Tour de France 2024
Stage 13 – Agen > Pau (165km)
Fri 12th July | Scheduled start: 13:30 CET
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Stage 13 Preview
Where: Southwest to Pau at the foot of the Pyrenees.
Stage Type: Designated flat, but pretty hilly in the final quarter of the race.
Weather: Cooler with the chance of showers. Stronger winds making splits a possibility.
Climbs: Two short fourth-category climbs in the last 50km which may invite some late attacks and doesn’t favour the purer sprinters.
Start: Plenty of small unclassified lumps could make it difficult to police the breakaway.
Finish: Pretty technical – a 90˚ left-hander at the flamme rouge, over a roundabout a couple of hundred metres later then a sweeping left up what looks quite a narrow road leaving a 500m flat run to the line.
Stage suits: Classics sprinters, rouleurs, baroudeurs.
Breakaway chances: Decent. Sprint teams are depleted and tired, and there’s enough terrain to make it difficult for a strong break to be brought back. Crosswinds and splits would severely reduce its chances however.
What will happen?: Alpecin-Deceuninck lost two men (Jonas Rickaert and Søren Kragh Andersen) on stage 12, Astana Qazaqstan also two but effectively three (Michael Mørkøv, Yevgeniy Federov and Alexey Lutsenko), Lotto Dstny had four men involved in crashes though all bar Jarrad Drizners have apparently avoided serious injury, Fabio Jakobsen abandoned and Intermarché-Wanty may prefer a break to win to protect the green jersey. So it’s unclear who is willing and/or able to ride all day for a sprint which gives the breakaway a decent chance of success. This one’s in the balance – bunch finish or breakaway win.
Stage 13 Contenders
Jasper Philipsen (5/2; 3.5) had to do a huge amount of work to challenge in the sprint on stage 12 and very nearly made it. He clearly still has great legs, but do Alpecin-Deceuninck have the resources to control the day?
Biniam Girmay (7/2; 4.5) is making it look easy – taking his third win of the Tour. It’s amazing how the gaps seem to open up when sprinters are riding with confidence. There’s no need for Intermarché-Wanty to contribute to the chase and they may look to infiltrate the break, but if it comes back for a sprint, who’s to say the green jersey wearer won’t get win number four.
Wout van Aert (12/1; 13.0) was playing down his chances for stage 12 to say the least after his fall the day before but in the end probably would’ve won had it not been for Démare’s deviation in the sprint. Fair to say his level’s pretty high then. His price has halved now as a result – frustrating, as he should’ve landed for us on stage 12!
Arnaud De Lie (25/1; 26.0) is close but doesn’t look like winning, especially not on a flat finish. The parcours suits though and he may benefit from the tiredness in the legs of others.
Pascal Ackermann (25/1; 26.0) was promoted into a place after Démare’s relegation, his second in a row. Israel – Premier Tech are fully behind him and this course is in the German’s favour.
Breakaway contenders:
Magnus Cort (22/1; 23.0) would prefer a bit more climbing these days and, given the variables the price looks short, but is sure to be prominent in the early breakaway moves along with Uno-X Mobility teammate Jonas Abrahamsen (80/1; 81.0). This pair, along with a few others, would be difficult to bring back.
Jasper Stuyven (40/1; 41.0) very nearly bagged his first win since Milano-Sanremo three years ago on the gravel stage. Without their leader, Mads Pedersen, the Lidl-Trek riders will have more of a free hand which includes the ever-upbeat Toms Skujiņš (100/1; 101.0) who was in the early moves on stage 12.
Michael Matthews (100/1; 101.0) has been pretty quiet but on a stage not really suited to their sprinter, Dylan Groenewegen, Jayco-AlUla may give the Aussie licence to get up the road and try his luck.
Nico Denz (175/1; 176.0) won two stages in the space of three days in the Giro d’Italia last year where the break wasn’t necessarily favoured. Been on domestique duty but after Primož Roglič’s crash, Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe may decide to play some other cards. Climbs well for a big fella and has a mean sprint – Denz has to be in the pot.
Davide Ballerini (325/1; 326.0) was sniffing around the front on stage 12 just in case a big break went. Doesn’t look like a day for Cavendish and their team is depleted. Should be given licence to get up the road.
Georg Zimmermann (500/1; 501.0) could do with some more climbs for sure but he’s the best breakaway card that Intermarché-Wanty have got, so they may choose to play it.
Stage 13 Bets
On balance, a bunch finish is the favourite but it definitely has the whiff of a breakaway win too. So best to play both scenarios.
Despite his injuries, Wout van Aert is definitely on an upward curve and with a bit of luck has a big chance here. Let’s also have a few speculative breakaway options at big prices.
Wout van Aert 1pt each way (3 places) @12/1 – 2nd
Toms Skujiņš 0.25pts each way (3 places) @100/1
Michael Matthews 0.25pts each way (3 places) @100/1
Nico Denz 0.25pts each way (3 places) @175/1
Davide Ballerini 0.25pts each way (3 places) @325/1
Georg Zimmermann 0.25 pts each way (3 places) @500/1
Posted 21:19 BST Thu 11th July 2024
Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
Stage 13 Result
1st Jasper Philipsen (5/2F)
2nd Wout van Aert (12/1)
3rd Pascal Ackermann (25/1)
4th Biniam Girmay (7/2)
[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
