Giro d’Italia 2023

Stage 14 – Sierre > Cassano Magnago (194km)

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Stage 13 Result

1st Einer Rubio (40/1)

2nd Thibaut Pinot (20/1)

3rd Alex Cepeda (22/1)

4th Derek Gee (125/1)

Stage 13 Bets

Joäo Almeida 1pt each way (4 places) @20/1 – 7th

Brandon McNulty 1pt each way (4 places) @25/1

Thibaut Pinot 1pt each way (4 places) @20/1 – 2nd

Einer Rubio 0.5pts each way (3 places) @40/1 – 1st

The full five caps on the chapeau-meter, but how did Pinot not win that? Heartbreak for him – hopefully he’ll get his win before the end of the race. The amended route tipped the balance in favour of the GC men, but Pinot’s aggressive ride combined with a lack of action in the pink jersey group ensured the break stayed away. McNulty was on domestique duty for Almeida (as it seems Jay Vine won’t be doing it) and the Portuguese won the sprint among the favourites behind, though not unfortunately for 4th. But let’s not be greedy.

Stage 14 Preview

A funny old profile for stage 14 of the Giro d’Italia – how many designated ‘flat’ stages start with a first-category climb? And it’s substantial at 20km long at an average gradient of 6.5% which takes us back over the Swiss border into Italy. After a technical descent there’s a full 90km of flat road before the finish in Cassano Magnago which will allow teams to regroup and see if chasing the breakaway is possible or worthwhile.

Considering the depleted number of sprint teams and the general fatigue in the peloton, the break has a good chance, but it will all depend on its constituents and the motivation (or lack of) behind. There’s a right turn just before the flamme rouge, otherwise it’s a pretty straightforward entry but the road does rise up a few degrees inside the final kilometre, so don’t kick for home too early!

Stage 14 Contenders

Sprint teams could try to police a small break in the 35km of largely flat road before they hit the first-category Passo del Sempione. They could then ride the climb at a pace that is comfortable for their sprinters before starting the chase after the descent. However, if the break hasn’t settled by the foot of the climb, anyone with legs will be able to jump up the road and it will be difficult to control. At this point, sprint teams may think it’s a better option to get someone in the break themselves which will do for any thoughts of a chase and the break should stay away. So it could be a dynamic situation and is a difficult one to call.

Breakaway candidates for this are unlikely to include the punchier, one-day rider sort as Sunday looks perfect for someone with those attributes and a much more obvious breakaway day. Also, a big break will almost certainly start to split up in the long valley road as rouleur-types will have to try to drop the quicker men before they get close to home.

Which teams could ride? Alpecin-Deceuninck have lost their main sprinter, Kaden Groves, so their hopes would be with Stefano Oldani – but it would be better for him to get in the breakaway rather than rely on his sprint at the end where he could find a few quicker.  

Mads Pedersen has also gone home, so Trek-Segafredo will definitely want representation in the break. Toms Skujiņš is absolutely flying and this could be another opportunity for him.

Movistar still have Fernando Gaviria but he was very banged up after his crash on stage 11 and had to go for X-rays to check nothing was broken. He’ll be trying to heal a bit more before the next sprint opportunity on Wednesday. Instead, why not give Will Barta some licence to get up the road? The American is having an excellent Giro with solid results in the TTs and finished stage 13 only a few minutes off the favourites, showing his climbing legs are very much operational. At triple-figure odds, he’s worth a small punt for a team that will be on a high after Einer Rubio’s victory.

Mark Cavendish is riding pretty well but how far back will he be by the crest of the climb? Perhaps too far for Astana-Qazaqstan to be thinking of spearheading a chase.

Which just leaves Bahrain-Victorious who, in the absence of Mads Pedersen, appear to have the quickest man left in the race – Jonathan Milan. But one team, or even two teams, won’t be able to bring back a group which is likely to be strong and super motivated. How about Bahrain try to get someone up the road themselves? It’s been a few years since we’ve seen the best of 35-year-old Andrea Pasqualon but he’s had a really good Giro shepherding Milan through the sprints. He’s an excellent descender and packs a fast finish – let’s have a small interest at 80/1 on the experienced Italian.

Israel-Premier Tech have had a super impressive Giro – Derek Gee has made the places three times at triple-figure odds. When will we learn? Well, not today – let’s dodge him after his exploits on stage 13 and go for a couple of his teammates. Simon Clarke has already gone close to a stage win, can climb, can sprint, and is canny in a breakaway. And finally, young Italian Marco Frigo came into the race with a good seventh from a break at the Tour of the Alps and followed that up with a fifth just a couple of days ago looking a million dollars. At a huge price, let’s add him to the selection pot.

It’s the kind of day where you could make a case for a number of riders. Time to spin the roulette wheel on this one – it’s anybody’s!

Stage 14 Bets

Toms Skujiņš 1pt each way (4 places) @20/1

Simon Clarke 0.5pts each way (4 places) @33/1

Andrea Pasqualon 0.5pts each way (4 places) @80/1

Will Barta 0.5pts each way (4 places) @100/1

Marco Frigo 0.25pts each way (4 places) @250/1

Posted 21.31 BST 19th May 2023

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