Tour de France 2023

Stage 14 – Annemasse > Morzine Les Portes du Soleil (151.5km)

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Stage 13 Result

1st Michał Kwiatkowski (200/1)

2nd Maxim Van Gils (250/1)

3rd Tadej Pogačar (5/4F)

4th Jonas Vingegaard (4/1)

5th Tom Pidcock (40/1)

Stage 13 Bets

Tom Pidcock 0.5pts each way (5 places) @40/1 – 5th

Mattias Skjelmose 0.5pts each way (5 places) @50/1

Somehow the break stayed away – chapeau Kwiato on an incredible ride. Luckily, it didn’t affect the selections with Pidcock sneaking a place. Right man, wrong day with Van Gils in second at a huge price. Skjelmose tried for the break but when it didn’t happen, stayed out of trouble and saved his legs for another day … stage 14 maybe?

Stage 14 Preview

The riders start near the Swiss border within sight of Lake Geneva on a huge day in the Alps for the general classification favourites. There are five classified climbs including three first-category and ending with the hors-catégorie Col de Joux Plane (11.6km at 8.5%). The fireworks should start on the tougher second half of this climb where a 5km section averages 9.5% before a tricky 12km descent to the line.

Unlike stage 13 which started with 80km of flat road, the stronger climbers will find it easier to make the break with a third-category rise from the gun and, if it doesn’t settle on that, a first-category straight afterwards should make sure. Whether it makes it all the way is another question.

Stage 14 Contenders

A sawtooth profile with multiple classified climbs is usually good news for a breakaway win, but the bonus seconds available at the top of the last climb complicates things. Tadej Pogačar (9/2) will fancy mopping those up to edge ever closer to yellow jersey wearer Jonas Vingegaard (14/1), who he now trails by just 9secs.

UAE Team Emirates delivered a show of strength on stage 13, pulling the peloton all day and driving hard up the Grand Colombier. With 7.5km to go, Jumbo-Visma were down to just one climbing domestique in Sepp Kuss, whilst UAE still had Marc Soler, Felix Großschartner, Rafał Majka and Adam Yates. In the end, the 8secs gain was scant return for all the hard work and they may pay for it over the weekend.

Were Jumbo-Visma short-handed when it mattered or were they just saving a bit for more challenging stages? We should see on stage 14 which is primed for the kind of long-range coordinated assault that exposed a weakness in Pogačar last year. That surely is what Vingegaard is banking on because at the moment, he’s on course to lose the Tour.

The fast, technical descent off the final climb will definitely interest Tom Pidcock (20/1) who is increasingly looking like the third strongest rider in the race. He’ll need to stay within touching distance of the big two at the crest, but if he does, has a great shot at stage victory.

This is a big day in the King of the Mountains competition with a maximum of 52 points available. Neilson Powless (80/1) currently leads with 46 points, so a rider could theoretically start the day on zero and end it in the polka dot jersey. The riders who’ve looked most interested so far are Giulio Ciccone (18/1), Tobias Johannessen (25/1) and Ruben Guerreiro (40/1), so expect these riders to get up the road. Of these, Johannessen looks the most likely stage winner, though Ciccone, on one of his good days, would also be a threat.  

Thibaut Pinot (25/1) didn’t go for the break on stage 13, preferring to save his legs for the weekend. But he then rode hard up the Grand Colombier which means he’s still just 9mins 8secs off GC and only 2mins off the top 10. Surely it would’ve made more sense to sit up, lose 10mins and guarantee you’d be given rope to get up the road on another day. As it is, he’s on the bubble of whether rival teams, protecting top 5 and top 10 spots, will let him go.

Mattias Skjelmose (14/1) tried for the break on stage 13, piggybacking off Mads Pedersen as suggested, but it didn’t come off and, unlike Pinot, the Danish champion played no part in the final. So he’s a shoo-in to go for the break here and must be included in the selection pot.

AG2R Citroën took a prominent position at the foot of the Grand Colombier which suggests they’re really backing Felix Gall (14/1) for a top 10 GC bid. Assuming the strategy is to stay with the favourites, he’s unbackable for the break, but obviously would be a massive threat should he go for it. Ben O’Connor (25/1) is no longer in any GC game so seems certain to go forward to try to better his third on stage 10.

Wout van Aert (25/1) appeared to take a bit of a day off on Friday, so he’s short odds to be up the road as a satellite rider on stage 14. But, with Jumbo-Visma still empty handed, don’t rule him out of going for the stage win instead.

With Michał Kwiatkowski (50/1) getting his stage win, Ineos Grenadiers may feel they can have a free swing at landing another or at worst have satellite riders up the road for their GC men. Omar Fraile (200/1) has been particularly keen but the better option is Jonathan Castroviejo (66/1) who could make it a hattrick of Basque winners following Pello Bilbao (80/1) and Ion Izagirre (25/1).

Matteo Jorgenson (28/1) seemed particularly dejected after his third place on stage 12, frustrated at the lack of cooperation amongst his breakaway buddies. But he’s clearly got good legs and if up the road, things could fall his way. This parcours, especially the last climb, might just be too much for the American though.

Assuming he’s recovered from his efforts on the Puy de Dôme, this is another great stage for Michael Woods (18/1), who predicted (incorrectly) that stage 13 was not one for the breakaway and so saved his legs. The steep inclines up the final ascent are in his favour and a second stage win is not out of the question. And why not take his Israel-Premier Tech teammate Krists Neilands (50/1) along too? So unlucky on stage 10, another long-range effort might just come off.

The balance is in the favour of the breakaway, but a GC saver is wise.

Stage 14 Bets

Tadej Pogačar 1pt win @9/2

Mattias Skjelmose 1pt each way (4 places) @12/1

Michael Woods 1pt each way (4 places) @18/1

Jonathan Castroviejo 0.5pts each way (4 places) @66/1

Posted 20:05 BST 14th July 2023

Prices in brackets are to win the stage. They’re correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Tour de France at Oddschecker

[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

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