Giro d’Italia 2023

Stage 13 – Borgofranco d’Ivrea > Crans Montana (199km)

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Stage 12 Result

1st Nico Denz (100/1)

2nd Toms Skujiņš (33/1)

3rd Sebastian Berwick (150/1)

4th Alessandro Tonelli (250/1)

Stage 12 Bets

Ben Healy 2pts win @5/1

Patrick Konrad 1pt each way (3 places) @17/1

Michael Matthews 1pt each way (4 places) @20/1

Some decent prices made the frame there. Denz said afterwards that it wasn’t the team plan for him to get up the road, but once there planned to help Konrad (who was 5/1F in-running at one point) win the stage. Shame he didn’t try a bit harder! Only joking – great ride from Nico. Matthews made the break but apparently said he’s not on his best form and Healy, like about 90% of the peloton, said he was feeling a bit sick and finished in the grupetto.

Stage 13 Preview

Big mountain day alert! But not quite as big as first planned. Due to the risk of avalanches, the riders will not go over the Gran San Bernardo Pass which was to be the Cima Coppi (the highest point in the race where extra blue jersey points are awarded). Instead, they’ll cross the border into Switzerland through a tunnel lower down the mountain.

But it’s still a brutally hard day in the Alps with three first-category climbs and over 4500m altitude gain. After Gran San Bernardo, we have the Croix de Coeur – 15.4km at 8.8% but averaging 10.3% in the last 4km – and finally the summit finish of Crans Montana which is 13.1km long at an average gradient of 7.2%.

The gradients on that final climb suggest that we may not see huge time gaps between the favourites, but it depends entirely on how it’s raced. Still, we’re sure to see a shakeup of the top 10 and afterwards should have a clearer picture of who can (or maybe more accurately can’t) win the Giro d’Italia 2023.

Stage 13 Contenders

A big summit finish would ordinarily point to a GC contender winning the stage, but this one is in the balance. For us viewers, it would be great to see it kick off on the steeper slopes of the Croix de Coeur, but there are plenty of big days ahead and teams don’t need to throw the kitchen sink just yet. So maybe a final climb selection is more likely which leaves a lot of road for a breakaway, no doubt containing some exceptional climbers, to build an insurmountable lead. Not that GC teams necessarily care of course – their goal is to gap their rivals, taking the stage win would be a bonus.

Ineos Grenadiers have the team strength to put the hammer down on the final climb to put others under pressure, however, with Geraint Thomas in pink, it’s not their responsibility to do so and can ride more defensively. Primož Roglič lies just 2secs behind Thomas, meaning Jumbo-Visma ought to do the driving, so why were both Sepp Kuss and Michel Hessmann in the breakaway on stage 12? Saving their legs for this might have been wiser.  

Roglič suffered a deep gash to his hip in the pile-up that ended Tao Geoghegan Hart’s Giro but, knowing how tough the Slovenian is, it’s unlikely to affect him too much. Roglič gapped his rivals on I Cappuccini a week ago in the only proper GC dust-up we’ve seen and pound-for-pound is the best climber here. Of course, after 12 days of a grand tour, and especially this one, that doesn’t necessarily count for much. Given that the final kilometre levels off, a sprint finish may be needed to take the win and Roglič should be the fastest. If it all comes back together, he must be fancied to take the win.

UAE Team Emirates’ Joäo Almeida also packs a fast finish which is surprising given his lack of explosiveness going uphill. In fact, this final climb with its lack of double-digit gradients is perfect for his diesel engine. The Portuguese is another who’s apparently been a bit sick and will have to be careful not to get distanced on the descent of the Croix de Coeur especially with wet weather forecast. Roglič is very short at just 5/2, so Almeida is the GC pick at 20/1.

The flattish start isn’t ideal for flyweight climbers to get into the breakaway. However, there ought to be a few bigger riders looking to get ahead of the race to make the time limit, so they should be looking to hitch on to the back of a rouleur and piggyback up the road rather than waste energy attacking solo.

Plenty very good climbers are now well down on GC and will be eyeing up an opportunity here. EOLO-Kometa’s Lorenzo Fortunato won on Monte Zoncolan in the 2021 Giro d’Italia so he’s no stranger to winning big mountain stages. The Italian came into this Giro in hot form, winning the Vuelta Asturias and riding well in the Tour of the Alps but is now 15mins down on GC which gives him freedom to go up the road. However, the energy wasted chasing the break on stage 12 was not ideal.

Stage 8 winner Ben Healy said he was ‘chesty’ before the start of stage 12. With Alberto Bettiol up the road there was no need for him to push and he promptly cut the engines, finishing over 20mins down. Struggling with an illness or saving his legs for this? Who knows? Both Healy and Fortunato are around 10/1 which is not a great price considering the break might not even win.

Offering a bit more value at 40/1 is Movistar’s Einer Rubio who would’ve had eyes on a GC top 10 prior to the race but has since slipped away after struggling in the cold and rain of stage 10. But he’s a top climber who could be on the verge of a breakthrough win.

UAE’s Jay Vine spoke of taking a couple of recovery days and was out the back early on stage 12. He’s been cut severely for this and is now the clear second favourite at 5/1 so perhaps he’s given an indication that his recovery period is over. Still, it’s short considering the brutal start to the Giro Vine has had.  

His teammate, Brandon McNulty, has been well fancied for a few stages but has so far failed to get into a breakaway. He has the class to pop up and land a big one though and is now an attractive-looking 25/1.

So too Grupama-FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot in his final Giro d’Italia. He’s another who picked up a cold but is said to have recovered quite well. This terrain is his playground and, along with all the mountain points he can hoover up, an emotional Pinot stage win cannot be ruled out at a decent enough price.

Stage 13 Bets

Joäo Almeida 1pt each way (4 places) @20/1

Brandon McNulty 1pt each way (4 places) @25/1

Thibaut Pinot 1pt each way (4 places) @20/1

Einer Rubio 0.5pts each way (3 places) @40/1

Posted 23.10 BST 18th May 2023

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Giro d’Italia at Oddschecker