Vuelta a España 2023

Stage 13 – Formigal. Huesca la Magia > Col du Tourmalet (135km)

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Stage 12 Result

1st Juan Sebastián Molano (7/1)

2nd Kaden Groves (5/6F)

3rd Boy van Poppel (300/1)

Stage 12 Bets

Juan Sebastián Molano 2pts win @7/1 – 1st

Rune Herregodts 0.5pts each way (3 places) @50/1

Nico Denz 0.5pts each way (3 places) @66/1

That’s a bit better – a big chapeau to Rui Oliveira who, having found himself a bit boxed in for the last kilometre, launched Molano perfectly to deliver the win. There was bad luck behind for Groves and a number of others, but that’s sprinting.

Stage 13 Preview

The queen stage of this year’s Vuelta a España – over 4,000m of climbing packed into just 135km of racing ending with a summit finish of the iconic Col du Tourmalet. Breaking it down, there’s a short third-category climb (4.4km at 5.4%) from the gun where the breakaway might form, however, it’s more likely to go on the especial-category Col d’Aubisque (16.5km at 7.1%) following a near 30km descent.

If so, it’ll be stacked with all the top-tier climbers now out of general classification contention and maybe even a few infiltrators on the GC bubble. After that, it’s the first-category Col de Spandelles (10.3km at 8.3%) and then a short valley road before the Tourmalet – 18.9km at 7.4%. In short, an absolutely brutal day in the saddle which will shake up the GC race good and proper.

Stage 13 Contenders

Jumbo-Visma have history on days like these and with three riders in GC contention one would assume that a plan has been hatched to attack early, isolate rivals and blow the race apart– but we’ll have to see. As always, the break has a chance, especially one that’s likely to be as strong as this, but it all depends on how quickly it kicks off behind.

Primož Roglič (4/1; 5.00), following his impressive time trial on Tuesday, is now the favourite to win this year’s Vuelta a España and could firm up his odds here. But the Jumbo-Visma picture is not clear – there are cards to play and in doing so, Roglič may find himself in a defensive role. In a straight fight on the final climb, the Slovenian will fancy his chances, but it could get complicated.  

Jonas Vingegaard (4/1; 5.00) disappointed in the time trial and shows how far he is away from his Tour de France form. That doesn’t, however, mean he can’t win the Vuelta. Regardless that his form may well build in the final week, he can now be used as an attacking foil against rivals which could leapfrog him back as Jumbo-Visma’s main GC player.

Remco Evenepoel (11/1; 12.00) and his team, Soudal Quick-Step, are up against it here. Not only must he defend against three Jumbo-Visma riders with little or no support, but UAE Team Emirates also have three riders in the top 10. Whether they’re used as attackers or end up helping Evenepoel in defending the wasp attacks we’ll have to see, but chapeau if the Belgian can pull off a stage win when so outnumbered.

Juan Ayuso (14/1; 15.00) has been excellent but did have a tumble before the start of stage 11 which, from a betting point of view, is off-putting. He should be there or thereabouts, however, and could well be challenging for the win.

Sepp Kuss (16/1; 17.00) is in red and this is the big test – if he resists the attacks over the next two days then Kuss must have a genuine chance of winning this Vuelta. Ordinarily, it would be someone like Kuss who would go on the Aubisque, and he still might, but more likely his GC legs will be fully tested near the top of the Tourmalet.

Michael Storer (18/1; 19.00) was hanging around at the back on stage 12 which is often a sign of a rider fancying the break the next day. Despite former red jersey wearer Lenny Martínez still sitting in fifth, the Aussie will surely be given a green light and the double Vuelta stage winner has a great chance if it stays away.

Wout Poels (16/1; 17.00) won a big stage of the Tour de France in July and could get back-to-back Grand Tour wins here. Bahrain-Victorious were without representation in the big break on stage 11 which, considering they don’t have a sprinter or a GC contender, is pretty unforgivable. They may well be mob-handed here.  

Santiago Buitrago (33/1; 34.00) is another Bahrain-Victorious rider who, after his fall earlier in the race, appears to be riding into some form. The Colombian sits less then 7mins off GC, which could be a problem, but is a weapon from a break.

Damiano Caruso (25/1; 26.00) is the third Bahrain option and at over 20mins down has plenty of rope to get up the road. Should all three make the break, then cards can be played and either one of them could win.

Einer Rubio (28/1; 29.00) is on the same time as Buitrago and therefore eyes could be on him, but no doubt will try and then, should the break get home, will be one of the favourites.

Christian Rodríguez (50/1; 51.00) has been a stage pick a couple of times but not made the frame. His price is attractive for one of the best climbers in the race.

Steff Cras (150/1; 151.00) has also proved himself against the best and if switched to stage-hunting mode may well challenge at a big price despite his recent bout of sickness.

Given the intense parcours and prestige of the stage, a GC win is more likely than not. But let’s have a few breakaway options just in case. Either way, this is a stage not to be missed.

Stage 13 Bets

Primož Roglič 3pts win @4/1

Michael Storer 1pt each way (3 places) @18/1

Santiago Buitrago 0.5pts each way (4 places) @33/1

Steff Cras 0.5pts each way (4 places) @150/1

Posted 23:33 BST Thu 7th Sept 2023

Prices to win the stage (in brackets) are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Vuelta a España at Oddschecker

[Vuelta a España stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

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