Vuelta a España 2023

Stage 12 – Ólvega > Zaragoza (151km)

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Stage 11 Result

1st Jesús Herrada (40/1)

2nd Romain Grégoire (18/1)

3rd Andreas Kron (28/1)

4th Jonathan Caicedo (200/1)

Stage 11 Bets

Wout Poels 1pt each way (4 places) @14/1

Oier Lazcano 1pt each way (4 places) @18/1

Santiago Buitrago 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1

Cristián Rodríguez 0.5pts each way (4 places) @33/1

Remy Rochas 0.5pts each way (4 places) @100/1

That didn’t go well. Not so much hitting the bullseye as missing the board. Bahrain Victorious must’ve been particularly disappointed having no representation up the road at all. That’s the way it goes – onwards.

Stage 12 Preview

One of only a handful of designated flat days, stage 12 contains no classified climbs and should end in a sprint. However, the leading or perhaps only true sprint-focused team, Alpecin-Deceuninck, have had to shoulder almost all the work to guarantee the last two sprints and attackers may try to exploit this. A small kicker 25km into the stage after a downhill start is the point to go – will we get a strong break that doesn’t come back or, with some tough stages ahead, will teams be content with an easier, controlled day?

The final is relatively straightforward apart from a virtual U-turn after crossing the Ebro river in Zaragoza 4km out. The riders then run along its bank to a left at a roundabout just before the flamme rouge after which the road rises slightly and curves left to the line.

Stage 12 Contenders

Kaden Groves (5/6; 1.83) is the accepted fastest rider in the race but missed out on a third stage win in Óliva in that hectic final and, let’s face it, pretty random result. Though depleted following the abandon of Sam Gaze due to illness, Alpecin will of course be all-in for Groves but, as stated above, will do well to ensure a small, controllable break gets clear.

Juan Sebastián Molano (7/1; 8.00), despite still suffering from a wrist injury, competed well in the sprint on stage 7, winning the grapple with Groves for fourth place. The Colombian is perhaps one of the few who could push the Aussie close in a straight sprint, but will he be in position to do so?

Filippo Ganna (9/1; 10.00) is showing some exceptional form – sprinting for second behind Groves into Burriana, he then won the individual time trial on Tuesday and did a lot of damage to the break the day after. Ganna doesn’t have a great love for the hustle and bustle of sprints and may not even get involved, however, a win from the break cannot be ruled out either.

Alberto Dainese (10/1; 11.00) hasn’t had the greatest Vuelta with a fourth-place finish on stage 5 his best sprint result so far. A combination of positioning and legs appears to be the problem, which isn’t ideal, but the Italian does have a habit of delivering big wins out the blue.   

Marijn van den Berg (14/1; 15.00) has been put up three times as the stage pick and found trouble or a hard luck story on each occasion. With no disasters and a clear run, the price looks decent but to pick him for a fourth time would be silly … or would it?

Edward Theuns (18/1; 19.00) has had a great Vuelta and used his experience to be in the right position more often than not. Justifiably, he’s now a lot shorter than the 50s on offer earlier in the race and is a contender for the frame once again.

Geoffrey Soupe (33/1; 34.00) – can lightening strike twice? Had Total Energies’ main sprint option Dries Van Gestel (33/1; 34.00) not crashed on a roundabout, Soupe wouldn’t have been in contention on stage 7. As it was, he only went and won it at ridiculous odds. Chapeau! Will he drop back into his leadout role again or has this given him the confidence to compete against the higher tier sprinters?

Rune Herregodts (50/1; 51.00) has been very active in trying to make breakaways and, as he showed at the Critérium du Dauphiné, is a strong all-rounder who’s hard to bring back.

Nico Denz (66/1; 67.00) has been on solid domestique duty so far this Vuelta. However, with Bora-Hansgrohe’s GC men, Aleksandr Vlasov and Cian Uijtdebroeks, outsiders at best to threaten the podium, will he be given a bit of freedom to repeat his stage hunting exploits at the Giro d’Italia earlier in the year?

No doubt this is the stage that Van den Berg will finally nail, but Juan Sebastián Molano is the pick as a better value option than Kaden Groves. Rune Herregodts and Nico Denz are in there too as break options should Alpecin lose control at the start.

Stage 12 Bets

Juan Sebastián Molano 2pts win @7/1

Rune Herregodts 0.5pts each way (3 places) @50/1

Nico Denz 0.5pts each way (3 places) @66/1

Posted 21:25 BST Wed 6th Sept 2023

Prices to win the stage (in brackets) are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Vuelta a España at Oddschecker

[Vuelta a España stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

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