Vuelta a España 2024
Stage 12 – Ourense Termal > Estación de Montaña de Manzaneda (137km)
Thu 29th Aug | KM0: 14:19 CET
Profile
Stage 12 Preview
Where: Still in Galicia in northwestern Spain travelling east.
Stage Type: Officially hilly but almost 3,500m of altitude gain and ending with a first-category climb.
Weather: Mid to high 20˚Cs with a chance of rain in the late afternoon.
Climbs: Just the one classified climb – the summit finish up the first-category Estación de Montaña de Manzaneda (15.4km at 4.7%).
Start: A significant unclassified lump after 15km can help the break form.
Finish: The Estación de Montaña de Manzaneda is long but has relatively shallow gradients. The steepest section is near the top with the final 2km averaging around 7.5%.
Stage suits: The final climb looks to favour power climbers rather than flyweights but at this point in the race, any puncheur, rouleur or baroudeur with legs in the breakaway also has a chance. If it comes back together, GC players with a sprint will be favoured.
Breakaway chances: 50/50. Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe may want to make this as hard as possible to test Ben O’Connor again, in which case it should end in a GC win. The short length of the stage (just 137km) also tilts it in favour of the GC men as the break may run out of road to build up a lead. However, the parcours lends itself to a big group getting away and the final climb isn’t horrendous which will help whoever’s in front defend their lead.
What will happen?: Tricky one this. Another big fight for the break which, assuming there are no GC threats up the road, will be allowed to contest the final. Or, Red Bull will make it full gas all day, dooming the breakaway and setting up a GC fight for the stage. This one’s in the balance.
Stage 12 Contenders
Primož Roglič (9/2) is the obvious favourite given his speedy finish should Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe bring it all back together. Short in price though considering the break has a decent chance of staying away.
Mattias Skjelmose (25/1) finished with Roglič on stage 11 indicating a return to form after suffering in the heat. Has a fast finish which puts him in the frame for the win.
For the breakaway:
Wout Van Aert (9/1) kept a lowish profile on stage 11 which probably means he fancies this and the profile looks perfect for him.
UAE Team Emirates have Jay Vine (16/1), Marc Soler (25/1) and Brandon McNulty (33/1) as their best cards. Like Van Aert, Soler wasn’t involved on stage 11 so might fancy a rematch. McNulty finally made the break but disappointed on the final climb and then was leant upon to do the chasing.
Having missed a lot of the breaks in recent stages, Israel Premier Tech had just about everyone up there on stage 11. It meant they had to do all the work and Marco Frigo (66/1) put in a fantastic shift. He should be given his own chance here. And can we go in yet again with Michael Woods (33/1)? He’s been frustrating to follow but guaranteed to win if left out.
Stage 11 winner Eddie Dunbar (33/1) and Filippo Zana (100/1) may fancy getting in the break again for Jayco AlUla though Mauro Schmid (100/1) may be better suited to the up and down parcours at a good price.
Max Poole (33/1) finished an excellent third on stage 11 and it could’ve been better having gone over the final climb in the front group. Clearly finding his form and this is another excellent chance for the young Brit.
Oier Lazkano (50/1) and Einer Rubio (40/1) have both been strangely quiet for Movistar but are a big price if they find some form.
Stefan Küng (80/1) is in excellent climbing form, is clearly chasing breakaways and, although a win looks a stretch, may be difficult to shake off.
Pablo Castrillo (150/1) was the first man on the attack on stage 11. Should be giving it another go here.
Stage 12 Bets
Despite the hockey-stick profile, we might get a strange mix of riders coming to the line in this one as it has a classics look to it for most of the day and the final climb doesn’t look to favour pure climbers. A GC saver is definitely required too as this one’s in the balance.
Mattias Skjelmose 1pt each way (4 places) @25/1
Michael Woods 1pt each way (5 places) @33/1
Max Poole 1pt each way (5 places) @40/1 – 2nd
Stefan Küng 0.5pts each way (5 places) @66/1
Mauro Schmid 0.5pts each way (5 places) @100/1 – 4th
Pablo Castrillo 0.5pts each way (5 places) @150/1 – 1st
Posted 21:46 BST Wed 28th Aug 2024
Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
Stage 12 Result
1st Pablo Castrillo (150/1)
2nd Max Poole (40/1)
3rd Marc Soler (25/1)
4th Mauro Schmid (100/1)
5th Jhonatan Narváez (66/1)
[Vuelta a España stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
