Giro d’Italia 2024

Stage 13 – Riccione > Cento (179km)

Fri 17th May | Scheduled start: 13:00 CET

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Stage 12 Result

1st Julian Alaphilippe (18/1)

2nd Jhonatan Narváez (7/1F)

3rd Quinten Hermans (33/1)

4th Michael Valgren (33/1)

Stage 12 Bets

Magnus Sheffield 1pt each way (4 places) @25/1

Laurence Pithie 1pt each way (4 places) @28/1

Quinten Hermans 0.5pts each way (4 places) @33/1 – 3rd

Andrea Bagioli 0.5pts each way (4 places) @33/1

Mauri Vansevenant 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1

I was wrong – Alaphilippe is back to his best. There was some hesitation behind as full cooperation was almost certainly just handing victory to Narváez, but it was still an unbelievable ride from ‘Loulou’ to stay away for almost 130km. Of the picks, Hermans, Pithie and Vansevenant eventually got into the mega break of 30-odd riders but only Hermans made the decisive ‘break of the break’. He matched Narváez on the final climb but couldn’t beat him in the sprint for second.

Stage 13 Preview

After a hectic stage 12, this one is likely to be a bit more sedate, at least until the final run for home and bunch finish that is all but guaranteed. Before that though there are almost 180km of flat, straight roads for sprint teams to control the break – if indeed there is one given how obviously doomed it looks on paper. Some crosswinds might change that, but the current forecast doesn’t suggest they’ll be strong enough or in the right direction to affect the outcome.

The final is a little technical – there’ll be a battle for the front ahead of a right-left-right combination just before the flamme rouge followed by a sweeping right-hander 450m from the line. As usual, an organised leadout and well-timed launch will be key to deciding the day’s winner.

Stage 13 Contenders

Jonathan Milan (5/6; 1.83) is the fastest rider with the best leadout and if sprints were simple would definitely win. However, they’re not – a lot can go wrong so backing any sprinter at odds-on is a risk. The maglia ciclamino wearer was dropped quite quickly on stage 12 when the road started to go up, so could be suffering from fatigue and having two wins already may take an edge off his hunger for more. Wishful thinking for his rivals perhaps.

Tim Merlier (9/4; 3.25) crashed heavily during stage 7’s time trial and was relegated on stage 11 for deviation in his sprint, so he hasn’t had the best last few days. Alaphilippe’s win on stage 12 though did put a smile back on his face and it will have given the team a much-needed boost. If he finds the right gap and times his launch perfectly, then Merlier can beat Milan to the line.

Kaden Groves (9/1; 10.0) would prefer some hills in the parcours of course and looks a little behind the front two on flat speed. However, unlike Groves, neither Milan nor Merlier have won a stage this deep into a three-week race. There may become a point where, as others become fatigued, Groves’ endurance wins out, and that’s something for the Aussie to hang on to.

Alberto Dainese (20/1; 21.0) has lost both Alexander Krieger and Marius Mayrhofer from his leadout, and his main wingman, Matteo Trentin, had a big day out on stage 12. So that’s not in his favour, however, he usually pops up and wins a Giro stage out of nowhere at some point, so who knows?

Caleb Ewan (25/1; 26.0) hasn’t really been able to open up a full sprint yet which, to some degree, makes his form a bit unknown and his price potentially value. Max Walscheid and Luka Mezgec are strong, but things haven’t quite clicked between the three. If they do, Ewan could be dangerous, though confidence must be starting to ebb and time is running out.

Juan Sebastián Molano (20/1; 21.0) could get another luxury leadout from Pogačar who seems very keen on rewarding his domestiques for their hard work. Fair play – let’s just hope the pink jersey doesn’t end up on the deck. Molano was coming with plenty of speed when he was blocked by Merlier on stage 11. Who knows where he’d have finished and the Colombian isn’t without a chance if everything comes right.

Phil Bauhaus (25/1; 26.0) had Milan’s wheel with 400m to go on stage 11 but just couldn’t match his acceleration, drifted back and had to settle for eighth. If he gets a good position, Bauhaus is capable of making the frame but the win looks a stretch.

With a clear run Milan wins but the price is restrictive, so let’s go in again with Kaden Groves. The Alpecin-Deceuninck leadout is still fully intact, which could be crucial in the fight for the last few bends, and his level may be improving as others tire.

Stage 13 Bets

Kaden Groves 1pt each way (3 places) @9/1

Posted 20:50 BST Thu 16th May 2024

Prices to win the stage are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Giro d’Italia at Oddschecker

[Giro d’Italia stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

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