Tour de France 2024
Stage 14 – Pau > Saint-Lary-Soulan Pla d’Adet (152km)
Sat 13th July | Scheduled start: 13:05 CET
Profile
Stage 14 Preview
Where: The first of two mountain stages in the Pyrenees.
Stage Type: Mountain.
Weather: Very pleasant. Mid- to high teens and dry.
Climbs: The hors-category Col du Tourmalet (19km at 7.4% with double-digit gradients in the final 3km) peaks with 60km to go followed by the second-category Hourquette d’Ancizan (8.2km at 5.1%) before a summit finish to Pla d’Adet (10.6% at 7.9% and averages over 10% for the first 3km).
Start: Gently rising ground for the first 70km. Lighter climbers may need to piggy-back with a rouleur teammate to make the break.
Finish: The final climb is hardest at the bottom and it levels off to some extent in the final 3km, so winning moves should be made early.
Stage suits: GC favourites and climbers.
Breakaway chances: Decent, but it depends on the motivations of GC teams behind as there’s plenty of uphill terrain to bring them back if they want to.
What will happen?: UAE Team Emirates inexplicably chased down a strong break on stage 11 – a dumb move which ultimately backfired, changed the momentum of the race and could turn out to be the decisive moment in this year’s Tour de France.
Again on stage 13, when it was obvious Adam Yates wasn’t going to be allowed to gain significant time, they could have called him back and allowed the break to take the day, but didn’t. So they’ve managed to piss off a number of teams whose chances of a stage win are fast running out, not to mention the cycling betting community who of course are the most important (joke).
Pogačar still leads by over a minute and having lost Juan Ayuso will surely now ride more defensively and force Visma Lease a Bike to take them on. A summit finish often favours the GC men but with the Tourmalet being tackled so far from home this one could well end up with a breakaway win.
Any breakaway winner will need to be an excellent climber, obviously, with plenty of time on GC to be allowed up the road. If it does come back together, it’s very difficult to look past either a Pogačar or Vingegaard win.
Stage 14 Contenders
Jonas Vingegaard (3/1; 4.0) is now favourite to win his third Tour de France after an incredible performance on stage 11 just three months after his horror crash in the Basque Country. May well now have Pogačar’s number and will be looking to claw back time this weekend.
Tadej Pogačár (7/2; 4.5) suffered a big psychological blow in defeat on stage 11. Will be wary of a repeat here and so may well curb his attacking instincts and follow. Despite being turned over in the sprint, he’s still favourite if he and Vingegaard come to the line together, but will they?
Breakaway contenders:
Simon Yates (8/1; 9.0) is short considering he’s shown very little so far this Tour, but his pedigree is worthy of respect.
Richard Carapaz (11/1; 12.0) is looking combative on the bike and appears to be riding into some very good form. Big chances but was outclimbed by teammate Ben Healy (33/1; 34.0) on stage 11 albeit on punchy terrain that better suited the Irishman.
Tom Pidcock (25/1; 26.0) came close to a win on the gravel stage so his legs are good. Will he be the best climber in the break should he make it though?
Romain Bardet (28/1; 29.0) missed out on stage 11, both from the breakaway and attacking through the crowd on his home roads. Has a stage win and the class to double up.
Wout Poels (33/1; 34.0) would be a favourite should he make the front group. Bahrain Victorious have lost two riders to sickness in the last few days which puts you off somewhat.
Santiago Buitrago (33/1; 34.0) is less than 10mins off GC and just outside the top 10 which could make him a marked man, but he’s definitely riding into some form. If in the break, has the class to finish it off.
Jai Hindley (40/1; 41.0) is free to chase stages after Primož Roglič abandoned but hasn’t been super prominent in the race so far and others appeal more.
Oier Lazkano (50/1; 51.0) was the strongest, along with Ben Healy, out the break on stage 11. Showed great climbing form at the Dauphiné and, even though this will be very much at the limits of his capabilities, can’t be underestimated. The flat start also helps – Lazkano has to be in the pot.
Javier Romo (66/1; 67.0) finished alongside Simon Yates on stage 11 so looks much better value at almost ten times the price.
Tobias Halland Johannesson (66/1; 67.0) has shown really well during the Tour, including on stage 12, but so far race dynamics haven’t fallen his way. Is a top climber with a fast finish, should it come to that.
Stage 14 Bets
This is 50/50 between a GC or breakaway win as we simply don’t know how UAE Team Emirates and Visma Lease a Bike are going to approach the stage. It feels sometimes that teams like to appear dominant to try to take a psychological advantage even when it’s not in their best interests.
So we need a GC saver as well as some breakaway contenders at tasty prices.
Tadej Pogačar 2pts win @7/2 – 1st
Ben Healy 1pt each way (4 places) @28/1
Oier Lazkano 0.5pts each way (4 places) @50/1
Javier Romo 0.5pts each way (4 places) @66/1
Posted 23:10 BST Fri 12th June 2024
Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
Stage 14 Result
1st Tadej Pogačar (7/2)
2nd Jonas Vingegaard (3/1F)
3rd Remco Evenepoel (25/1)
4th Carlos Rodríguez (40/1)
[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
