Stage 12 – Parma > Genova (204km)

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Stage 11 Result

1st Alberto DAINESE (33/1)

2nd Fernando GAVIRIA (11/2)

3rd Simone CONSONNI (66/1)

Stage 11 Bets

Caleb Ewan 1pt win @7/2

Chapeau-meter

A surprising result with neither of the three favourites – Démare, Cavendish or Ewan – making the frame. Démare probably struck out too early, Cavendish missed Mørkøv, and Ewan, despite finding a good position, didn’t have the legs to get up. He may now leave the Giro to prepare for the Tour where he’ll hope for better luck.

Stage 12 Preview

A hilly stage west across the Apennine Mountains to the port city of Genoa. The road rises steadily from the flag towards the first of three third-category climbs across the 204km route. The toughest of these ascents is 4.3km in length with a stiff-looking average gradient of 8%. It peaks 30km from home and may be the launchpad for the stage winning attack. The descent brings them into town on largely flat, wide roads before a slight 2% drag up to the line.

Contenders

Famous last words, but this looks like one for the breakaway. It’s too tough for the sprinters and not tough enough for the GC favourites meaning there should be an almighty fight to make the day’s break knowing there’s unlikely to be an appetite to chase behind. The relatively gentle gradients for the first 90km won’t help an early selection to be made and certainly doesn’t favour the lighter climbers. It’s the stronger, rouleur-climber types that are more likely to make the front group though ultimately there’ll be a certain amount of good fortune required. We may also see attacks in pairs with lighter riders piggy-backing their strongmen.  

Prices are out and Mathieu van der Poel is the firm favourite at around 7/2. The profile suits him but how will he and Alpecin-Fenix play it? They could police the break and then bring it back but that would be an awful lot of work and they would still be vulnerable to attacks in the final. Van der Poel could try for the break himself but the decisive climb is quite long and a better climber may have his number. All in all, the price is short considering the variables. 

We have to include Quick-Step’s Mauro Schmid in the bet selections. He’s looked a stage winner in waiting this Giro – strong on the flat, quick up the climbs and fast in the sprint. The hilly profile suits him and is a good saver for a late attack should the breakaway be reeled in and he not be in it. 

Stage 4 winner Lennard Kämna is fancied for this and you could easily see the talented German winning the day. But I’m put off by two things – ideally, he could do with a tougher parcours and he still sits just 9mins off the pink jersey which could mean he’s a marked man to make the break. Let’s leave Kämna out till he’s lost more time and they’re back in the higher stuff.

After his near miss on stage 7, Trek-Segafredo’s Bauke Mollema has another good opportunity here to complete his set of Grand Tour stage wins. Though his team hold the pink jersey, Mollema should still be given some leeway to chase a stage win, especially on a day where Juanpe López is unlikely to be challenged. The 20/1 about him is decent enough and he makes the selections again. 

With Simon Yates out of GC contention, BikeExchange-Jayco are in stage-hunting mode for the rest of the Giro. Both Yates and Lucas Hamilton may try something here but are better suited by more mountainous terrain. UAE’s Alessandro Covi has looked very active and appears to have licence to chase breaks. Nippy uphill with a fast finish, Covi is a big danger if he’s ridden himself into top form.

Off the back of an injury, we’re yet to see the best of Magnus Cort Nielsen or indeed EF Education this Giro, with the Dane’s 4th on stage 1 their best result so far. Depleted by illness, they’ve made a number of breaks but not yet converted. This one is good for Cort, either from the break, late attack or reduced bunch sprint. Most of his Grand Tour wins have come in the final week though as he gets stronger and others tire, so let’s keep him in the back pocket for later.

Ineos’ Ben Swift described this second week as full of ‘danger days’ where looking after their GC leader Richard Carapaz was clearly their priority. However, he also expressed disappointment that they hadn’t yet won a stage. I wonder if they’ll roll the dice here as a saver in case things go wrong with Carapaz. Swift himself is a huge price again – 500/1, but he seems committed to the road captain role. Jhonatan Narváez, however, is a very backable 80/1. The profile for this stage is similar to the one he won in the Giro two years ago (also stage 12) and if he makes the break will be one of the favourites.

Stage 12 Bets

Mauro Schmid 2pts win @12/1

Alessandro Covi 1pt each way (4 places) @16/1

Bauke Mollema 1pt each way (4 places) @20/1

Jhonatan Narváez 0.5pts each way (4 places) @80/1

Posted 21.40 BST Wed 18th May 2022

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available at Oddschecker