Tour de France 2022

Stage 13 – Le Bourg d’Oisans > Saint-Étienne (192.6km)

Profile

Stage 12 Result

1st Tom Pidcock (50/1)

2nd Louis Meintjes (40/1)

3rd Chris Froome (150/1)

4th Neilson Powless (66/1)

Stage 12 Bets

1pt each way (4 places) Romain Bardet @28/1

2pts win Thibaut Pinot @9/2

1pt each way (4 places) Carlos Verona @33/1

0.5pts each way (4 places) Neilson Powless @66/1 – 4th

Powless made the break but found others a bit better on the Alpe. Still, a small profit on the day. Both Pinot and Verona tried to bridge on the Col du Galibier but were tagged and that was them done – they might get another chance next week. And Bardet, like Quintana, lost time on the leaders, perhaps paying for their efforts the previous day.

Stage 13 Preview

After the drama in the mountains, focus switches back to the sprinters but it won’t be straightforward for teams to put their fast men in a position to fight for the win. The profile contains three categorised climbs and after descending from the final third-category (6.6km at 4.5%), there’s a 20km uphill drag before entering St Étienne.

So there’s a chance for the breakaway or even late attacks to decide the winner if it becomes disorganised. If they arrive for a bunch sprint, then it’s relatively uncomplicated – there’s a sweeping left turn with about 700m to go then it’s flat and straight to the line.

Stage 13 Contenders

Unusually, we’re 12 stages in to the Tour de France and we haven’t lost any of our sprinters. And many still have their full leadout firepower, or close to. For this reason – and despite the profile for stage 13 being a bit lumpy – there ought to be enough teams willing to control the break and keep it together for that tricky final either for a bunch or reduced sprint.

On paper it looks a big ask for the two weakest climbers from the sprint contenders – QuickStep-Alpha Vinyl’s Fabio Jakobsen and BikeExchange-Jayco’s Dylan Groenewegen. Quickstep may try to infiltrate the break with Andrea Bagioli, Mikkel Honoré or Florian Sénéchal to take away any responsibility for the chase. BikeExchange will probably back Michael Matthews either from the break or a reduced sprint.

The break might be a better option for Matthews as the final climb and drag into town will not be tough enough to shake out Wout van Aert. He will start stage 13 as favourite and is available at a best price of 4/1. Could Van Aert and Jumbo-Visma offer a chance to Christophe Laporte to sprint for victory and reward his top work so far? Van Aert has looked reluctant to give away stage wins or green jersey points up to now, but you never know. Laporte is a much more backable 28/1 and is capable of winning a stage like this.

There could however be one who is faster in a reduced sprint. Alpecin-Deceuninck’s Jasper Philipsen celebrated through the line on stage 4 only to find out that Van Aert was 8secs up the road. Still, it was a great performance to put himself in that position in what was a much tougher final than we have here. He should’ve survived the mountains well enough and after four runners-up spots in the Tour de France is a decent 8/1 to finally get his nose in front.

Lotto-Soudal’s Caleb Ewan is no fan of the high stuff but is much more suited to these shorter, punchier climbs. On his best day, this would be good for him, but how fatigued will he be? There are a couple more sprint stages to come before the big showdown on the Champs-Élysées which is his main focus. This one may be a bit soon after the mountains.

Both Trek-Segafredo’s Mads Pedersen and TotalEnergies’ Peter Sagan could get involved in a reduced sprint but are unlikely to beat either Van Aert or Philipsen, and that puts me off.

And then we’re into riders that fall into the breakaway or opportunists camp. Matej Mohorič has been pretty anonymous and so despite his pedigree can’t be backed. His teammate Fred Wright on the other hand has been very lively in breakaways. He’s twice the price of Mohorič at 50/1.

The stage doesn’t look stiff enough for the likes of EF Education-EasyPost’s Alberto Bettiol and Magnus Cort or Trek-Segafredo’s Jasper Stuyven and Quinn Simmons– they might be looking for the following day’s hillier parcours, but if they’re in the break and it’s too big to pull back then of course will be big players.  

Rather than the puncheurs above, I prefer to look at rouleurs that have form in powering across rolling terrain and fending off a chasing pack. Bora-hansgrohe’s Nils Politt won a similar stage at last year’s Tour and although he doesn’t seem to be quite on that stellar form would still be a threat and is available at tasty triple-figure odds. Bora do however have a sprint option in Danny van Poppel which may complicate things for Politt.

Intermarché-Wanty Gobert’s Taco van der Hoorn had a very near miss on the Roubaix stage. Van der Hoorn is superb at targeting specific stages and then smartly managing his efforts from a break. If he’s allowed up the road, the chasers are in trouble.

Groupama-FDJ’s GC challenge with David Gaudu suffered a blow on stage 12 when he shipped another minute to his rivals. So they may give an option to Stefan Küng to try for the break. Like Politt and Van der Hoorn, Küng is excellent over the rolling terrain and he’s not too shabby on the climbs these days either.

This is a tricky one that could play out in several different ways, so a sprinter and a few big-priced breakaway/late attack picks gives us options.

Stage 13 Bets

2pts win Jasper Philipsen @8/1

0.25pts each way (4 places) Nils Politt @100/1

0.25pts each way (4 places) Stefan Küng @80/1

0.25pts each way (4 places) Taco van der Hoorn @80/1

Posted 2056 BST Thu 14th July 2022

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Tour de France at Oddschecker