Tour de France 2023

Stage 12 – Roanne > Belleville-en-Beaujolais (168.5km)

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Stage 11 Result

1st Jasper Philipsen (11/10F)

2nd Dylan Groenewegen (7/1)

3rd Phil Bauhaus (16/1)

Stage 11 Bets

Wout van Aert 0.5pts each way @10/1

Van Aert went after Philipsen’s wheel but got squeezed then boxed in and, unwilling to risk everything with so many important stages still to go, eased off rather than try to muscle his way through. Frustrating as he could’ve gone close with a clear run. Let’s move on.

Stage 12 Preview

A breakaway day. Surely. Five categorized climbs that are too hard for the sprinters but not hard enough for the GC men, should see a big fight for the break and, when it finally settles, isn’t seen again. It could be another crazy start – straight up from the gun to an unclassified rise and then back-to-back third-category tests within the first 40km.

The decisive climb will almost certainly be the second-category Col de la Croix Rosier (5.3km at 7.6%) which crests 28km from home before a stepped descent to the finish in Belleville-en-Beaujolais. Should it come to some kind of sprint between whoever’s left, there’s a small rise for about a kilometre up to the flamme rouge just to hurt the riders’ legs some more, before a 90 degree right-hander and a flat run-in.

Stage 12 Contenders

This is tougher on paper than stage 10 with longer, steeper climbs which tilts the balance in favour of GC-quality riders and other excellent climbers. The uphill start self-selects the better climbers too, so we should see a number of them in the day’s breakaway.

Lidl-Trek’s Mattias Skjelmose was the favourite in-running to win stage 10 having made the front group but suffered in the extreme heat and ran out of legs. He should try again here and is fancied at 14/1 to get the win this time. His teammate, Giulio Ciccone, could pick up some useful KOM points and is 20/1 to take the stage victory as well, but has he maintained the high level he came in to the Tour with? Both have a very good sprint on them, which will probably be needed.

Movistar’s Matteo Jorgenson said this stage is the one that suits him best and will definitely try to get up the road, but has he fully recovered physically and mentally from the heartbreak on the Puy de Dôme? Jorgensen said he’s not in the shape he showed in the spring, but he could still go close and is a 33/1 shot. At slightly shorter odds is his teammate, Ruben Guerreiro, who rode into an excellent fourth (second from the break) on stage 6. It’s probably about time the Portuguese added to his single Grand Tour victory three years ago and this is a big chance to do so.

Things just aren’t falling for stage favourite Wout van Aert, surprisingly fluffing his lines in the last two sprint opportunities. But there’s time yet for him to turn it round – 9/1 is short enough though.

Might Tom Pidcock try to sneak up the road? At 5mins 26secs off GC you’d think he’d be brought back, but the start is good for him and, like stage 10, could get chaotic. Ineos Grenadiers will try to have some representation – Michał Kwiatkowski, Omar Fraile, Jonathan Castroviego, or even former Tour winner Egan Bernal are all options.

The GC isn’t going that well for Groupama FDJ with David Gaudu 6mins down and they may be regretting leaving sprinter Arnaud Démare at home. They have good options here in French champion Valentin Madouas and Thibaut Pinot, both around 28/1.

Matej Mohorič is climbing very well, taking third on the Puy de Dôme, was active in moves for the break on stage 10 and of course is an excellent descender. Unfortunately, others know this too and the Slovenian has been cut to just 12/1 for the win. Bahrain-Victorious have other options in Fred Wright at 50s, though he’s struggling to hit the right moves at the moment, and maybe even Mikel Landa, who’s been largely invisible and has slowly dropped out of GC contention.

Similarly invisible has been EF Education-EasyPost’s Magnus Cort but this stage is perfect for him. If in the break, Cort would be very dangerous and it would be no surprise to see him take the win but, considering what we’ve seen so far, 28/1 is unbackable.

Ben O’Connor still has over 11mins on GC and could be looking to leapfrog into the top 10. He looks big at 50/1, however, a solo win on this terrain seems unlikely and O’Connor is likely to find others faster on the line. Felix Gall, at slightly shorter odds, appears content to test himself with the GC men and is matching up very well, sitting in 15th. He too might fancy a jump into the top 10 and definitely has the form to challenge – the long descent at the end, however, is not in his favour.

Georg Zimmermann’s big-gear grind made him look vulnerable on the climbs, but he never really looked troubled on stage 10 whilst ‘better’ climbers were distanced. Had he perhaps trusted his sprint a bit more or gone for home a little later than the kilometre marker then we could’ve landed a 125/1 winner. That price has gone – he’s now closer to 40s, but it’s still tempting to keep the Intermarché man onside.

Another who suffered in the extreme heat of Vulcania having gone a little deep was Romain Bardet. But the word from the DSM-Firmenich team was that his legs were good. At almost 7mins off GC, he has enough rope to try for the break. How about a classic Bardet attack over the final climb and daredevil descent? At 50s, he’s worth a shot.

Israel Premier-Tech’s Krists Neilands had ridiculous legs on stage 10 and really should’ve won. If he can reproduce that form then he has a great chance at 28/1 – that effort would’ve left a mark though.

Finally, two previous stage picks for whom this stage looks perfect – Maxim Van Gils and Tobias Johannessen. Both excellent climbers with a bit a sprint, but can they make the break?

Plenty in with a chance, but here’s the selection box:

Stage 12 Bets

Mattias Skjelmose 1pt each way (5 places) @14/1

Tobias Johannessen 1pt each way (5 places) @18/1

Thibaut Pinot 0.5pts each way (5 places) @28/1

Romain Bardet 0.5pts each way (5 places) @50/1

Maxim Van Gils 0.5pts each way (5 places) @50/1

Posted 20:35 BST 12th July 2023

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[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

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