20˚Cs with a small chance of rain in the late afternoon.
Climbs: Four evenly-spaced classified climbs with the toughest – the second-category Puerto Aguasantas (5.7km at 6.1%) – tackled twice.
Start: A couple of unclassified rises before the third-category Puerto San Xusto (10.2km at 4.2%) 30km in where the break should go.
Finish: The steep third-category Puerto Cruxeiras (2.9km at 8.9%) peaks just 8km from home so should have a big say in who wins the stage.
Stage suits: Puncheurs and breakaway specialists.
Breakaway chances: Excellent. Given the profile, it’s unlikely any team will want to control all day so, assuming no GC threats get up the road, it should be left for the breakaway.
What will happen?: As is often the case, with everyone knowing that the breakaway has a great chance of winning, it may take a long time to actually go. Once settled though, attacks will fly at the bottom of each ascent of the Puerto Aguasantas where the gradients are stiffest and a whittling down process will begin. The final climb is the perfect launchpad for a race winning move. There should still be skirmishes between the GC players late on but the day ought to end in a breakaway win.
Stage 11 Contenders
Wout Van Aert (6/1) won stage 10 and may be hungry for more. It was a pretty big day out, however, so may take a day off. Normal rules don’t apply to Wout though.
Jhonatan Narváez (8/1) ‘won’ the sprint from the favourite’s bunch and was involved in early breakaway skirmishes (granted alongside just about everyone) which may indicate a return to form. Perfect profile for him if he is but price is short.
Israel Premier Tech aren’t quite catching the right moves at the moment but they have options in Michael Woods (16/1), Marco Frigo (50/1), Dylan Teuns (50/1), George Bennett (80/1) and Matthew Riccitello (125/1). Of these, Woods and Teuns seem best suited to this profile though the latter has struggled so far.
UAE Team Emirates are sure to throw men forward again – Isaac del Toro (25/1), Brandon McNulty (20/1), Jay Vine (28/1) and Marc Soler (33/1) are all potential stage winners with Del Toro and McNulty making the most appeal on this parcours.
Harold Tejada (25/1) already has two top 10s in this Vuelta. Would probably prefer a bigger climbing test.
Eddie Dunbar (40/1) was in an early doomed break on stage 10 so he’ll no doubt try again. Mauro Schmid (40/1) was also off the front early on stage 10. These shorter, punchy climbers are more to his liking and is perhaps a better card for Jayco AlUla.
Oier Lazkano (40/1) and Pelayo Sánchez (40/1) don’t appear to be at their very best but are drifting to backable prices. Sánchez rolled in last on stage 10 – suffering or saving for this?
Stefan Küng (66/1) has been climbing and sprinting better than ever and is very tempting at the price.
Mathias Vacek (80/1) and Patrick Konrad (100/1) are good cards for Lidl-Trek with the parcours probably favouring Vacek.
Stage 11 Bets
As always, luck will be needed to catch the right move so we need to go in with plenty of options.
Michael Woods 1pt each way (5 places) @16/1
Brandon McNulty 1pt each way (5 places) @16/1
Mauro Schmid 0.5pts each way (5 places) @40/1
Stefan Küng 0.5pts each way (5 places) @66/1
Mathias Vacek 0.5pts each way (5 places) @80/1
Posted 22:42 BST Tue 27th Aug 2024
Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
Stage 11 Result
1st Eddie Dunbar (40/1)
2nd Quinten Hermans (40/1)
3rd Max Poole (125/1)
4th Jhonatan Narváez (8/1)
5th Urko Berrade (275/1)
[Vuelta a España stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
