Vuelta a España 2024
Stage 13 – Lugo > Puerto de Ancares (176km)
Fri 30th Aug | KM0: 13:07 CET
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Stage 13 Preview
Where: Travelling east out of Galicia to the edge of the Cantabrian mountains.
Stage Type: Mountain.
Weather: Mid 20˚Cs dropping to high teens as they go up. A small chance of rain in the afternoon though that’s been the case all week and we haven’t seen a drop.
Climbs: Four in total starting with a third-category climb (5km at 5.8%) and a second category (7.7km at 5.4%) in the first 75km. The final two climbs are packed into the last 30km – a second category (6.6km at 6%) followed by a summit finish up the first-category Puerto de Ancares (7.5km at 9.3%).
Start: Up and down a bit until they hit the first classified climb around the 30km mark.
Finish: The first-category Puerto de Ancares starts relatively shallow before ramping up – the final 5km average 12.5%.
Stage suits: GC favourites and excellent climbers outside of GC contention.
Breakaway chances: Possible but not likely. Given the difficulty of the last climb, any break would need several minutes lead to bring it home.
What will happen?: A decent-sized group should get ahead, perhaps including satellite riders for GC teams. Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe will pull going into the final two climbs before a proper dust-up in the final 5km of the Puerto de Ancaras setting up a stage win for the GC players.
Stage 13 Contenders
Enric Mas (3/1; 4.0) looks the best climber in the race and he could easily be favourite to win the Vuelta by the end of the day. His attack on stage 9 was encouraging for someone who tends to just follow – we’ll need to see that spirit again and at least there’s no final descent to hobble him this time.
Primož Roglič (7/2; 4.5) is still being troubled by his back, apparently, though it hasn’t handicapped him too much so far. It’s probably true to an extent but of course also works as a diversion. Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe will undoubtedly put the hammer down and then it’ll be up to Roglič to deliver.
Mikel Landa (14/1) has been best of the rest so far and this is a big opportunity for the Basque man to podium in a Grand Tour. The steep ramps should be to his liking too.
Mattias Skjelmose (28/1) came here aiming for the podium but his struggles in the first week have seen him refocus towards the white jersey. Is clearly on decent form but this is a big test.
Carlos Rodríguez (33/1) currently holds that white jersey (1min 18secs ahead of Skjelmose) and seems to be improving in this second week, no doubt liking these longer climbs rather than the short, punchy offerings early on. Wouldn’t be a surprise if he made the frame.
Richard Carapaz (33/1) is in a fighting mood which makes him dangerous at a decent price.
Adam Yates (50/1) lost time on stage 11 though may have still been fatigued from his race winning effort on stage 9. Price looks big if he’s anywhere near the stellar form he showed that day.
For the breakaway:
Jack Haig (20/1) had a difficult Tour de France but has come here on good form and, as a former Vuelta podium finisher, knows how to perform on these roads. Doesn’t win much though.
Michael Woods (20/1) almost bridged to the breakaway on stage 11 and then who knows how it would’ve played out – he just can’t catch the right move! Has been a stage pick four times already. Ya basta!
Eddie Dunbar (20/1) won stage 11 and might try his luck again. With his confidence back, Dunbar could easily double up.
Max Poole (40/1) has finished second and third on the last two stages and therefore is likely to be somewhat fatigued, but Poole is basically a GC-level climber not in contention, which makes him a dangerous player from the break.
Stage 13 Bets
No hiding place on the final climb – it should be an excellent showdown between the GC players.
It’s difficult to split the top two but Enric Mas definitely seems to have the edge uphill. What a day this could be for the much-criticised nearly man of the Vuelta. Attack Enric … please!
As a breakaway saver, let’s go in again with Max Poole at a decent price. He’s earned it.
Enric Mas 3pts win @3/1
Max Poole 1pt each way (4 places) @40/1
Posted 21:15 BST Thu 29th Aug 2024
Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
Stage 13 Result
1st Michael Woods (20/1)
2nd Mauro Schmid (150/1)
3rd Marc Soler (66/1)
4th Sam Oomen (150/1)
5th Wout van Aert (100/1)
[Vuelta a España stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
