Tour de France 2024
Stage 12 – Aurillac > Villeneuve-sur-Lot (204km)
Thu 11th July | Scheduled start: 12:35 CET
Profile
Stage 12 Preview
Where: Southwest from central France towards a weekend date with the Pyrenees.
Stage Type: Flat, but with plenty of small lumps and bumps.
Weather: Mid- to high 20s. Possible thunderstorms before getting brighter.
Climbs: Three short, classified climbs but many others that are unclassified along the way.
Start: Two unclassified rises in the first 30km could make the breakaway difficult to police and encourage some strong riders to try to get away.
Finish: A small rise that peaks around 7km from the line could provoke an attack if the pace drops. Will be a fight for a 90˚ right-hander around 1.5km from home. After that, a faster curve to the left at the kilometre marker followed by a slight rise to the line.
Stage suits: Sprinters, classics sprinters and possibly rouleurs.
Breakaway chances: Low, but can’t be ruled out given the lumpy terrain and the effects of a tough stage the day before. Unfortunately, the parcours also suits some of the main sprinters which will motivate those teams.
What will happen?: Probably won’t see the standoff we’ve had on previous flat stages – some riders and teams without a fast man may fancy getting up the road. Should be enough sprint teams (Alpecin-Deceuninck, Intermarché-Wanty, Lotto Dstny) to police and control however and a bunch finish is still favourite.
Stage 12 Contenders
Jasper Philipsen (6/5; 2.2) finished off a leadout masterclass from Alpecin-Deceuninck on stage 10. The ups and downs will be no trouble for him – a big favourite to double up here.
Biniam Girmay (13/2; 7.5) has been super consistent and this is another stage that suits the green jersey wearer very well. Guaranteed to be in the mix if it comes back to a sprint.
Dylan Groenewegen (13/2; 7.5) has his win but keeps getting into bad positions and others are better suited by the terrain.
Mark Cavendish (9/1; 10/1) has been nowhere apart from the stage he won. Difficult to have any confidence that he’ll be involved here.
Arnaud De Lie (16/1; 17.0) goes well on an uphill finish, though this is nothing like stage 8 which he maybe should’ve won. Has terrain that suits and has drifted to a backable price.
Wout van Aert (25/1; 26.0) sprinted well for fourth on stage 10 and was active in the early skirmishes the day after showing his level is rising. The stage suits and the price is attractive. Is this the day to get on board with Van Aert?
Stage 12 Bets
Visma Lease a Bike will be buzzing after Jonas Vingegaard’s incredible win on stage 11 and this could inspire Wout van Aert – with Christophe Laporte as a deluxe-leadout – to complete his own comeback from serious injury with a win.
It should end in a bunch sprint but let’s have a few very small interests at big prices on potential breakaway riders or even sprint finish contenders should it turn particularly tough.
Wout van Aert 1pt each way (4 places) @25/1 – 2nd
Marijn van den Berg 0.25pts each way (4 places) @150/1
Toms Skujiņš 0.25pts each way (4 places) @150/1
Davide Ballerini 0.25pts each way (4 places) @250/1
Posted 19:44 BST Wed 10th July 2024
Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
Stage 12 Result*
1st Biniam Girmay (13/2)
2nd Wout van Aert (25/1)
3rd Pascal Ackermann (22/1)
4th Jasper Philipsen (6/5F)
*Arnaud Démare relegated from 3rd place for sprint deviation
[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
