Stage 13 – Sanremo > Cuneo (150km)

Profile

Stage 12 Result

1st Stefano OLDANI (66/1)

2nd Lorenzo ROTA (33/1)

3rd Gijs LEEMREIZE (150/1)

4th Bauke MOLLEMA (20/1)

Stage 12 Bets

Mauro Schmid 2pts win @12/1

Alessandro Covi 1pt each way (4 places) @16/1

Bauke Mollema 1pt each way (4 places) @20/1 – 4th

Jhonatan Narváez 0.5pts each way (4 places) @80/1

Chapeau-meter

The decisive move slipped away on the penultimate climb and a lack of teamwork behind allowed them 40secs which, surprisingly, they never relinquished. Close again for Mollema who looked strong and will surely convert a winning position at some point. Both Covi and Schmid were in nascent moves that didn’t stick, whilst Ineos again kept their men on a tight leash.

Stage 13 Preview

At just 150km, this is short and, like many short stages, isn’t entirely predictable. It includes a testing third-category climb after 40km before the road slopes downhill to the finish in Cuneo. Sprinters could well be dropped on the climb and have to fight back on to contest the finish, but if a big group gets clear, will there be enough teams willing to chase? If the bunch come in together, the run-in is straight but with a 2.5% gradient which widens the field of potential winners.

Contenders

This is one for the sprinters but it could go wrong for them. A lot will depend on how early the break goes clear. There’s about 25km of flattish road before it starts to tilt uphill where a small controlled break is likely to form. But if it doesn’t, then a bigger group could forge clear on the climb and that would spell trouble for the sprint teams.

They only have this and one more opportunity – on stage 18 – to set up a win for their fastmen, so will do their utmost to make it happen. But as we get deeper into the Giro and as teams become depleted and worn down, stages like these can produce surprises. 

With Caleb Ewan sat at home, we’ve no Lotto-Soudal to help police, peg, and bring back the break. That will be largely down to Groupama-FDJ for Arnaud Démare. They’ve proven to have the most reliable, well-drilled leadout, the climb shouldn’t pose any issue and the uphill finish also suits the double-stage winner. Stage 11 proved that being the fastest doesn’t guarantee anything if your timing is just off. Pushed on by a tailwind, he struck out early for the line but got nabbed late on, ultimately finishing outside the places. Démare is clearly a strong contender and is priced at 4/1 joint favourite. 

He shares favouritism with UAE-Team Emirates’ Fernando Gaviria who, but for a mechanical and a dream ride from Alberto Dainese, could’ve had two stage wins already. Without the leadout of Démare, positioning will be key but he clearly has a big chance to break his duck here. 

DSM’s Dainese wasn’t even favourite to contest the sprint within his own team on stage 11 until Cees Bol subbed him in about 30km from home. It’ll be interesting if this gives the young Italian the confidence he needs to step up into the top tier of sprinters – he has a chance here to prove it was no fluke.

The uphill drag to the line is not ideal for Quick-Steps’ Mark Cavendish but it by no means rules him out of it. If ridden hard, he’s likely to be dropped on the climb, and although there’s plenty of time to get back on, it could be a hard grind. They may choose to keep Davide Ballerini up front in the hope he could contest a reduced sprint, though to be fair, he looked pretty cooked himself in the breakaway on stage 12. 

The tactics of Alpecin-Fenix will be interesting. That finish helps level the playing field between Mathieu van der Poel and the purer sprinters, and making the stage as hard as possible also favours him. Will they put the hammer down on the climb to drop and tire the sprinters? It’s a long way from home and may be wasted energy. Plus, they all had a hard day on stage 12 and got their win - might they have a recovery day here?

If the break goes to the end, you’ll still need a sprint to take the day. Magnus Cort Nielson? But he popped pretty quickly from the break on stage 12. Alessandro Covi? But he’s in the same team as Gaviria. Mauro Schmid? Ditto for Cavendish. That said, it’s a well-worn tactic to get up the road and take responsibility off your team behind – it gives you two ways to win the race. It’s speculative, but let’s stay onside with these two, plus Gaviria who’s been pushed out to a nicer price.

Stage 13 Bets

Fernando Gaviria 2pts win @11/2

Mauro Schmid 1pt each way (3 places) @25/1

Alessandro Covi 1pt each way (4 places) @28/1

Posted 21.20 BST Thu 19th May 2022

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available at Oddschecker