Vuelta a España 2022

Stage 12 – Salobreña > Peñas Blancas. Estepona (192.7km)

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Stage 11 Result

1st Kaden Groves (7/1)

2nd Danny van Poppel (12/1)

3rd Tim Merlier (13/8F)

Stage 11 Bets

1pt each way (3 places) Danny van Poppel @12/1 – 2nd

Van Poppel got blocked a bit on the narrow run-in but managed to slalom his way up for second. With a clear run it could’ve been one better but fair play to BikeExchange who bounced back well after losing their GC leader Simon Yates before the stage.

Stage 12 Preview

The stage 12 route takes us along the Costa del Sol – through Málaga and Marbella – before moving inland for a summit finish on the first-category Peñas Blancas climb. It’s long at 19km though there’s a small downhill section 3km in before it kicks up again. The average gradient of 6.7% suggests it’s one for the power climbers rather than the mountain goats.

There are some ups and downs in the first 30km where the break has a good chance to form. If not, the flat run along the coast is not ideal, especially for the lighter climbers who may need to hitch a ride with a stronger rouleur teammate. Whether the break will contest the stage win is another question.

Stage 12 Contenders

A hockey-stick profile tends to tip the balance towards a GC win but things aren’t as clear cut here. Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl have been inclined to allow breaks to contest the win in order to sweep up all of the bonus seconds and are probably even less keen to drive a hard pace having suffered the huge blow of losing Julian Alaphilippe to a dislocated shoulder on stage 11.

It’ll be interesting to see who takes it to Quick-Step in an effort to expose any weaknesses as many teams, including Jumbo-Visma and Ineos Grenadiers, are depleted in numbers themselves. These longer climbs are thought to be a potential weakness of Remco Evenepoel but barring a dramatic loss in form it’s difficult to see him shipping a huge amount on this climb with its relatively shallow gradients.   

Now 2mins 41secs behind the Belgian, his closest rival Primož Roglič showed well in the time trial and we can assume he’s not suffering from any legacy back pain from his Tour injuries. Neutrals will be hoping that his form is on the upturn and that the time gap can be narrowed over the next week. Stage 12 could give us another clue as to which way it’s going to go.

Movistar’s Enric Mas has had an excellent Vuelta so far and ran a great TT, helped apparently by some new helmet tech, but as a betting prospect never appeals given the scarcity of his wins.  

Things have fallen apart somewhat for Ineos with Pavel Sivakov joining the ever-growing list of Covid positive departures and Tao Geoghegan Hart shipping time on stage 9 after being caught up in a crash. That has left the Spanish youngster Carlos Rodríguez, currently lying in fourth, as their main GC hope. Stage 12 starts near his hometown of Almuñecar which no doubt will be extra motivation for a good performance. Ineos’ leader coming into the race, Richard Carapaz, is still in the race, apparently, but is now almost 20mins back – don’t be surprised to see him up the road but is unbackable given how little he has shown.

It's turning into a good Vuelta for Spain with stage wins from Marc Soler and Jésus Herrada, Mas and Rodríguez third and fourth overall, and sitting in fifth 19-year-old Juan Ayuso. How deep can he go into the race? He was apparently under the weather before the stage 10 TT but still put in a decent effort, albeit over 2mins slower than Evenepoel. Still, it’s probably best to stay away if someone’s had the sniffles.

These shallower gradients could make it a good stage for Ayuso’s UAE Emirates teammate Joäo Almeida. His recent win at the Vuelta a Burgos was remarkable as he was dropped a fair way from home before chugging back up to the front and winning the sprint. It’s bizarre that a rider has so much explosivity in a sprint and yet none when climbing, but we can’t rule out something similar here and is a big price at around 80/1.

Staying with UAE, Slovenian Jan Polanc appears to be riding very strongly, and if relieved from domestique duties could be one of the strongest from a breakaway.

Only five riders are within 5mins of Evenepoel on GC which may give those below some rope to attack without being chased down. So a late attack, as well as the breakaway could also be challenging for stage honours. Astana’s Miguel Ángel López is one such candidate and he appears to be riding into form with a good showing on stage 9 as well as an excellent time trial.

As for the breakaway, it’s difficult to look past Alpecin-Decueninck’s Jay Vine who’s been installed as the 9/2 favourite for the stage with most bookmakers. Few appear to be able to match him going uphill and he’d be a big player again in the break, but is short considering the different ways this could play out.

I’d much rather go in again with EF Education-Easypost’s Mark Padun. He achieved a particularly high finish on stage 9, beating some GC contenders, showing his legs are good, and of course has gone close already from a break on stage 6. He ought to be looking to get up the road and could be the strongest one up there.

Similarly, Rein Taaramäe finished strongly to finish third on stage 8 and won a stage with a similar profile at last year’s Vuelta. Following Louis Meintjes’ success on stage 9, the Estonian has a great chance to give Intermarché their second win in just a few days.

Finally, the Bahrain Victorious pair of Santiago Buitrago and Gino Mäder are good candidates to get forward. We forget that Mäder finished fifth overall at last year’s Vuelta in a breakthrough year which saw him take a Grand Tour win at the Giro d’Italia.

You could make a decent case for another 30 or so riders but let’s go in with a GC player at decent odds and a few stage hunters who’ve shown to have decent legs.  

Stage 12 Bets

1pt each way (3 places) Carlos Rodríguez @40/1

1pt each way (3 places) Mark Padun @14/1

1pt each way (3 places) Rein Taaramäe @33/1

1pt each way (3 places) Gina Mäder @28/1

0.5pts each way (3 places) Jan Polanc @66/1

Posted 0116 Thu 1st Sep 2022

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