Tour de France 2022

Stage 12 – Briançon > Alpe d’Huez (165.1km)

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Stage 11 Result

1st Jonas Vingegaard (7/2)

2nd Nairo Quintana (33/1)

3rd Romain Bardet (50/1)

4th Geraint Thomas (40/1)

Stage 11 Bets

2pts win Jonas Vingegaard @7/2 – 1st

1pt win Thiabut Pinot @8/1

0.5pts each way (4 places) Carlos Verona @28/1

What a stage that was. Now with more than 2mins advantage on GC, Jumbo-Visma and Jonas Vingegaard are in a strong position to control this all the way to Paris. Neither Pinot or Verona made the break, not that it would’ve mattered. They’ve got a better chance on the uphill start to stage 12.

Watch highlights of a dramatic stage here

Stage 12 Preview

The queen stage on Bastille Day, but it’ll have to go some to match the epic battle we saw on stage 11. It’s straight up from the gun for the first of three hors catégorie climbs – the Col du Galibier (23km at 5.1%) – this time from the gentler side compared to what they tackled 24 hours earlier.

Then it’s the Col de la Croix de Fer (29km at 5.2%) which is taken in three steps, the second of which is the hardest (6km at 8.8%). And finally the iconic summit finish up Alpe d’Huez (13.8km at 8.1%). It’s likely to be more controlled than stage 11, but it’ll be a special day whatever happens.

Stage 12 Contenders

Jumbo-Visma blew things up on stage 11. They now have the yellow jersey and control of the race. The disparity in team strength between them and UAE Team Emirates was laid bare as Tadej Pogačar was left exposed to multiple attacks from Primož Roglič and Jonas Vingegaard.

With over 2mins lead, Vingegaard can now afford to ride defensively, and he has the team to follow and mark attacks. It’s going to be difficult for Pogačar to get back into this but no doubt he’ll try.

Such a wild, explosive day will have left marks on many riders and that can give Pogačar hope – will Vingegaard pay for his efforts? Or will Jumbo-Visma sense that this is the moment to put the hammer down again and extend Vingegaard’s lead?

Nairo Quintana, Romain Bardet and Geraint Thomas all showed really well on stage 11 and are a bit shorter in price now for this. It’s not impossible that one of them sneaks away to take the stage – Bardet, being the most explosive, and French, is the most likely and is available at 28/1.

Given the race situation, this stage is much more in play for the breakaway than stage 11. We’re straight up onto the Col du Galibier which is a great chance for climbers with legs to form a strong group. Jumbo-Visma will have to police it well and make sure no GC threats get up the road. If they do, that could doom the rest of the riders in the group.

We’re unlikely to see the race explode as early as it did on stage 11 and that should mean a break has a good chance of taking the day.

Thibaut Pinot didn’t seem that interested in getting in the break on stage 11, but he’ll surely have a go here. A Frenchman winning on Alpe d’Huez on Bastille Day would be the dream scenario, and even better if it was Pinot. Unfortunately, the bookies are thinking the same, and a best price of only 9/2 is available. Still, I think he must be in the pot.

As I’ve said before, Pinot’s teammates Valentin Madouas and Michael Storer would also be big players from a break but appear to be sticking with David Gaudu. In fact they, along with Wout van Aert, pretty much saved Gaudu’s podium hopes on stage 11.

It wasn’t the same story for Movistar’s Enric Mas who lost over 8mins on GC. He may try to get in the morning break but it’s more likely that licence will be given to his teammates, notably Carlos Verona whose only pro win came last month in the Critérium du Dauphiné on a mountain stage that covered an almost identical route to stage 12 – albeit without the final ascent of Alpe d’Huez.

Bahrain-Victorious’ Damiano Caruso shipped over half an hour on stage 12. That may have been with an eye on chasing stages or his legs could’ve dropped off. Another who did the same but is available at a much bigger price is EF Education-Easypost’s Neilson Powless. He’s been super impressive but has been a marked man since making the break on stage 5. That won’t be the case anymore and is great value at 66/1.

Trek-Segafredo have Bauke Mollema and Giulio Ciccone who at their best would be fancying this but we’ve seen nothing to suggest that’s the case. Ditto for the Israel-Premier Tech pair of Jakob Fuglsang and Michael Woods.

We’re almost certain to see Simon Geschke and Pierre Latour in the break as they chase mountains points but it would be a surprise to see either winning.

This one’s 50/50 for me – so there’s a GC option and three strong climbers for the break. Allez!

Stage 12 Bets

1pt each way (4 places) Romain Bardet @28/1

2pts win Thibaut Pinot @9/2

1pt each way (4 places) Carlos Verona @33/1

0.5pts each way (4 places) Neilson Powless @66/1

Posted 1954 BST Wed 13th July 2022

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