Giro d’Italia 2024
Stage 12 – Martinsicuro > Fano (193km)
Thu 16th May | Scheduled start: 12:25 CET
Profile
Stage 11 Result
1st Jonathan Milan (7/4F)
2nd Kaden Groves (12/1)
3rd Giovanni Lonardi (200/1)
Stage 11 Bets
Kaden Groves 1pt win @12/1 – 2nd
Caleb Ewan 1pt each way (3 places) @25/1
Filippo Ganna 0.5pts each way (3 places) @33/1
Andrea Vendrame 0.5pts each way (3 places) @66/1
Jayco AlUla got to the front way too early for the headwind finish and Ewan got swamped, leaving him too far back to land a blow. Alpecin-Deceuninck didn’t do a whole lot wrong but Milan and Merlier were just a bit faster on the flat finish. Ganna didn’t lead Thomas into the last few kilometres, so he seems to be saving his legs as much as possible for Saturday’s TT.
Note: Tim Merlier crossed the line in second but was subsequently relegated for deviation in his sprint.
Stage 12 Preview
From the coast the route heads inland for a series of short, sharp climbs which gives the profile a one-day race look about it. There’s an unclassified rise with gradients touching 20% that tops out with 9km to go that’s a perfect launchpad for a solo winning move or more likely produce a small bunch finish.
There should be a big fight for the break as it’s unlikely, but not impossible, that a team is willing to chase on such a lumpy parcours. The flat 50km start favours rouleurs and luck may play a big part in catching the right move, but once the selection is made, they should contest the final.
Stage 12 Contenders
Punchy riders with a fast finish are favoured though these stages can produce strange results as riders that aren’t as punchy or fast will have to anticipate and get ahead of the race in order to have a shot at winning.
Jhonatan Narváez (7/1; 8.0) looks to have diamonds in his legs and this finish looks similar to the opening stage which, of course, he won. With bigger goals ahead, Ineos are unlikely to put riders to work chasing all day, so the Ecuadorian champion will have to get into the break. The stage could get a bit random and, on that basis, the price is short. If Filippo Ganna (20/1; 21.0) is saving his legs for Saturday’s time trial, then the value may lie with Magnus Sheffield (25/1; 26.0) who is also going well and is suited by the flat start, though of course may also have one eye on the TT.
Julian Alaphilippe (18/1; 19.0) at his best would be ideal for this stage, but he’s not quite at that level. He was also back at the doctor’s car on stage 10 for an unknown reason so is probably best avoided for this. We haven’t seen that much of Mauri Vansevenant (40/1; 41.0) which is surprising given his riding style, but he came into the race with some excellent form and may be the better value of the Soudal Quick-Step men.
Jan Tratnik (20/1; 21.0) came close to winning stage 10 and similarly, if he makes the break, may have to anticipate the race again to win. But the Slovenian is super strong and clever enough to get a result from a difficult group.
Michael Valgren (33/1; 34.0) is sure to try again after his near miss on stage 5. The one-day nature of the race is right up his street.
Andrea Vendrame (28/1; 29.0) keeps being put up in these previews due to his versatility and this is another good one for the Italian. Vendrame’s Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale teammate Aurélien Paret-Peintre (28/1; 29.0) was the stage 1 pick given his attributes and this stage is similar in profile. In the end, he wasn’t in the mix, but is clearly on top form after his fifth on stage 10.
Laurence Pithie (28/1; 29.0) was delivered well on stage 11 and sprinted for an excellent fifth (fourth after Merlier’s relegation) showing his condition is still there on Grand Tour debut. This suits both Pithie and his Groupama-FDJ teammate Lewis Askey (80/1; 81.0).
Andrea Bagioli (33/1; 34.0) hasn’t had a great season but found some form on stage 10 before being dropped on the final climb. These shorter ascents are more to his liking and he’s fast on the line. Jasper Stuyven (50/1; 51.0) might also be let off the leash by Lidl-Trek as this looks too difficult for Jonathan Milan (125/1; 126.0). Like Tratnik, Stuyven is very good at anticipating a race and following the right moves.
Kaden Groves (40/1; 41.0) is excellent uphill for a sprinter but this looks on the limit even for him. Quinten Hermans (40/1; 41.0) or Nicola Conci (50/1; 51.0) look better alternatives for Alpecin-Deceuninck.
A number of options is the play on a stage like this where making the break could be a bit of a lottery – hopefully a couple of these catch the right move. If so, they all have the right attributes to take the win.
Stage 12 Bets
Magnus Sheffield 1pt each way (4 places) @25/1
Laurence Pithie 1pt each way (4 places) @28/1
Quinten Hermans 0.5pts each way (4 places) @33/1
Andrea Bagioli 0.5pts each way (4 places) @33/1
Mauri Vansevenant 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1
Posted 21:42 BST Wed 15th May 2024
Prices to win the stage are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Giro d’Italia at Oddschecker
[Giro d’Italia stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
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