Giro d’Italia 2023

Stage 12 – Bra > Rivoli (179km)

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Stage 11 Result

1st Pascal Ackermann (11/1)

2nd Jonathan Milan (4/1)

3rd Mark Cavendish (14/1)

Stage 11 Bets

Mads Pedersen 2pts win @5/2 – 4th

Pedersen had a good position out of the final turn but was missing some zip in his legs and faded disappointingly into fourth. Maybe he launched too early but a tip-top Pedersen would’ve ridden away clear. The standout sprint was from Milan who came from way back to almost pip Ackermann on the line. The next likely sprint finish isn’t until stage 17.

Stage 12 Preview

Stage 12 sees the riders continue north through the Piedmont region to Rivoli, just outside Turin, before a 54km circuit which takes in the second-category Colle Braida climb. The hilly start and end to the stage make it perfect for a breakaway win as neither GC or sprint teams have anything to be gained from chasing.

So there should be a big fight to make the break but if it doesn’t go before they crest the third-category climb 36km in, it could take a while as it’s flat valley roads for quite a while after. Colle Braida is a solid climb of 9.8km at 7.1% with a section touching 12%, so whoever is in the break will need their climbing legs installed and fully operational if they’re to win the day.

Stage 12 Contenders

We could see a big chunk of riders off the front and assuming no GC threat is amongst them, they’ll be allowed to contest the win. But if the break doesn’t form on the first climb, then it could become even more of a lottery than usual as to who gets that opportunity.  

EF Education-Easypost’s Ben Healy has to be a leading player. If he can reproduce anything like the form he showed in his win on stage 8, then he’ll be a difficult man to beat and is rightly installed as the favourite at a best price of 5/1. But is the price value? There’s no guarantee that any rider will make a breakaway as race dynamics can be complex, perhaps the longer climb isn’t ideal for his punchier attributes, and he’ll be more of a marked man after his performance the other day. But if he has the same legs, it probably won’t matter and Healy will take another win.

Team tactics could come into play for EF as they have others with a perfect profile for this stage. Magnus Cort is clearly coming into better form but that was a very big day out for his stage win and he may need a couple more days to recover. Alberto Bettiol is another who’s building his form nicely and assuming he’s not too banged up after his collision with a race official on stage 10, will definitely be looking to get forward. Bettiol is currently twice the price of Cort – 33/1 to the Dane’s 16s.

UAE Team Emirates’ Brandon McNulty has been hunting breakaways since the start of the Giro but so far has been unsuccessful partly due to his threat as a GC rider. Now over 50mins down, that’s no longer the case and he’d be a big favourite to make a difference on that final climb should he be in the front group. McNulty is a close second favourite, behind Healy, at 7/1.

As a good climber with a fast sprint, McNulty’s teammate Alessandro Covi would ordinarily be a great pick but he was first to go down in the crash which ended Tao Goeghegan Hart’s Giro and got pretty badly beaten up himself, though did provide pink jersey wearer Geraint Thomas with a fortunate, soft landing.

And another UAE man at over 12mins down, Jay Vine, must also now be considered a breakaway threat. But will GC teams be happy to let him back near the top 10? It could provide Almeida with a strategic card to play in the mountains. Plus he got banged up in the crash on the wet descent of stage 10 – he’ll still be feeling the affects of that and will probably wait till later in the race before aiming for a stage win.

Bora-Hansgrohe’s Patrick Konrad is another who’s on the bubble at 8mins 43secs off GC. Will he be allowed up the road? He’s likely to try and if he does manage to infiltrate the break will be one of the favourites given his current climbing form and fast finish.

Jayco AlUla have a big player in Michael Matthews. They may even try to control a break to set up the Aussie on the final climb, but more likely they’ll try to get him up the road with some teammates. Alessandro De Marchi clearly has amazing legs but admitted he’d need a few days to recover after his stage 10 exploits. Filippo Zana would be useful on the final climb and could even attack whilst Matthews sits in. Either way, Jayco are certain to be involved somewhere.

Plenty will be interested in this and we could see a real mix of riders in the break – but let’s keep onside with those that have the form to win and (as far as we know) have managed to avoid any major spills.

Stage 12 Bets

Ben Healy 2pts win @5/1

Patrick Konrad 1pt each way (3 places) @17/1

Michael Matthews 1pt each way (4 places) @20/1

Posted 22.01 BST 17th May 2023

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Giro d’Italia at Oddschecker