Vuelta a España 2023

Stage 11 – Lerma > La Laguna Negra. Vinuesa (163.5km)

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Stage 10 Result

1st Filippo Ganna (2/1)

2nd Remco Evenepoel (4/6F)

3rd Primož Roglič (12/1)

Stage 10 Bets

Jonas Vingegaard 0.5pts each way (3 places) @8/1

Despite his Tour de France performance, Vingegaard’s level is clearly still behind that of his teammate Roglič. Whether that continues for the whole three weeks we’ll have to see, but the Slovenian’s small time loss to Evenepoel makes him favourite now to win the Vuelta a España.

Stage 11 Preview

A typical trappy Vuelta stage – flat all day with a very sharp kick at the end. The first-category summit climb of La Laguna Negra is 6.5 km long at an average of 6.8%, but with sharp double-digit gradients towards the top. This is tough but maybe not tough enough to warrant taking responsibility on the front all day, so who will ride?

We could be looking at another breakaway win, but it all depends on who’s ahead and how much motivation there is behind to test their rivals and compete for the stage win. A gradual rise from the gun doesn’t favour lightweight climbers which presents another puzzle in that those that are fancied at the start won’t necessarily be favoured at the end.

Stage 11 Contenders

Lennard Kämna (14/1; 15.00) completed his Grand Slam of stage wins on the muddy upslopes of stage 9 and could well be hungry for more. Doubling up is tricky, often due to the emotional high of the first win, but not unprecedented by any means – if you’ve got the legs, then use them.

Michael Storer (14/1; 15.00) was someone who did just that in the 2021 Vuelta, winning two stages and the mountains classification. His Groupama-FDJ leader, Lenny Martínez, still sits in fifth overall on GC, so will Storer be given a pass to go for his own chances here?

Wout Poels (14/1; 15.00) was sitting fourth on GC but lost a chunk of time in the crosswinds on stage 9. However, he’s clearly going well and the stiff gradients near the end suit him. The veteran Dutchman will fancy another Grand Tour victory after his win in France earlier in the year.  

Damiano Caruso (18/1; 19.00) is another Bahrain-Victorious rider who looks a stage winner in waiting. If he makes the break, he’ll be hard to beat.

Santiago Buitrago (25/1; 26.00) is riding into some form after his nasty fall on stage 4. Similar to his Bahrain Victorious teammates, Poels and Caruso, if he’s in the break, the Colombian is a big weapon to finish off the job.

Oier Lazcano (18/1; 19.00) may be found out on the final climb but is tough enough to make the break – it all depends on who’s with him.

Cristián Rodríguez (33/1; 34:00) has been one of the standout climbers so far this Vuelta. Now over 8mins down the Arkea man should be given some leeway if he wants to get up the road.

Matteo Sobrero (66/1; 67.00) rode a great race in defeat on stage 9. Jayco AlUla have had a bit of a shocker so will be throwing everything towards a stage win in the last two weeks.

Steff Cras (80/1; 81.00) has ridden excellently as he did at the Tour de France earlier in the year before crashing out. At 6mins back he might not be given leeway but is on the bubble of being a licenced stage-hunter.

Rune Herregodts (100/1; 101.00) yet again finished very nearly last on stage 10 – is he really struggling or waiting for a breakaway chance like this?

Remy Rochas (100/1; 101.00) has gone under the radar but the punchy Frenchman has ridden a very consistent race just behind the main GC guys. This finish looks good for him should he make the move ahead.

If it all comes back together, which is very possible, then it’s difficult to look past Primož Roglič (7/1; 8.00) and Remco Evenepoel (11/1; 12.00) who seem evenly matched on the climbs and in a sprint to the line.

The parcours suggest that this one is relatively easy to control, but who will do it? Essentially, Jumbo-Visma will decide if the breakaway wins or loses. Let’s go for the breakaway with these fellas:

Stage 11 Bets

Wout Poels 1pt each way (4 places) @14/1

Oier Lazcano 1pt each way (4 places) @18/1

Santiago Buitrago 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1

Cristián Rodríguez 0.5pts each way (4 places) @33/1

Remy Rochas 0.5pts each way (4 places) @100/1

Posted 00:04 BST Wed 6th Sept 2023

Prices to win the stage (in brackets) are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Vuelta a España at Oddschecker

[Vuelta a España stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

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