Vuelta a España 2022

Stage 13 – Ronda > Montilla (168.4km)

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Stage 12 Result

1st Richard Carapaz (25/1)

2nd Wilco Kelderman (50/1)

3rd Marc Soler (25/1)

Stage 12 Bets

1pt each way (3 places) Carlos Rodríguez @40/1

1pt each way (3 places) Mark Padun @14/1

1pt each way (3 places) Rein Taaramäe @33/1

1pt each way (3 places) Gina Mäder @28/1

0.5pts each way (3 places) Jan Polanc @66/1 – 4th

Close again. Polanc essentially finished third but got overrun in the last few hundred metres by his teammate Marc Soler who, as appears to be his style, came from the clouds despite being dropped several kilometres lower down the mountain. The lack of bookmakers offering four each way places on the Vuelta didn’t help either.

Stage 13 Preview

We’re still in Andalucía for a designated flat stage starting from Ronda and travelling north towards Córdoba. However, there are plenty of ups and downs which may make it difficult for sprint teams to control, and breakaway specialists or even opportunistic attackers may fancy their chances of taking the day.

The final is tricky with the road rising steadily over the last 6km before, as the rider turn past the flamme rouge, the road kicks up to around 5% (peaking near to 7%) all the way to the line – yet another factor which may put off sprint teams from taking responsibility. So a few scenarios could play out and the staking plan should reflect that.

Stage 13 Contenders

Opportunities for the fast men are few and far between but with the tough uphill drag finish will there be enough sprint teams willing to pull and bring back the break? There should be two for certain – Trek-Segafredo for green jersey wearer Mads Pedersen and BikeExchange-Jayco for stage 11 winner Kaden Groves. Both will be fine over the hillier terrain and the finish particularly suits the Dane who can use his power sprint to overcome those that maybe have a higher top-end speed on the flat. He appears to have been at or near his best form for months now – since the Belgium Tour back in June – but could his chase for green jersey points have finally blunted his finishing speed? Maybe, but he’s well fancied here and is the 2/1 favourite to win stage 13.

Groves threatened on the earlier stages and duly took his win in Cabo de Gata. He is arguably the fastest sprinter left in the race – though to be fair there’s not much between the front three or four – but suffered too often from poor positioning. With Simon Yates out due to Covid, BikeExchange can devote all of the energy towards delivering Groves where he needs to be. Whether he can outsprint Pedersen is another question but his confidence will be sky high. The double-figure odds on the Aussie look decent.

But for a slice of luck in running, our stage 11 pick, Bora-Hansgrohe’s Danny Van Poppel, could’ve got his wheel up for the win. As it was, he did well to squeeze himself through traffic for second. He looks to be packing plenty of speed and this uphill finish is good for him which suggests that he should go close again. No 12/1 this time though, a best price of 10/3 is all we’re getting.

Tim Merlier came into the Vuelta is the standout favourite to land multiple sprint victories. So much so that teams refused to lend Alpecin-Deceuninck a hand on stage 2 to pull back the break. But things just haven’t gone for the Belgian champion. There were excuses on the two Dutch flat stages, but he again fell short on stage 11 despite having a pretty clear run. At the moment, things appear to be going in the wrong direction and others are better suited by this tougher parcours.

It wouldn’t surprise at all if Cofidis’ Bryan Coquard made the frame on a perfect finish for him. But despite being a prolific winner, he consistently falls short at the very top level and will likely have a couple in front of him. The 12/1 doesn’t appeal.

Deep into the second week of a Grand Tour and strange things can happen. Even if the will is there to bring back a break, it’s the legs that count as we saw on stage 7 and Jesús Herrada’s unexpected win into Cistierna. By his own admission, Fred Wright messed up the sprint, expecting a downhill tailwind run to the line rather than the uphill headwind one he got. Both are decent candidates again for a breakaway or even late attacks on a finish that suits.

We haven’t yet seen a Thomas de Grendt special and, even though we have no mountains on stage 13, his rouleur qualities would test the tiring legs behind to the max. Groupama-FDJ’s Quentin Pacher could threaten from a break, late attack, or even the expected reduced sprint to the line.

Finally, following Richard Carapaz’s bounce back to form on stage 12, Ineos Grenadiers may fancy throwing someone forward in the hunt for more stage success. Ben Turner would be a good candidate and given his strength an excellent ally to anyone he’s up the road with. A speculative each-way interest on the man from Doncaster completes the selections.

Stage 13 Bets

3pts win Danny van Poppel @10/3

1pt each way (3 places) Fred Wright @25/1

0.5pts each way (3 places) Thomas de Gendt @80/1

0.25pts each way (3 places) Ben Turner @250/1

Posted 2131 BST Thu 1st Sep 2022

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Vuelta a España at Oddschecker