Tour de France 2023

Stage 13 – Chatillon-sur-Chalaronne > Grand Colombier (137.6km)

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Stage 12 Result

1st Ion Izagirre (80/1)

2nd Mathieu Burgaudeau (125/1)

3rd Matteo Jorgenson (28/1)

4th Tiesj Benoot (300/1)

5th Tobias Johannessen (18/1)

Stage 12 Bets

Mattias Skjelmose 1pt each way (5 places) @14/1

Tobias Johannessen 1pt each way (5 places) @18/1 – 5th

Thibaut Pinot 0.5pts each way (5 places) @28/1 – 6th

Romain Bardet 0.5pts each way (5 places) @50/1

Maxim Van Gils 0.5pts each way (5 places) @50/1

With two of the fastest finishers in the front group in Johannessen and Pinot things looked promising, but the win disappeared up the road and it got messy behind in what was another mad stage. Skjelmose almost tried too hard to make the break, he just couldn’t catch the right one despite multiple attempts – his legs still look good though. Van Gils won the sprint from the peloton but never looked like making the break.

Stage 12 Preview

The first in a string of mountain stages over the weekend and into next week that will go a long way to deciding the winner of this year’s Tour de France. It’s short at just 138km and the first 80km are pretty flat which will make it difficult for the lighter climbers to make the break.

There’s a significant unclassified climb that peaks with about 40km to go before the stage ends in a summit finish up the hors-categorie Grand Colombier – a long, brutal climb of 17.4km at an average gradient of 7.1%. In detail, it goes up in three steps: a hard start of 7km at 8.5% (max 12%), a levelling-off of 2km, 4km at 8.5% (max 12%), 1km rest, then 3km at 6.5% before a double-figure kick up to the line.  

Stage 12 Contenders

A classic hockey-stick profile with a summit finish up a famous climb definitely tilts the stage towards a GC win, but you never know. Will Jumbo-Visma or UAE Team Emirates be confident enough to take the fight to their rival, burn their own resources and risk being counter-punched? If not, the heat might not be turned up early enough for a break to be caught, so it’s best to play both scenarios.

Jumbo-Visma had several riders trying to make the break on stage 12 – and finally managed it with Tiesj Benoot – which is unusual tactics for a team that knows it’s got some very tough days in the mountains ahead. Perhaps just a show of strength or mind games before the real fight begins, but it won’t look very clever if Jonas Vingegaard (4/1) is on his own halfway up the Grand Colombier.

Unsurprisingly, Tadej Pogačar (11/8), already a winner up this climb in 2020, is the stage favourite. He’s had the edge over Vingegaard over the last two summit finishes – up to Cauterets on stage 6 where he clawed back 24secs and on stage 9 up the Puy de Dôme where he closed another 8secs – but things can definitely swing back Vingegaard’s way. We simply don’t know, but it’ll be exciting to find out!

It’s difficult to look past these two for the win, but there’s not a huge amount of value in the prices. Ineos Grenadiers may want to put pressure on Bora-Hansgrohe and Jai Hindley (33/1) who showed some vulnerability on the Puy de Dôme, losing 20secs to Carlos Rodríguez (33/1) and Tom Pidcock (40/1). That was an atypical climb so was it just a blip or a direction of travel?

Pidcock especially appears to be getting stronger and could even be eyeing up a podium spot on his first time testing himself on GC over three weeks. However, he’s said that if a top 5 isn’t happening, he may well cut the engines, lose a chunk of time and chase stages. If the big two start looking at each other, then a late attack may have a chance and Pidcock would be a good candidate for this.

Another would be Jayco-AlUla’s Simon Yates (28/1), though he was dropped from the front group on stage 12 during the endless fight for the break so may still be feeling the effects of his tumble a few days ago.

If there’s hesitation over which team puts the hammer down in the peloton, then the break may have a chance. A well-organised group could get a decent lead, especially if some good climbers have a few strong rouleurs to keep the pace on.  However, they’d still probably need a minimum of 4mins at the bottom of the Grand Colombier.  

Friday is Bastille Day, the national day of France, so plenty of French riders will fancy putting on a show. It was surprising that Thibaut Pinot (25/1) couldn’t make a difference on the final second-category climb on stage 12 but then they’d all worked very hard just to make the break, so maybe that’s harsh. He’s now just 6mins 33secs off GC, which is a threat to the top 5 and it’s unlikely he’ll be allowed to get up the road here. He’d be better off losing time on the Grand Colombier and going for the break on Saturday.

A better option for Groupama-FDJ is Valentin Madouas (33/1) who’s been a little quiet considering he came in to the race off the back of winning the national championships. Using the Swiss powerhouse Stefan Küng to get Madouas into the break and then drive it along would be useful too.  

Puy de Dôme winner Michael Woods (16/1) was active on stage 12 showing he still has decent legs and maybe fancies doubling up. His price is very short though. It doesn’t seem an ideal day for Giulio Ciccone (25/1) to pick up KOM points with just the final climb to play for. He took a tumble and bloodied his knees on stage 12 too, so better to wait till Saturday.

Will Felix Gall (20/1) go for the break? If he did, he’d probably be the strongest climber in it, but he appears content on measuring himself against the GC favourites and at only 3mins 13secs off the top 10 may well be marked out of it. With greater scope is his AG2R Citroën teammate Ben O’Connor (40/1) who seems certain to try.

Finally, Mattias Skjelmose (50/1) was very unlucky not to make the break on stage 12. He appeared to be spearheading every move, until the one that eventually went. Skjelmose looked good though – fresh and motivated, and may try his luck again here. A piggyback ride into the break from someone like Jasper Stuyven or Mads Pedersen would be ideal.

It’ll almost certainly be a dust-up between the big two, but at some juicier prices, let’s go for a late attack or a breakaway win.

Stage 12 Bets

Tom Pidcock 0.5pts each way (5 places) @40/1

Mattias Skjelmose 0.5pts each way (5 places) @50/1

Posted 21:54 BST 13th July 2023

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Tour de France at Oddschecker

[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

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